sws – ellen tordesillas

The usefulness of election surveys

Published by Ellen on September 27, 2015

Surveys if conducted by professionals and executed with integrity are gauge of the sentiments of the people.

I have to stress “executed with integrity” because during election season, there are surveys and surveys. One has to check on the background of the survey firms, who commissioned the survey as well as the questions asked.

As Sen. Grace Poe said, thanking her supporters for their trust that put her as the frontrunner among presidential aspirants, “Surveys help us check if we’re on the right track.”

But she said, “We derive our inspiration from the needs and aspirations of our country, with or without surveys.”

Poe declared her presidential candidacy for the 2016 elections last Sept. 16. The next day, fellow senator who is also known as her mentor, Chiz Escudero, announced that he is Poe’s running mate.

Aquino still in deep slumber despite wake up call

Published by Ellen on October 17, 2013

Mahar Mangahas commented on this column in my FB wall:

“Ellen, the SWS report about the 2013Q2 rating of the ADMINISTRATION was NOT a recycled piece; it was simply the final release from the 2013Q2 SWS survey. It is different from the SWS report on the 2013Q2 rating of the PERSONAL PERFORMANCE OF PNoy, which was released much earlier. Our report last week on the 2013Q3 personal rating of Pnoy was the first of a series from the third quarter survey; more will follow in due course, including the rating of the Administration (not the person) again. http://www.sws.org.ph/pr20130923.htm

“Ellen, here is the earlier SWS report about the 2nd quarter rating of PNoy, that you claimed was “recycled.” SWS does not do recycling; publicity is not our occupation.
http://www.sws.org.ph/pr20130729.htm”

Now we know why the three-month old survey of the Social Weather Station showing a high public satisfaction for the Aquino administration was recycled last Sept. 19.

At the height of the pork barrel/Janet Napoles scandal and the bungling of the Zamboanga conflict involving the Nur Misuari’s Moro National Liberation Front, the SWS survey conducted June 28-30 and was reported about in July was released again and was carried by major media outlets.

Precision journalism

Published by Ellen on June 25, 2011

There’s a lot I have to learn writing about survey results.

By Mahar Mangahas
Philippine Daily Inquirer

The June 3-6, 2011 Social Weather Survey, reported through (but not commissioned by) BusinessWorld last Tuesday, has 64 percent satisfied and 18 percent dissatisfied with President Aquino, implying a 64 – 18 = +46 net satisfaction rating. SWS classifies net ratings in the range of +30 to +49 as Good.

The previous SWS survey of March 4-7, 2011 had found 69 percent satisfied and 18 percent dissatisfied, for a 69 – 18 = +51 net satisfaction rating, which SWS calls Very Good (from +50 to +69).

Between March and June, therefore, gross satisfaction fell by 5 points. Since dissatisfaction was unchanged, net satisfaction fell by 5 points also, by simple arithmetic.

How Aquino can regain lost ground

Published by Ellen on April 5, 2011

Reacting to the latest Social Weather Station survey results that showed his satisfaction rating dipping 13 points, the biggest so far in his 10-month presidency, President Aquino blamed media for not reporting about the good things his administration has accomplished and that from now, his media office would be more aggressive in its propaganda blitz.

Aquino’s deputy spokesperson Abigail Valte said, “P-Noy said that sometimes we are too shy because baka sabihin nagbubuhat kami ng sariling bangko. So bear with us kung kakapal ang mukha namin.”

Malacanang’s misreading of the message of the survey results reminds me of the story of the “Moron and the Beetle”. The moron was conducting an experiment what would happen to the bettle if his legs were cut. With all the six legs of the beetle intact, he ordered “Move” while tapping the table. The beetle moved quickly.

Ostrich syndrome

Published by Ellen on October 8, 2010

by Amando Doronila
Philippine Daily Inquirer

President Aquino reported to the nation yesterday the “significant” accomplishments of his first 100 days in office, diminished by a 23-point slump in the satisfaction rating for his administration.

