If the fight is three-way – Rodrigo Duterte, Jojo Binay and Roxas, Duterte will win.
If it’s between Binay and Roxas, Binay will win.
If it’s between Duterte and Roxas, Duterte will win.
He should take a look at the latest nationwide survey by the Magdalo Group conducted last Dec. 9- 11 among 2,914 respondents. It has a margin of error of 1.8 percent.
The Magdalo group has been conducting surveys since the first senatorial run of its leader, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, in 2007. The survey is designed and supervised by Trillanes’ chief-of-staff , Asian Institute of Management alumnus Rolando “Oyie” Averilla.
They survey took place after the Comelec’s second division decided to disqualify Poe on the issue of 10-year residency requirement for president. The last day of the survey was when the Comelec’s first division decided to cancel Poe’s certificate of candidacy.
Without doubt Comelec’s decision adversely affected Poe’s campaign. Many believe she is now out of the race. In her public meetings now, she spends a lot of time explaining that she is still a candidate and her legal team has brought the issue to the Supreme Court where they believe they have a better chance to get justice than in the Roxas’ lawyers- dominated Comelec.
It was also after Duterte’s cursing of Pope Francis which generated a lot of negative reactions including from the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines’ president Archbishop Socrates Villegas.
Following Duterte and Poe were Vice President Jejomar Binay with 23.6 percent; former DILG Secretary Mar Roxas with 13.5 percent; Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago with 4 percent; and former Ambassador Roy Señeres with 0.1 percent.
That means he cannot go lower than his present reduced rating which is still much higher than Roxas’.
If a plunder case filed against him would be filed at the Sandiganbayan and he would be jailed without bail, he can continue his candidacy as long as he is not convicted.
The Aquino government’s only hope to eliminate Binay is for the Ombudsman, in an administrative case against him decides to perpetually disqualify him from public office just like what happened to his son, former Makati mayor Junjun Binay.
If that happens, Roxas then would have to reckon with Duterte, whose candidacy has been accepted by the Comelec.
It will then be a Duterte presidency in 2016. Oh, God.
It is interesting to note in the Magdalo survey by religion, Duterte was number one among Roman Catholics despite cursing Pope Francis. He was also the favorite choice of Born Again Christians and Protestants, Islam and other religions.
He is not the top choice of the Iglesia ni Cristo who preferred Poe and Binay.
Not surprisingly in the survey by gender, Duterte scored high among males: 35.8 percent as against Poe’s 24.2 percent, Binay’s 23.4, and Roxas’ 12.2. Among females, it’s a tie between Duterte (28.3 percent) and Poe (27.7 percent). Binay got 23.7 percent while Roxas, 14.7 percent.
Congressman Francisco Ashley Acedillo, Magdalo party list representative, said,“One of the observations during the survey is that a significant number of respondents presumed that Senator Poe was already disqualified in running for President, or were asking if she was already disqualified. Since our researchers are not allowed to engage with the respondents to avoid influencing their answers, this issue was not clarified to them.”
Acedillo said, “We expect these figures and the candidates’ ranking will continue to notably change, especially when the COMELEC en banc and the Supreme Court, eventually, will release their decision on Sen. Poe’s and Mayor Duterte’s candidacy.”
Magdalo is supporting Poe’s presidential bid. Magdalo member Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV is running for vice-president as an independent candidate and carries Poe as his president.
Friends of Roxas at COMELEC prefer Duterte over him. 🙂
O baka in the final ruling dun nila sasalyahin si Dutz.
Mahimbing pa si Noynoy, poor Mar.
Omg… a Duterte presidency, mukhang santo si Marcos at Gloria pag nagkataon. Inangkopo!
most Pinoys voted for PNoy, though i did not, so I have no choice but defer to the wishes of the people: he is my President, too.
i cannot say the same for Gloria, as she CLEARLY stole her way to the presidency.
erap won. fair and square. he was my president, too.
if most Pinoys gives Duterte the fist bump, and thumbs-up, i`ll be more than excited. i will support him. i happen to like his self-deprecating humor.
not only FB, but Google analytics had him as president, too!
