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Poe overtakes Binay in Magdalo survey of Lingayen-Lucena corridor

Published by Ellen on June 2, 2015

Sen. Grace Poe and Vice President Jejomar Binay
Sen. Grace Poe and Vice President Jejomar Binay
The latest survey conducted by the Magdalo Group among voters in vote-rich Lingayen-Lucena corridor has Sen. Grace Poe leading the 2016 presidential race.

Conducted two weeks ago (May 18 to 20) among 3,000 respondents, the Magdalo survey, just like what they did in their national survey last April,had two scenarios.

Scenario One had 10 candidates while Scenario Two had five candidates.

In both scenarios,Poe leads the contest.

In Scenario One, 30 per cent of the respondents said they want her to be the next president.

This is the first survey that puts Poe in the lead. This is not suprising as her ratings had been consistently increasing while the numbers of Vice President Jejomar Binay has been going down since the investigation of the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee on the overpricing of the Makati City Hall Building 2 and other anomalous projects involving him.

Still, Binay placed second with 25.7 percent followed by Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada with 11.5 per cent. Sen. Miriam Santiago was fourth with 8.8 per cent.

Interior Secretary Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party and independent Sen. Chiz Escudero had the same score: five percent.

Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte got 4.4 per cent of the respondents’ nod; Sen. Alan Cayetano 4.9; Sen. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr, 2,8; and former Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, 2.5.

In Scenario Two, the names given to the respondents were Poe, Binay, Roxas, Cayetano, and Duterte.
Poe led with 43.5 percent while Binay got 31.2 per cent.

Roxas moved to third place but with less than ten (9.8) per cent followed by Cayetano with 7.9 per cent and Duterte, 6.6 per cent.

Historically the Lingayen-Lucena corridor is the most vote-rich area in the country. It covers the provinces of Aurora, Bataan, Batangas, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Metro Manila, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Quezon, Rizal, Tarlac and Zambales.

Comprising 40 per cent of the total number of voters in the country, the corridor usually determines the winners in the election.

Ironically, Poe’s father, movie actor Fernando Poe Jr, was the only post-1986 People Power election winner in the Lingayen-Lucena corridor who was not proclaimed president.

That was in the 2004 elections which was marred by the “Hello Garci” controversy, a taped conversation between Gloria Arroyo and Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano on how to manipulate the canvassing of the votes to make her win by at least one million votes over FPJ.

It was said that the “Hello Garci” cheating in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao was triggered by the massive lead by FPJ over Arroyo in the Lingayen-Lucena corridor. The Arroyo camp panicked when the votes from that area came in she had to call Garcillano and order him to give her enough votes from ARMM to offset FPJ’s lead. That resulted in the tampering of certificates of canvass. There were several cases of the number of votes in the COCs exceeding the number of registered voters in the area.

Households covered by the Lingayen-Lucena corridor are the most urbanized in the country. It has the highest concentration of television, radio and internet connections, which are the main sources of information of voters.

The Magdalo group has been conducting surveys since the first senatorial run of its leader, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, in 2007. The survey is designed and supervised by Trillanes’ chief-of-staff , Rolando “Oyie” Averilla.

Published in2016 electionsMalaya

35 Comments

  1. TonGuE-tWisTeD TonGuE-tWisTeD

    Aww, shit! my blood pressure just shot up when I read that part about Garci.

    Remember this?

    Gloria: So, will I still lead by more than 1M?
    Garci: Pipilitin ma’am natin yan.

    June 2, 2015
  2. TonGuE-tWisTeD TonGuE-tWisTeD

    BTW, nagpakawala na ng “bomba” ang UNA laban kay Grace Poe. Kesyo hindi raw pabor si Binay na sa kanila manggaling but nevertheless, isinawalat din ni Toby Tiangco sa media.

    Hindi daw “honest” si Grace Poe dahil hindi niya sinasabi na hindi siya kwalipikadong tumakbo bilang pangulo dahil sa ten year residence requirement ng Constitution.

    Tiradang adik talaga tong si Toby. Ipinakita pa niya yung certificate of candidacy ni Poe kung saan nilagay ni Poe six years and six months sa kanyang filing sa Comelec nung tumakbo siyang senador nung 2010 sa tanong na “RESIDENCE IN THE CONSTITUENCY WHERE I SEEK TO BE ELECTED IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE ELECTION: __________ Years and _______ Months.

