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Binay 2016 scenario: The worst is yet to come

Binay distributes health cards in Cagayan de Oro.
Binay distributes health cards in Cagayan de Oro.
After Vice President Jejomar Binay backed out of the scheduled debate, which he himself suggested, with Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, many asked if he is also reconsidering his announced presidential bid in 2016.

Binay immediately shut down the idea re-assuring his allies that there is no backing out of his ambition to be the next president of the Philippines, something that shudders many who imagine the level of corruption would it be under his presidency.

Binay gave the reason why he is pursuing his presidential plans despite the perception that he is severely damaged: “Napakalaki ng lamang ko. Never in the history na may ganun, hindi naman ganun kaagad ang lamang” (I keep a wide lead in surveys. Never in history that someone is leading the race by a wide margin).”

Which is true.

Despite the huge drop in voters’ preference for the 2016 elections for him – from 41 percent in the May 2014 survey to 31 percent in last September’s poll, he is still the frontrunner. Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, the Liberal Party’s expected bet, trails way behind at 13 percent despite scoring an almost double increase.

Binay’s confidence got further boost by the results of the survey conducted at the height of the Senate hearing on his controversial sprawling hacienda in Batangas by Novo Trends PH, a new research agency led by political analyst Ramon Casiple, which showed that most of Metro Manilas would vote for him for president if elections were held today.

Some political analysts say that the hearings of the Blue Ribbon subcommittee which had uncovered Binay’s alleged awesome wealth came too early. They say that by next year, the voters would have forgotten about the controversies.

They say Binay is just riding out the controversies which he expects his detractors would not be able to sustain much longer.

Analysts take a cynical view about the effect on the voters of the controversy saying that with enormous war chest, Binay would be able to buy his way out of the scandal and to the presidency.

Such political strategy banks on the ignorance and apathy of the voters and takes for granted the determination of the three senators – Antonio Trillanes IV, Alan Peter Cayetano, and Aquilino Pimentel III – to pursue the investigation to its fullest.

It also underestimates the contempt of the public for corrupt officials and what a no-nonsense Ombudsman can do.

Mrs. Binay tours friends in Hacienda in 2010 Facebook post.
Mrs. Binay tours friends in Batangas Hacienda in 2010 Facebook post.
Next year, when Binay would be consolidating his nationwide network and intensifying his fundraising campaign, he, members of his family and associates would find themselves embroiled in graft and plunder cases.

His wife, Dr. Elenita Binay, who was Makati mayor for the period 1998 through 2001, in fact, is already in deep legal hole. She is facing seven legal cases in the anti-graft court Sandiganbayan.

Last week, the Sandiganbayan denied Mrs. Binay’s motion to suspend the proceedings on the charges of malversation and graft charges against her in connection with the alleged anomalous purchase of hospital beds worth P36 million in 2001. (The supplier for those hospitals beds was businessman Antonio Tiu, who is now being accused as Binay’s dummy in his 350-hectare Batangas hacienda.)

Binay himself has been charged with P1.5 billion plunder in connection with the alleged overpriced Makati parking building. Others named in the plunder case are his son, Junjun, the current Makati mayor and councilors.

Trillanes expects more plunder and other charges to be filed against Binay next year from evidence gathered by the Senate Blue Ribbon committee.

Impeachment has been ruled out due to apparent lack of numbers. House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte, a known supporter of Binay in the 2010 elections, has said that the vice president cannot be impeached for his acts as mayor.

It is expected that Binay would invoke immunity from suits. It is expected also that this question will reach the Supreme Court.

These issues will seriously hound Binay’s campaign and cause his prospective contributors to hold off the funds needed to oil his campaign machinery.

When Binay said last week that the “worst is over,” he knows that it is just beginning. The worst is yet to come.

Published inElections 2016Graft and corruption

23 Comments

  1. Joe America Joe America

    When people receiving gifts such as those in the lead photograph recognize they are getting “slimed” they may continue to receive them . . . because they need the help . . . but they will do so humiliated that they are being so outrageously used. And they will vow to vote for anybody but the guy rubbing their pride in the red Philippine mud.

  2. MontyWest MontyWest

    Trillanes mentioned a house in Beverly Hills, California. Ms. Tordesillas, can you expose the details about this property similar to what you did with Mikey Arroyo?

  3. manuelbuencamino manuelbuencamino

    There could be something to Belmonte’s argument that Binay cannot be impeached for things he did before he became vice – president. But there is nothing to Binay’s argument that a vice-president enjoys immunity from suit. The basis for the grant of immunity to the president is because without immunity he could be subject to harassment suits that will interfere with his executive functions (because he will have to attend to his defense).