Roxas has proven himself to be TOO overrated. He was hired by Erap and Gloria he had Master degree from Wharton. He was a merely ASSISTANT VP when he worked in New York which is far from STELLAR. He has worked in gov’t for 30 years and has really not shown any LEADERSHIP nor accomplished anything valuable to the people and the country…He lost already in 2010…what made him think he’ll win this time,,unless he manipulates hocus PCOS. It also not helping that he married Korina who has same personality as him and certified MATAPOBRE….parero sila ni AQUINO na LOSERS.
unsolicited advice for Duterte`s campaign Team:
DO NOT train your sights too much on Roxas, the cellar dweller. his myth claim (that Davao City is peaceful) is easily debunked by his own DILG`s certificate with his own signature certifying Davao City as highly urbanized and topping the criterion on good governance, peace and order, human rights, sound fiscal policy, etc.
add that to the video footage showing Roxas dressing down Mayor Romualdez for being a Romualdez, and the Palace resident being an Aquino ergo the former must not expect support from the Palace at the height of begging spree by Tacloban`s mayor in the aftermath of Yolanda…, these two issues alone should be enough to tank Roxas campaign in the cellar for good.
not even mlquezon3, PNoy`s self-styled Karl Rove can adequately put that into rest.
second, Duterte`s campaign team must be soft on its attack of Grace`s legitimacy and premise for running.
her supporters and that of Binay`s if asked to pick a second choice, alternative is almost always Duterte.
Roxas core supporters has no second choice. Only Roxas. talk about the yellow brigade.
^ Or the Yellow cult 😉
Wow, Ana. “Merely Assistant VP”? Allen & Company is a family Corporation controlled by father & son team Herbert and Herb Allen. It is considered “small” in the investment banking business because that’s how they want it to be – lean but mean. It’s a boutique type bank meaning it is more personal and decisions are faster because they don’t need a board meeting everytime a major decision is needed. In these companies, outsider-officers are rarely secure because of the personal, sometimes informal, nature of the organization but can be very fulfilling financially. It’s agents, er, senior bankers, I heard get 30% commission from M&A fees. Other companies give a less-generous pay of 8-12%. Some years ago it was buzz in Manhattan that Herbert Allen (Who bought Columbia Pictures in the 70s and sold it to Coca Cola so he could sit in Coke’s board) together with “The Sage” Warren Buffet kicked Coke’s CEO out of the company. Buffet’s company, Berkshire Hathaway was Coke’s biggest stockholder. Aside from M&As in the film industry, Allen & Co. also co-underwrote historic IPO of Google in 2004, and Facebook’s buyout of WhatsApp probably earning a whopping $1.2 from the latter.
I wouldn’t consider an AVP of such company as “Far from stellar”.
But then again, bankers are not what this country needs. We have experienced having successful bankers in Gloria’s team – Sec. Vince Perez, Sec. Joselito Camacho, Sec. Peter Favila, Gloria’s adviser Joey Salceda and of course, Sec. Mar Roxas. What these geniuses of High-Finance produced are scandalous, intricate, very technical schemes to rob the country blind. Remember the CODE-NGO Peace Bonds? (http://www.ellentordesillas.com/2011/10/09/oras-na-ng-bayaran-ng-p35-bilyun-na-peace-bonds/)
Puhunang-laway and they made P1.8B divided among the members of the finance-savvy mafia.
What this country needs is a technocrat who can recognize problems and formulate the best solutions quickly at the least amount of cost to the citizens.
Who among the candidates possesses that quality?
Wala.
Barely a month or less, many gave Duterte his obituary for Cursing the Pope of predominantly Catholic Nation…And now surveys after surveys, and in the FB and just every social medium, he is leading the Contest…
Well, Elections is still months away and anything and everything could change…party loyalists or cultists will live and die for their candidates…fence jumpers will change their side of the fence, whichever side is greener or which candidate can make the grass looks greener…
And poor Mar Roxas, even his undergraduate degree is now a suspect, when anyone most especially the Media entities can easily verify if it true or false, but most will just ride with the wind..That is what politics can do to a man..either destroy or make a man…by hook or by crook…
Tongue, AVP is next to Associate which is an entry level position. Annual salary is capped and most of the monies are from commissions. Some are hired straight out of college with position of Executive Director that’s why I said AVP is not stellar. There is no more Wall Street, most brokerages converted to BANK when Bears Stearns and Lehman collapsed to have access to Fed Reserve discount window. Bank is highly regulated unlike brokerage so walang kita. GUTOM ngayon ang mga Investment Banker…may alam ka bang nagawang mabuti ni Mar? Di ba wala?
Don’t waste time on no.4, VP Binay still a treat!
Ang survery ay walang saysay kasi ang mga tinatanong ay mga uto utong tao na sumama sa edsa pagpatalsik kay Marcos, o anak, o kamag anak ng mga uto uto na iyon. Ang magdesisyon ang PCOS machine. At kay roxas ang PCOS machine. Kagaya ng pagdami ng uto utong tao ay dumami rin ang survery firm.
