LP won’t need Grace if Binay withdraws

We trust Sen. Grace Poe would be astute in dealing with the reported courtship by the Liberal Party for the 2016 elections with no less than President Aquino and Interior Secretary Mar Roxas leading the wooing.

Although the talks were about the 2016 elections, Grace said there was no discussion on whether the Liberal Party is getting her as its standard bearer or running mate of Roxas, who, reports said, has told his party mates that he wants to push through in 2016 his 2010 aborted presidential plans.

This is supported by LP stalwarts Budget Secretary Butch Abad and Transportation Secretary Emilio Joseph “Jun” Abaya saying Roxas will carry the party’s banner in 2016.

Senate President Franklin Drilon even went further. Calling Roxas LP’s “presumptive candidate,” he called on Roxas to declare his intention for the presidency now.

“I would take the position that Mar Roxas should now declare his intention. If he is indeed interested- and I think he is – he should declare now his intention that he would want to present himself as a candidate for the Presidency in 2016,” Drilon is quoted in media reports.

Drilon also said he would “prefer a member of the party” as their standard bearer.

Does it mean then what they are offering Grace is to be the running mate of Roxas?

Why would Grace agree to that arrangement when as survey shows, she is the only one who has a good chance of beating the opposition candidate, Vice President Jejomar Binay?

The March 20-23 2015 survey of Social Weather Stations showed an ascending Poe closing in on a consistently descending Binay. Asked to choose the best leader to succeed Aquino, 31 percent went for Poe, a 10 percentage points increase from the December 2015 score of 21 percent. Binay, on the other hand, continued his decline from 37 percent last December to 36 percent last March.

Roxas, who was third, was also on the decline. From 19 percent last December, he was down last March to 15 points.

A Roxas vs Binay contest will assure the now- beleaguered vice president the presidency.

If the LP thinks that Poe’s popularity would rub on Roxas if they make her his running mate, they should review the country’s election history. The best example is the 1992 elections when the popularity of Joseph Estrada as guest vice presidential candidate of the Nationalist People’s Coalition was not enough to make businessman Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco, Jr.win the presidency. (Fidel Ramos won in that election.)

But, will Binay be in the presidential race in 2016?

Binay’s tormentor, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, said with the Court of Appeals freeze order on vice president’s bank accounts, he expects the opposition leader to withdraw by July or August.

Common sense: A presidential campaign would cost at least P10 billion. The bank freeze effectively turned off the faucet for the oil that will grease Binay’s presidential bid.

Even if Binay had stashed billions out of the reach of the court, it is doubtful if he would spend that in an election campaign. Years of treating Makati a Binay fiefdom is catching up on him and his family.

The Sandiganbayan is expected to decide on the graft case against his wife, former Makati mayor Elenita Binay soon. A conviction is a strong possibility.

The Supreme Court is also expected to decide soon on the Ombudsman’s petition to order the Court of Appeals to lift its temporary restraining order on the suspension of Makati Mayor JunJun Binay. If the CA TRO is lifted, Junjun will be out of City Hall and the Binays will lose control of their cash cow.

If Binay is out of the presidential race, the playing field would be leveled among the low-raters. Mar has a fighting chance against say, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr or Alan Cayetano or Chiz Escudero.

The LP won’t need Grace Poe.