    Alam ng mga abugado ni Binay na hindi na lulusot yung argumentong lack of residence ni Poe dahil sa dami ng desisyon ng Supreme Court na ang “residence” ay “domicile” at hindi “physical presence”. Residence is a matter of intention, ika nga ng Supreme Court sa kaso ni Imelda Marcos na ayaw i-proclaim ng COMELEC bilang Representative ng 1st District ng Leyte. Gustong palitan ni Imelda yung sagot niya sa Certificate of Candidacy niya sa tanong ng residence from “seven months” to “since birth” kasi nga 1 year ang requirement. And tunay na misyon ni Toby Tsongki, este, Tiangco ay paninira lamang kasi nga hindi siya kuno abugado at iyon ang kanyang sariling interpretasyon. Ipapakalat lang nila sa media at presto may mga aatras na ng suporta kay Poe.

    Sabi pa ng Supreme Court:

    In Nuval vs. Guray, the Court held that “the term residence. . . is synonymous with domicile which imports not only intention to reside in a fixed place, but also personal presence in that place, coupled with conduct indicative of such intention.” Larena vs. Teves reiterated the same doctrine in a case involving the qualifications of the respondent therein to the post of Municipal President of Dumaguete, Negros Oriental. Faypon vs. Quirino, held that the absence from residence to pursue studies or practice a profession or registration as a voter other than in the place where one is elected does not constitute loss of residence. So settled is the concept (of domicile) in our election law that in these and other election law cases, this Court has stated that the mere absence of an individual from his permanent residence without the intention to abandon it does not result in a loss or change of domicile.

    So ayan, kung makikipag-debate kayo alam niya na isasagot. Hehehe.

    Yung “bomba” ni Tiangco ay isang supot na watusi na naman. Pero di pa diyan natatapos ang paninira kay Poe lalo’t inaasahang lalampasan na niya si Nognog sa susunod na surveys.

    June 3, 2015
  3. chi chi

    Omg, hindi tatakbuhan ng tao ang watusi ni Tiangco…laban ako o!
    Lalo lamang nilang pinagmumukhang aping-aping foundling si Grace.

    Mas kakagatin ng masa ang sabi ni Grace, “Mas mabuti nang magka-citizen issue kaysa plunder”.

    Sapul na sapol, hahahaha!

    June 3, 2015
  4. baycas2 baycas2

    The Philippine Constitution requires the president of the Philippines to be “a natural-born citizen of the Philippines, a registered voter, able to read and write, at least forty years of age on the day of the election and a resident of the Philippines for at least ten years immediately preceding such election.”

    Since Grace Poe’s biological parents are unknown, her non-supporters are asking: “How sure is she that she is a natural-born citizen of the Philippines?

    A source close to Poe’s camp said they are aware of that issue to be raised against her if and when she decides to run for the presidency. They are ready to answer that.

    One of the legal instruments that they are citing is the U.N. Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness that states, “A foundling found in the territory of a Contracting State shall, in the absence of proof to the contrary, be considered to have been born within that territory of parents possessing the nationality of that State.”

    Expect this issue to reach the Supreme Court.

    verafilesdotorg/citizenship-issue-to-be-raised-vs-grace-poe-if-she-runs-for-president/

    What if the Philippines is not signatory to the 1961 U.N. Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness? http://www.unhcr.org/pages/4a2535c3d.html

    Was she able to acquire her citizenship through legal adoption only?

    Art. 39. Effects of Adoption. – The adoption shall:

    (1) Give to the adopted person the same rights and duties as if he were a legitimate child of the adopter: Provided, That an adopted child cannot acquire Philippine citizenship by virtue of such adoption;

    PRESIDENTIAL DECREE NO. 603, December 10, 1974, THE CHILD AND YOUTH WELFARE CODE

    June 3, 2015
  5. baycas2 baycas2

    The Philippine Constitution requires the president of the Philippines to be “a natural-born citizen of the Philippines, a registered voter, able to read and write, at least forty years of age on the day of the election and a resident of the Philippines for at least ten years immediately preceding such election.”

    Since Grace Poe’s biological parents are unknown, her non-supporters are asking: “How sure is she that she is a natural-born citizen of the Philippines?

    A source close to Poe’s camp said they are aware of that issue to be raised against her if and when she decides to run for the presidency. They are ready to answer that.

    One of the legal instruments that they are citing is the U.N. Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness that states, “A foundling found in the territory of a Contracting State shall, in the absence of proof to the contrary, be considered to have been born within that territory of parents possessing the nationality of that State.”

    Expect this issue to reach the Supreme Court.

    verafilesdotorg/citizenship-issue-to-be-raised-vs-grace-poe-if-she-runs-for-president/

    What if the Philippines is not signatory to the 1961 U.N. Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness? http://www.unhcr.org/pages/4a2535c3d.html

    Was she able to acquire her citizenship through legal adoption only?