Mayroon pa survery si Binay, si Roxas, si Poe, at si Duterte o sino pa. Ang mga manunulat naman kasi parang sabik sa balita ay sulat agad. Hindi angkop ang salitang journalist para sa isang tao kung hindi patas ang pag uulat o pagbabalita. Sa napakadami kong beses na pagbasa ng diaryo wala akong nabasa na ang isang journalist o manunulat sa diaryo ay nagsulat ng mga kabutihan ni Marcos, puro kasamaan lang ang nababasahan ko na sinusulat.
Duterte`s greatest advantage perhaps is his being a gifted communicator in sync with the writings on the walls. he is known to shun politically correct language if the message he wants to convey might be subjected to different interpretations.
he uses loaded hyperbolas to get the message across. and at the same breath, if situation so required, uses direct blunt language, never minding even if its threading on vulgar to avoid ambiguity.
other politicians, sub or even at par with him, find it difficult to duplicate his style because of his second edge: he`s got something proven and working.
davao city is perhaps the most difficult city to govern in the country. finding the correct balance between the excitement in rushing development; is tempered by as to avoid trampling the rights of the indigenous peoples, zoning authorities consider sensitivities of the other
religious groups.
all religious sects and groups are present in the city. all moro ethno-linguistic groups have a substantial presence living amongst the christians.
Davao city is the de facto center of commerce, trade, politics, and education in the whole of Mindanao.
combined with ports of General Santos and Panabo cities, 3 hour ride further south and 45 minutes north respectively, these bloc handles 54% of the country`s exports receipts.
the decades long, treasury draining civil strife in Cotabato and Maguindanao areas has turned Davao City over time into a natural, if not reluctantly, a refugee center.
all past personalities of the underground Left are known to reside in the city, albeit now dead. all past and present personalities of the Moro groups (warring with the government) have their own dwellings too.
in short, Davao City has been and is always a potential powder keg. if not for Duterte’s brand of leadership and his humor, the city have been long a foregone proverbial wilderness and no-mans land, if you will.
and thanks to him and the Dabawenyos whose threshold for religious tolerance and patience are known to be long, the city still is part of the Republic.
#14 Well said….Duterte is the man to beat and he should not give Roxas midea mileage who obviously riding Duterte’s popularity.
O.T. sino me sabi na hindi OK na president/may balat si Pnoy. sa time niya nagkaron ulit ng Miss Universe. congrats Miss Pia. ang ganda ng sagot mo sa question/answer portion.
#15
Tama ka Jojo last hour luck of his career muntik pang madisgrasiya.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Drd_yA_c1Tg
Is it true that the Supreme Court early on decided that Grace Poe have to provide the proof that she is a natural born pinoy? If true I find that decision very political decision because for me either way each side should provide the proof. Why decide without facts? A total dilemna in my view. In addition, when COMELEC decided she is not eligible to run for president is another blunder. I thought that when they decided against her on the ground that she is not a natural born pinoy and residency is questionable. How did they know she is not a natural born pinoy? COMELEC have no evidence that one of her parents is not Filipino. Obviously she grew-up here and been here all along except for a short break. I would have appreciated their decision if they opted instead to refer the matter to the courts. Its not for them to decide whether Grace is natural born or not, and then disqualify her to run for president. COMELEC, in my view, should have been non-partisan, show more independence in promoting fair judgement as an organization, and should have act within their bounds. They should have at least assisted in finding the truth before deciding simply because its in the interest of the general voting public. The Commissioners individual opinion should not count without facts.
alam ni Grace kung sino talaga ang ama niya. ayaw ni susan na mapahiya sa Lipunan. kaya todo tanggi si Susan Roces na magpa DNA siya kay BBM dahil sila mismo ang nagpakalat nang tungkol kay Mccoy/Rosemarie tsismis. kaya kahit sino na lang ang maituro na ka DNA. Kaya Grace bumalik ka na lang sa USA at samahan si PIA Miss Universe sa New York.
kaya si Grace ay naging pala hubog. laging umi-inom ng alak, para makalimot sa kanyang pag-ka-tao. na nasa tabi niya alang ang tunay na ama pero hindi niya masabi ang totoo, dahil ayaw ni Susan. at ayaw din ni Sheryll Cruz.
Susan Roces is the culprit…siya ang may alam ng lahat lahat…buhay pa ang nanay ni Grace na si Rosemarie…kaya kahit anong hanap ng DNA ay walang magmamatch kasi pilit nilang nililihis ang katotohanan….Si Grace ay #1 na sinungaling….alam naman niya kung sino ng mga magulang niya eh pinagloloko pa lahat ng mga tao…dapat totally disqualified kapag napatunayan na nanloko si Susan…
grace – disqualified
duterte – disqualified
binay – imprisoned
santiago – disqualified
mar roxas – nganga pa rin but will win only thru the help of HOCUS PICOS.
roy seneres is the only presidential candidate left with no disqualification case the stooges of ngoyngoy can file against and will win by landslide unless the magic of comolect mafia starts utilizing the magic of HOCUS PICOS.