The Social Weather Stations had published on Wednesday the results of a survey conducted from September 24 to 27, a month after the August 23 hostage-taking debacle. The results showed that the President’s net approval rating dipped to +60 percent from +83 percent net trust rating just before his inauguration on June 30. The net satisfaction rating is the difference between the percentage of the satisfied and dissatisfied. The survey showed 71 percent of the respondents were satisfied with the President’s performance, while 11 percent were dissatisfied.

The survey came as a rude wake-up call and confirmed observations that the hostage fiasco has eroded the administration’s popularity more deeply than it would admit. The survey was the first taken within 90 days of the Aquino presidency. Although SWS described the net satisfaction rating as “very good,” it also discounted it, saying that President Aquino’s score is not the highest initial rating for a Philippine president.

Trust equals confidence

Published by Ellen on July 18, 2010

The latest survey of the Social Weather Station should encourage President Benigno Aquino III to be his own man and assert his leadership as influence groups exert pressure on him, some out of a genuine desire to help him and others to push their own agenda.

The survey conducted June 25 to 28, a few days before Aquino’s inauguration as the country’s 15th president, showed that 88 per cent of adult Filipinos said they have much trust on him while only four percent said had little trust in him. Eight per cent were undecided.

Vice President Binay also got good ratings with 77 per cent trusting him much and only eight per cent have “little trust” in him. Fourteen per cent were undecided.

Eighty-eight percent is very high. Higher than his mother’s high trust rating of plus 72 in October 1986, eight months after she ascended into the presidency through People Power that ended more than two decades of Marcos dictatorship. Higher also than the March 1995 excellent rating of Pope John Paul , whose Philippine visit two months earlier attracted a five million throng at the Rizal Park.

P for Patience,not People Power

Published by Ellen on May 7, 2010

In the presentation of Mahar Mangahas of Social Weather Station of public opinion on the May 10 election, there were items that are very relevant in the wake of calls for People Power by some sectors which has become louder with the malfunctioning of the Precinct Count Optical Scan or PCOS, the thing that holds the future of Philippine democracy.

One item showed the high expectations of the people for Monday’s elections. SWS asked their opinion last February on the “Expected accuracy of the vote-counting machine at one’s precinct in the 2010 elections compared to the past elections.”

Twenty-five percent said “definitely more accurate” and 57 percent said “probably more accurate.” That’s a very high of 82 percent of Filipinos putting their trust on the still untested election automation. Only three percent were non-believers and 14 percent said “probably not more accurate.”

Aquino on the brink of victory; Mar ties with Jojo

Published by Ellen on May 7, 2010

Last month, people say the vice presidential race would be a walk in the park for Liberal Party bet Mar Roxas as he pulled away…

Maaring ipilit ni Arroyo ang sarili

Published by Ellen on April 15, 2009

Sa tatlong taong tinanong ng Social Weather Station kung gusto pa nila na si Gloria Arroyo pa rin ang nasa Malacañang paglampas ng June 30, 2010, dalawa ang nagsabing “ayaw ko.”

Ngunit ang tanong: may epekto ba ito kay Arroyo, sa kanyang pamilya at sa kanyang mga alagad? Kung meron man, yun ay lalong maghahanap ng iba pang paraan na tuloy ang kailang ligaya lampas ng 2010 at kung hindi talaga mapalawig ang pagpanatili sa kapangyarihan, paano nila mapruteksyunan ang kanilang sarili.

Nilabas ng SWS noong Martes ang survey na kanilang isinagawa noong Pebrero 20-23 sa tanong na, “Kayo po ba ay sang-ayon o hindi sang-ayon sa Charter Change na papayagan si Pangulong Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo na manatili bilang PINUNONG OPISYAL NG PILIPINAS nang lampas sa Hunyo 30, 2010?”

Tag: sws