    Art. 39. Effects of Adoption. – The adoption shall:

    (1) Give to the adopted person the same rights and duties as if he were a legitimate child of the adopter: Provided, That an adopted child cannot acquire Philippine citizenship by virtue of such adoption;

    PRESIDENTIAL DECREE NO. 603, December 10, 1974, THE CHILD AND YOUTH WELFARE CODE

    June 3, 2015
  7. Golberg Golberg

    Tongue,Chi sabi nga ni Miriam “Stupid is forever.”
    May kulang pa nga diyan eh “They are everywhere.”

    June 3, 2015
  8. Golberg Golberg

    Isa pa, kamakailang lang nais ni Nognog na makatambal itong si Grace sa halalan sa 2016.
    Tumanggi si Grace. At ngayon ang issue nila ay residency.
    Tukmol ng gunggong itong kampo ni Binay.

    June 3, 2015
  9. MPRivera MPRivera

    kung ano anong mga isyu ‘yang hinahalukay laban sa taong hindi mahila para maging kakampi. mula sa tatay na sinasabing hindi pilipin sitiseng samantalang sa pilipins ipinanganak at ngayon naman ay sa inampong naging anak at ipinagpipilitang hindi daw natyural born sitiseng of di pilipins – para lamang madiskaril ang hindi pa ipinapahayag na kandidatura sa mas mataas na posisyon sa gobyerno.

    i’d rather support an alien who would stand for and by the people’s side than choose a natural born who thinks only of what shall benefit his interests.

    they do not want anyone who lacks residency next to not an natural born run the country BUT who do these chameleons favor own properties in the country? aren’t they lure foreigners in the guise of putting up capital to pump up kuno the economy?

    pisting wakanga!

    June 3, 2015
  10. MPRivera MPRivera

    “….not a natural born…..”

    i pardon you dahil nawala na nga si webster sa tabi ko, sobrang bilis na 60 seconds per minute pa patatayp ng walot’ kalahating putol na daliri ko!

    June 3, 2015
  11. MPRivera MPRivera

    habang ipinapahayag ni tobi ang disqualification ni grace sa pagtakbo bilang presidente ay mukhang nakasinghot ‘ata ng pandikit dahil sa pamumungay ng mata. parang nagtatalsikan pa nga ‘yung laway habang, eh.

    speaking on his own daw?

    mr. vice president jojo, payag ka bang pinangungunahan ng iyong ispoksman?

    June 3, 2015
  12. MPRivera MPRivera

    “…….nagtatalsikan pa nga ‘yung laway habang NAGSASALITA, eh.”

    eksit muna ako! minumulto!

    June 3, 2015
  13. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    Whoever cited the 1961 Convention should have done further research.

    The Philippines is not a signatory to the 1961 Convention cited above.

    The Philippines is only a signatory to the precursor 1954 Convention. See the link below.

    unhcr.org/pages/4a2535c3d.html

    Lagyan ng tatlong w.

    Let me quote the pertinent paragraph of that page.

    The conventions attracted relatively few ratifications or accessions for decades. So, in 2011, to mark the 50th anniversary of the 1961 Convention, UNHCR launched a major campaign to promote accession to the two statelessness treaties. The campaign quickly produced results. There have been 33 accessions since the campaign was launched. In order of accession: Panama (1954 and 1961 Conventions); Nigeria (1954 and 1961); Philippines (1954); Croatia (1961); Serbia (1961); Turkmenistan (1954); Benin (1954 and 1961); Georgia (1954); Bulgaria (1954 and 1961); Moldova (1954 and 1961); Burkina Faso (1954); Paraguay (1961); Turkmenistan (1961); Ecuador (1961); Honduras (1954); Portugal (1954 and 1961); Honduras (1961); Jamaica (1961); Ukraine (1954 and 1961); Nicaragua (1954); Lithuania (1961); Nicaragua (1961); Cote d’Ivoire (1954 and 1961); Montenegro (1961) and Peru (1954).

    The 1954 Convention does not have the provision on “foundlings”. It is in pdf format, and you can search for the word “foundling.” Wala.

    Article 12 (1) of the 1954 Convention states:

    1. The personal status of a stateless person shall be governed by the law of the country of his domicile or, if he has no domicile, by the law of the country
    of his residence.

    So the PD applies, not the convention on “foundlings”.

    Get copies of the Conventions at the page referred to above.

    June 3, 2015
  14. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    Yun din pala ang nakasaad sa linked page ni baycas. 1954 lang.