    Now, what executive functions does a vice-president have? The Constitution says nothing about the powers and duties of a vice-president other than to wait for the president to vacate his position. So, immunity from suit for the vice-president? Bwahaha.

    Media will play a huge role in exposing Binay. I hope it doesn’t drop the ball.

  4. From Romy Cator:

    VP Binay has a good IQ in politics. He has probably developed that kind of political talent through the years
    as a lawyer also as Mayor and now as the second highest public official of the Philippines as VP.

    He also has developed that kind of strength needed to play around with his detractors. However. knowing that he
    can throw an elbow of power here and there, his weakness is also very glaring. His weakness was shown
    by his backing out of the debate which he himself started when he challenged Senator Trillanes to a
    debate. Backing out from a debate which VP Binay created is a sure sign og weakness and in Pilipino
    “Walang palabra de honor” or “Walang paninindigan”.

    And the reason VP Binay gave will only prove that it came from a well trained politician. That according to
    the VP apparently Senator Trillanes has been saying that VP Binay is a lawyer and he is a very good debater.
    Kaya ang sabi ni VP Binay ay ayaw na niyang makipagdebate kay Trillanes dahil ayaw naman daw niayng
    lumabas na mapangapi at mapagsamantala. He just don’t want to be oppressive and opportunistic.Who is
    playing politic now?

    But of course VP Binay is busy traveling to the provinces, delivering campaign speeches.Does the Comelec
    know about this? This is electioneering isn’t it>

  5. Lawyer Katrina Legarda’s comment in FB:

    Well the Constitution states that the VP can be removed from office in the same manner as the President. Hence, only by impeachment.

    So the plunder cases cannot or will not prosper while he is VP. Should he win (and the question really is who can beat him as other wannabes haven’t been to the places he has been to) those plunder cases will again not prosper…

    On the other hand, cases filed if any will be against present in power –

  6. chi chi

    Pero ang survey na winner pa rin si Binay ay nung hindi pa siya umaatras sa debate, let’s see what comes out of a survey after na mag-panic siya.

    Sabagay, kagagala at kaaakbay ni Binay sa mga ordinaryong noypi na tiyak buboto, plus philhealth distribution, singit sarili sa mga okasyon at b-days, etc baka tumaas pa kesa dati ang panalo niya. Omigawd!

  7. vic vic

    The Question whether Binay can be impeached or not for the impeachable offences committed while in position other than VP is not much of an issue, but whether he can be Sued or Charged for Crimes while in Office as VP? And since there is no precedent case, then it is Worth Trying and let the Wise men and women of the SC again Decide the issue to create the Precedent…and if Binay is not soo lucky then he can be found Guilty of Plunder…and instead of Malacanang, he can spend the rest of his life in St. Luke’s….

  8. vic vic

    @ # 1 joe, that picture could have been the end of any candidate..distributing health cards! but Phl politics love that kind of campaigning and the media would Not even raise an eyebrow about that very immoral act of electioneering…

  9. vonjovi2 vonjovi2

    Dito lang naman sa atin ang mga kapit tuko at mandurugas na politiko ang palaging nag papa photo op.

    Sa ibang bansa ay nag bibigay rin ng mga ganyan pero ang ginagawa ay pumupunta sa goverment agency at doon nila nakukuha ang mga free health or ano pa.

    Dito lang sa atin na kailangan mag pasikat ang mga politiko na kailangan pang mag pakagawa ng establado at para sa pakuha ng litrato na nag bibigay sila.

    Di naman sa pera nila galing iyun at galing sa taong malinis ang pag katao na nagbabayad ng buwis.

    Sino ang nag papahirap at nag papabagsak ng bansa natin kundi ang mga botante rin.

  10. snooper snooper

    Nasa tao na kung pananalunin pa nila si Binay sa 2016. Muntik na namang manalo si Erap in 2010 sa pagkapresidente so it is not remotely possible that this supposed “plunderer” will too. Type yata ng Pinoy yung mga nagnanakaw para may pera sila come election time. In countries like the US, Canada Australia and the like, a crooked politician when exposed, resigns. Dyan naman sa PInas, a crooked politician when exposed, gets a mileage to “improve” his votes. In other words, mad makapal ang mukha, max may chance na manalo sa elections. Hay naku!

