Will Erap carry the torch for UNA if Binay withdraws?

There are those who believe that if Vice President Jejomar Binay does not push through with his announced presidential bid in 2016, Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada will carry the opposition torch.

I seriously doubt it.

And it all boils down to money- at least P10 billion needed to finance a presidential campaign.

Although Binay is putting up a brave front, the freezing of his bank accounts as ordered by the Court of Appeals has the effect of paralyzing his campaign.

And that’s not the end of his political woes. Anytime in the coming days or weeks, the Supreme Court is expected to decide on the petition of the Office of the Ombudsman to lift the temporary restraining order on its suspension of Mayor Junjun Binay. If that is lifted and Junjun is out of City Hall, the Binays lose Makati, their cash cow.

Sure there’s still Senator Nancy Binay and Rep. Abigail Binay (2nd district) but their positions do not give them access to the enormous funds of Makati City.

In 2013, many were surprised when the popular vice mayor of Manila Isko Moreno abandoned his longtime political partner,then Manila mayor Alfredo Lim, and agreed to be the running mate of the former president for the leadership of the country’s premier city.

It was widely believed that there was an understanding between Estrada and Moreno that the former would only serve for one term and the former “That’s Entertainment” talent would finally have his turn as Manila mayor in 2016 with Estrada’s son with Laarni Enriquez, Jake Ejercito, as running mate.

Last March, when the Supreme Court dismissed he disqualification suit against him and affirmed that the pardon granted by then president Gloria Arroyo in 2007 restored his political rights including running for public office, he anounced that he was thinking of running for re-election in Manila and that Moreno would be running for senator.

He also said he has had enough of the presidency and would rather concentrate in reviving the glory Manila.

In the 2010 elections, when Estrada pulled a surprise by beating high-spender Manny Villar of the Nacitonalista Party to place second to now President Aquino, his campaign was ragtag compared to his well-oiled 2008 presidential campaign (which he won against Jose de Venecia Jr.)

It was rumored that Binay shouldered the bulk of the Estrada-Binay campaign because the then Makati mayor needed Estrada to introduce him to his masa following. It was an effective strategy.

In the UNA 2010 rallies that we attended, there was no grand preparation. Nor did it have big names in showbusiness to entice people to come to the rally. But people filled the town plazas “to see Erap.”
And when they came to see Erap, they got to know Binay.

Binay would not have gotten that kind of masa exposure if he went around on his own at that time.
Even if, as some people say, Binay has already stashed billions of pesos, would he spend that for something he is not sure of winning? He is facing and will still be a subject of, several plunder and graft suits. His wife, Elenita Binay, is also facing graft cases before the Sandiganbayan. It’s due for decision also soon.

They will need all the resources for a very uncertain future.

Why is Estrada now floating the idea that he may make another presidential run?

It’s just a float.

Who knows, it could be used as a leverage to help his son, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, who is in detention now for plunder.

A father would do anything for his son.