    June 3, 2015
  15. TonGuE-tWisTeD TonGuE-tWisTeD

    Latest survey results: Binay leads Poe by a mere 4 percent – Laylo Research.

    Sino naman itong Laylo Research? Aba e ito pala si Pedro “Junie” Laylo, Jr. na dating staff ni Putot. Sila ni Mike Defensor ang fabricators ng survey results na ang misyon ay natimbog sa Hello Garci scandal. Sa survey noong 2004, na-predict kuno ng Lakas/Kampon/Kampi na lalamang si Putot ng one million votes kay FPJ.

    Actually, ang na-predict nila ay kung ilang boto ang dapat idagdag kay putot at ibawas kay FPJ maraming kaso sa Mindanao kung saan mas maraming bumoto kesa sa rehistrado.

    Kaya naman pala malambot si Binay kay Putot, no? Ipa-hospital arrest na lang daw. Baka si Binay pa ang magpardon kay Gloria.

    Nag-join together na ang dark forces – yung isa maitim ang balat, yung isa maitim ang gilagid. Pareho pa silang maitim ang budhi.

    June 4, 2015
  16. Golberg Golberg

    Mayroon pa akong isang “meme” ni Floyd Mayweather na nabasa.

    Ganito ang nakasaad, “Hoy Binay, alam kong pareho tayong maitim at duwag. Pero P_____ina ka, yung pera ko galing sa mga laban ko. Yung pera mo galing sa kaban ng bayan.”

    Pati si aling Dionesia may say diyan, “Sand of a beach.”

    June 4, 2015
  18. Ellen Ellen

    http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/06/03/15/poe-im-honest-and-qualified

    Grace Poe said she has in fact been in the Philippines since 2005, or for more than 10 years now.

    Poe said she answered 6 years and 6 months in the residency question when she filed her candidacy for senator in October 2012 because it was in April 2006 when their US house was sold.

    “Ako ay tapat, lampas pa po sa requirement ako nandito sa Pilipinas,” she said.

    June 4, 2015
  19. arvin arvin

    Kapag nag deklara ng tatakbo si Duterte lahat sila mauungusan sa survey. Nanguna lang si Poe sa senatorial sa nakaraang halalan dahil kay FPJ, pero lumipas na ang panahon. Limot na ang ganun. Katulad ng kay Pnoynoy nanalo siya dahil kay Cory pero kung tatakbo pa siya kahit senador mahihirapan na siyang manalo. Siguro 50 percent ng Mindanao kay Duterte tapos ang natitirang 50 percent paghahati hatian ni binay, poe, roxas at iba pang tatakbo. Mas mabuti nga kung tatakbo si Poe sa halalan para sure win na si Duterte. Ganundin sa Visayas ay si Duterte ang malakas na kandidato. Lalong lalo na sa Luzon.

    June 4, 2015
  20. arvin arvin

    Nang mangyari ang bagyong yolanda ilang araw lang pumunta agad si Duterte sa tacloban. Marami ng kalamidad ang dumating, giyera kaya ang tao namulat na ang isipan na ang pinuno dapat hindi dinadaan sa pagka guwapo, sikat o ano pa. Dapat may puso sa kapwa at hangad ang kabutihan. Si Duterte lang ang may ganun na pag uugali.

    June 4, 2015
  21. arvin arvin

    Maraming kandidato pagka Presidente mas pabor kay Duterte dahil may mga solid vote para sa kanya. Patakbuhin pa si Erap para lalong pabor kay Duterte.

    June 4, 2015
  23. baycas2 baycas2

    SnV,

    Can you please comment on this?

    —–
    [Federal Register Volume 77, Number 145 (Friday, July 27, 2012)]

    DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
    Internal Revenue Service

    Quarterly Publication of Individuals, Who Have Chosen To Expatriate, as Required by Section 6039G

    AGENCY: Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Treasury.
    ACTION: Notice.

    —–

    SUMMARY: This notice is provided in accordance with IRC section 6039G of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPPA) of 1996, as amended. This listing contains the name of each individual losing United States citizenship (within the meaning of section 877(a) or 877A) with respect to whom the Secretary received information during the quarter ending June 30, 2012. For purposes of this listing, long-term residents, as defined in section 877(e)(2), are treated as if they were citizens of the United States who lost citizenship.

    —–

    Last Name First Name Middle Name
    LLAMANZARES MARY GRACE POE

    June 4, 2015
  24. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    Tila napupusuan na ng Penoy ang senadora, para tumakbong pangulo, kaysa kay Mar Roxas. That is bad news for the tricycle driver, kargador ng sako, at iba pa.