  11. I have this nagging feeling that in the end, for lack of a winnable candidate that could protect the family interest, Binay will be PNoy’s candidate. I could imagine those avid PNoy fans pulling their hair in exasperation. And I would be monumentally amused when they start turning around saying BNay is not such a bad choice at all and be rallying in full force in his support.

  12. snooper snooper

    I agree Ricelander.. Because Binay is still Pnoy’s friend.

  13. Buti nai-save ninyo yung photos. Ginawa nang “private” nung FB account owner. Natunugan yata.

    Yung naka-brown na lalaki, si Roy Valarao ng Arcadia, CA. Isang Pinoy MMA fighter. Kaibigan yan ni Abby Binay. Yung katabi niya ay ang wifey niyang si Lisa.

  14. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    # 11

    If only to watch Allan Peter Cayetano do another somersault, I half-wish your prediction comes true. Wasn’t this the same Allan Peter Cayetano who was so rabid about the Abnoy issue? So now he is a rabid attack dog? Like you said, wait until the paymaster changes his mind and says, “Oops, kay Binay ang pamilya ko; in memory of his friendship with Inay.”

    Oral arguments were held on the EDCA yesterday. Walang interesado, and it was not written about. People are more interested in political voyeurism (wow magnanakaw; wow sinungaling, wow this and that) than matters that will affect generations.

    Investigation? Anong investigation, eh alam na nila ang sasabihin ni Mercado. They would not be listening to it for the first time at the Senate floor. Let them take their evidence to Aling Conching – the declarations of Mercado can be reduced to an affidavit and filed with the Ombudsman. But there would be no cameras when one files papers with Aling Conching. Papers are never telegenic.

    I wonder who will somersault first to become Binay’s running mate when the Penoy changes his mind. And in true politico fashion, Binay will “magnanimously” accept their support, just like the Penoy did with rabid Goyang freaks, Neptali Gonzales III, Evardone, et al.

    Like the X-man said (ex-senator, ex-VP, ex-President), weather-weather lang.

  15. Maiba ako, Ellen. Nakita ko yung Mayor ninyo nung Sunday sa burol ng pamangkin ko sa Vera Ville. Isang bulate na lang hindi pumipirma, mukhang zombie na. Akay-akay akay ng 2 bodyguard, biglang bagsak sa semento, di na nakakalakad di gaya ng dati nakabaston lang lumalakad mag-isa. Dapat na rin yang magretiro. Mala-Binay na rin nito sa tagal sa pwesto.

  16. #16. Yes, pamangkin ni Nene Aguilar sa father side yung pamangkin ko sa pinsan. Ang asawa ng pinsan ko at si Imelda Aguilar magkapatid. Akala mo miting-de-avance ng Las Pinas. Nandun sila Aguilar, Riguera, Casimiro, Bustamante(?), at Sen. Cynthia. Shock talaga ako nung makita ko lumagapak si Nene.

  17. snooper snooper

    Hayan na, binabaliktad na si Mercado ni Binay. At least si Mercado ay nagsasabing tumanggap siya ng mga suhol. Itong si Binay, panay ang tanggi. Sobra sobra na nga ang mga pagpapatunay na meron siyang mga ariarian, sige pa rin ang tanggi. Nakakagigil! Yung mga sumusuporta kay Binay na naglalaway ng malalaking kikitain kapag si Binay ang nakaupo ang naghahanap ng butas para makalusot si BInay sa mga paratang sa kanya.

  18. MPRivera MPRivera

    bakit sobrang lakas pa din ni binay sa latest surveys?

    thanks to the judgmental and accusatory attitude ng cayetano-trillanes tandem. they both are the prime factors kung bakit humahakot pa din ng simpatiya si binay mula sa mga botante.

    kunsabagay, hindi lahat ng resulta ng eleksiyon ay batay sa mga survey na ‘yan. meron ding kasamang daya sa bilangan gayundin ang lakas ng kinang ng salaping pinambibili ng boto mula sa mga TANGANG walang pakialam!

  19. snooper snooper

    Magno, nababayaran ang survey. Habang may pambayad si Binay sa survey, mataas pa rin ang ratings niya.

  20. Mike Mike

    #21
    @MPRivera

    If it were the likes of Sen. Poe who did the investigation. The survey results would probably be different. Cayatano and Trillanes has an angenda which is to run for higher office in 2016 at the expense of Binay. Very obvious especially to Binay”s supporters. I just hope that something big will happen between now and 2016 that will awaken the VP supporters and not vote for him. Binay is super corrupt and it will do the country good not to have him as president.

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