MPRevera, Roxas will run unopposed but still will not win as nobody can stand him except Korina….this guy has no personality at all.
# 18
Comelec has no evidence that parents of Grace LLamanzares are not Filipino? Tumpak. But the Rules of Court state that he who alleges the affirmative must prove. It is not for the party denying to prove. One cannot prove a negative.
The supporters keep pointing to the 1961 UN Treaty that a foundling is presumed to be born in the State where it is found. But the Philippines is not a party to that Treaty.
Cambio na naman ang mga supporter, pointing to the Preamble in the 1935 Constitution (in effect when Grace was born), about the Philippines adopting the Principles of International Law. Where is that found? In the Preamble, which is not positive law (not a command, as in “no person shall be denied due process, etc.). Even if the Preamble can be considered as positive law, what is the complete text?
The prefatory (preface, paunang mukha) statement talks about war. So, the generally accepted principles of international law mentioned here, refer to principles on war i.e., the Geneva convention, etc. That conclusion is supported by jurisprudence we adopted from the Americans, which states:
Even if it be assumed that the 1961 UN Treaty binds the Philippines, by way of the Preamble in the 1935 Constitution, the Treaty only begins to bind nations once it takes effect. When does the 1961 Treaty take effect? By its own text, two years after five nations have signed. It took effect on December 13, 1975, two years after Australia signed on December 13, 1973. (UK, 1966, Sweden 1969, Norway 1971, Austria, 1972, finally, Australia).
Simple lang, like you said. Bite the bullet, and admit na siya ay kapatid ni Bongbong. Kaya lang, wala na ang link sa tuwid na daan, may link ka kay Apo Ferdie.
Who cares about the Tuwid na Daan, na hindi naman gumagalaw?
I am not only talking about traffic. May nasibak na bang corrupt RTC judge since that great show called the Corona Impeachment? May nakulong na bang mga tropang kabarilan?
Kumonti ba ang mga nagugutom? Kumonti ba ang nagsasapalaran sa ibang bansa, dahil walang trabaho sa sariling bayan?
Ditch the ABNoy (Always Bragging Noy). Baka pati si Marred Wharton Kid umangat ang survey ratings.
Grace Poe should act to protect her rights and ditch those who are giving her wrong advice. Its up to those who filled for her disqualification to prove! I won’t be surprised later on to hear that there are people around her circle that are working against her. Those who complicate things for her needs to be remove from her campaign. Knowing our pinoy style of politics, its not far fetch. There are many behind the scene who would not want her to win simply because she’s an outsider and her objective is not aligned with theirs. Erap presidency is one good example. For Grace to survive and win, she needs to take her campaign to the next level with clear position, show some balls and mobilise! A tall order but that what makes a leader in my view.
Kung nag vice president na lang siya kay Mar Roxas wala sanang problema sa pagtakbo niya sa halalan. Ambisyosa din kasi at napakiusapan ni chiz escudero at naniwala naman. Ilan ng pamagat ng pelikula ay nabanggit. Kahit konting pagtingin, Hindi pa tapos ang laban.
#26, arvin, akala ni Grace madadaan niya sa People’s power gaya ng ginawa ni Cory…di niya alam na nagising na ang mga tao sa panloloko ng mga Aquino at Oligarchs…sobra sa laka ng loob si Grace dahil sa sulsol ni Chiz na #1 sa survey for VP kahit wala namang may gustong bumoto kay Chiz…obviously manipulated ang survey….
#27 & #28 Tingin ko naman hindi kinagat ni Grace ang alok ng LP as VP ni Roxas kasi kiss of death yon at hihilahin siya pababa. Kung wala na tayong choice in the end but Roxas I better not to cast my vote.
Alam ni chiz na maraming kakaharapin na kaso si grace poe sa pagtakbo sa halalan. Pero ginusto pa rin niya na tumakbo pagka pangulo para siya ang maging vice president kasi kung vice president rin ang pagkandidato ni grace poe ay matalo siya. Alam ni grace poe ang sinasabi ng ilan na hilaw pa siya sa pagka pangulo pero nagpapilit siya sa sulsol ng mga ilan na tumakbo pagka pangulo. Gustuhin man ni grace poe na maging vice presidente ni Mar Roxas ay maraming magagalit sa kanya.