    So Ms. Poe should expect friendly fire to be more vicious than enemy fire.

    # 23

    Finalizing the research. Hindi ako nakakalimot.

    And who fed you the intel?

    June 4, 2015
  25. baycas2 baycas2

    “Kuwentong barbero” ko sa raissaroblesdotcom.

    Salamat in advance…

    June 4, 2015
  26. Ellen Ellen

    SnV #24

    You are right,SnV. I think the attacks on Grace do not come only from the direction of the Binay camp.Medyo hindi swabe yung UNA.

    Mas pailalim yung sa kabilang direksyun.

    June 5, 2015
  27. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    # 24

    Section 877A contains the definition of the term “expatriate”

    law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/877A (tatlong w sa harap).

    As your homie at the raissa blog has enumerated, 877 provides as follows:

    (2) Expatriate
    The term “expatriate” means—
    (A)any United States citizen who relinquishes his citizenship,

    (3) Expatriation date
    The term “expatriation date” means—
    (A)the date an individual relinquishes United States citizenship, or

    (4) Relinquishment of citizenship
    A citizen shall be treated as relinquishing his United States citizenship on the earliest of—
    (A) the date the individual renounces his United States nationality before a diplomatic or consular officer of the United States pursuant to paragraph (5) of section 349(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1481(a)(5)),

    (B) the date the individual furnishes to the United States Department of State a signed statement of voluntary relinquishment of United States nationality confirming the performance of an act of expatriation specified in paragraph (1), (2), (3), or (4) of section 349(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1481(a)(1)–(4)),

    (C) the date the United States Department of State issues to the individual a certificate of loss of nationality, or

    (D) the date a court of the United States cancels a naturalized citizen’s certificate of naturalization.

    Subparagraph (A) or (B) shall not apply to any individual unless the renunciation or voluntary relinquishment is subsequently approved by the issuance to the individual of a certificate of loss of nationality by the United States Department of State.

    June 5, 2015
  28. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    The cited IRC section 6039G refers to the duty of the Secretary of State, or the Immigration head (USCIS) to provide the Secretary (of the Treasury, I presume, under whom the IRS is) with information on people who have lost or relinquished their US citizenship.

    (d) Information to be provided to Secretary
    Notwithstanding any other provision of law—
    (1) any Federal agency or court which collects (or is required to collect) the statement under subsection (a) shall provide to the Secretary—
    (A) a copy of any such statement, and
    (B) the name (and any other identifying information) of any individual refusing to comply with the provisions of subsection (a),
    (2) the Secretary of State shall provide to the Secretary a copy of each certificate as to the loss of American nationality under section 358 of the Immigration and Nationality Act which is approved by the Secretary of State

    law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/6039G (tatlong w ulit)

    June 5, 2015
  29. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    The provision further provides that:

    Notwithstanding any other provision of law, not later than 30 days after the close of each calendar quarter, the Secretary shall publish in the Federal Register the name of each individual losing United States citizenship (within the meaning of section 877 (a) or 877A) with respect to whom the Secretary receives information under the preceding sentence during such quarter.

    The Federal register is the US equivalent of our Official Gazette.

    That is why, the IRS published what your intel dug up. So that means, the loss of US citizenship occurred at the end of June 2012 (calendar quarter), and it was published in July 2012.

    That might have been in preparation for the Senate candidacy, for which Ms. Poe filed her COC in October 2012.

    June 5, 2015
  30. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    Since US citizenship was kept until June 2012, it would appear that there was the animus revertendi to go back to the US until June 2012.

    The decision to finally give up the animus revertendi seems to have been crystallized only after the decision to run.

    I doubt that the management of the copyright to FPJ’s movies can provide the evidence to prove the animus to stay in the Philippines, because you can manage the copyright from the US.

    June 5, 2015
  31. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    The above is only from reading the law. There may be evidence that US citizenship was relinquished earlier.

    June 5, 2015
  32. snooper snooper

    I like Grace a lot but is she really ready for the very difficult task of being a president? Popularity is good but actual hands on experience in a very diverse society like ours is a MUST. I do not know her governance acumen. I know she is honest and all but look at Pinoy, honest and all but surrounded by vultures!

    June 7, 2015
  33. MPRivera MPRivera

    !snooper, naniniwala akong honest si penoy – sa SALITA la’ang patungkol sa kanyang sarili pero BULAG siya sa mga ginagawa ng kanyang mga kaibigan sa lantarang PAGWAWALANGHIYA sa taong bayan!

    June 7, 2015

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