The rising tension at the Ayungin shoal, just 21 nautical miles from Mischief Reef where China has built fortifications, could be a test on the usefulness of the 1951 PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty
In its statement issued last Friday, the Department of Foreign Affairs said: “The BRP Sierra Madre, a commissioned Philippine Naval Vessel, was placed in Ayungin Shoal in 1999 to serve as a permanent Philippine installation in response to China’s illegal occupation of Mischief Reef in 1995. This was prior to the signing of the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in 2002. The Philippines reiterates that Ayungin Shoal is part of its continental shelf over which the Philippines has sovereign rights and jurisdiction.”
This is the first time that the Philippine government admitted that the 100 meter-long Sierra Madre, a World War II vintage LST that had served the United States as USS Harnett County during the Vietnam War and acquired by the Philippines in 1976, was deliberately grounded in Ayungin Shoal, 105.77 nautical miles from Palawan. Before, Philippine authorities played coy about the grounding of Sierra Madre in Ayungin shoal, which the Chinese call Ren’ai Reef.
Last year, at the Asean Regional Forum in Brunei, Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario disclosed that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told him “ the grounded ship has been there for so long.”
Del Rosario said he replied: “We don’t have money to move it.” He further said Wang offered to do it themselves.” To which he said he didn’t comment.
It is also significant that the DFA statement stressed that BRP Sierra Madre is a “commissioned Philippine Naval Vessel.” A country’s navy ship is considered part of its territory.
Under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, “ Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes. “
It also states that”… an armed attack on either of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the Parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.”
The United States has been vocal against what it considers China’s aggressive moves in South China Sea, which China claims to own almost wholly under its much disputed 9-dash line map. But it has stressed that it is neutral in the territorial disputes over the area also involving Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.
Justice Antonio T. Carpio, in a speech last year, said that “the U.S. has made it clear that the islands, reefs and rocks in the South China Sea are outside the scope of the Mutual Defense Treaty.”
She added:” Pending resolution of competing claims in the South China Sea, there should be no interference with the efforts of claimants to maintain the status quo.”
The latest confrontation in Ayungin shoal happened last week when Chinese Coast Guards blocked two civilian ships hired by the Philippine Navy to bring supplies to the eight members of the Philippine Marines stationed in BRP Sierra Madre. The past months, under an atmosphere of peaceful co-existence that Chinese and Philippine authorities informally agreed on, the Philippines uses civilian ships to bring supplies to Sierra Madre which the Chinese Coast Guard do not bother.
(Click here for New York Times multi-media feature on BRP Sierra Madre.)
China alleged that the two ships were not bringing just food supplies but also “concrete and rebar and other construction materials with a purpose of building facilities on the reef.”
The importance that China attaches to Ayungin shoal is noted by its recognition of Philippine presence in eight places in South China Sea (Lawak, Patag, Parola,Pag-asa,Kota, Panata,Rizal, Likas) but not in Ayungin Shoal.
He warned that “China watches closely and is highly vigilant on further possible provocations in the South China Sea by the Philippines and it must bear all the consequences arising therefrom.”
What if China decides to tow the BRP Sierra Madre?
Retired Commodore Rex Robles said that would be “an intrusion into Philippine territory.”
Retired diplomat Lauro Baja Jr said “that would be an act of war, worse than the water cannon incident.”
Using the MDT as cover, the Philippines is allowing the United States to build military facilities inside military camps for the latter to carry out its Pivot Asia security strategy. The agreement is expected to be signed next month during the Manila visit of President Obama.
If China tows BRP Sierra Madre out of Ayungin Shoal, will the United States help the Philippines under the MDT?
That’s a relevant issue that President Aquino should clarify with Obama.
“If China tows BRP Sierra Madre out of Ayungin Shoal, will the United States help the Philippines under the MDT?”
A big NO is my answer. The O will be just in Pinas for a show.
Kung nagkataon na si Erap pa ang Presidente ng Pinas, at hihilahin ng mga singkit ang BRP Sirra Madre ay tiyak na magkakasubukan. Kaya lang ang naka-upo ngayong ay Urong-na-Urong ang dalawang campana. We can never tell baka there are times na nagtatanong pa kay Kris how to make palusot.
Good question. I think not. Americans have little appetite for fighting other people’s wars these days.
#2 Please keep in mind that Erap is now Mayor of Manila where so many Chinese both local and from mainland live and do business. Needless to say, the Chinese community helped him last election. If he were the President, he would have used a different approach by appointing more competent diplomats to deal with it. Erap’s preference is to work out with China than the US. Remember he was among those who voted for the abolition of US bases. And the US doesn’t forget that. The US could have even supported Erap’s ouster in Edsa 2.
The Philippines has charged the eight coast guards for the death of one Taiwanese fishermen which Taiwan commended and appreciated. I believe there’s a political color in this gesture of pleasing Taiwan; that is, to convince Taiwan to join the Phil and other ASEAN members against China’s bullying. After all like the Phil, Taiwan is a military ally of the US.
if china attacks, the only question is whether the USA under obama will express concerns, deep concerns, or grave concerns re china’s actions.
DoD Official: Asia Pivot ‘Can’t Happen’ Due to Budget Pressures
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140304/DEFREG02/303040022/DoD-Official-Asia-Pivot-Can-t-Happen-Due-Budget-Pressures
online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303369904579423530847513384
obama increased spending on all other domestic and federal programs except for military, which he is gutting to pre-WW2 levels.
maybe there is some pinoy journalist out there who will ask obama about his credibility on the “pivot to asia”? one senior pentagon official just stated it’s not gonna happen! can somebody pls square the circle? how can it happen if his budget severely cuts funding on defense to fund obamacare and other domestic programs?
pinoy media should be dogged and insistent in getting a straight answer from obama about our fate and china. FOLLOW UP QUESTIONS if you have to!
#4, Mannie, you did not get the point what I am driving at. Osmena use the word ” AMPAW ” Why did I mention the sister Kris. It’s almost two years na lang ang kanyang termino, may nakulong na bang kurapt ?
Other than for its closest allies, the USA will not go for the “shooting” against any of the Super Powers unless its interest is directly in perils.. And the US knew who are its Closest Allies…those who in good and bad time will not kick them out unitarily. .
The US Energy Information Administration concluded in 2013 that the contested areas of the South China Sea are unlikely to have any significant oil and gas deposits. But the fact remains that even if any were discovered, these would prove too expensive to extract.
http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2014/03/18/forget-oil-gas-south-china-sea-just-got-more-complicated/
A portion of this was quoted in VERA Files story on Reed Bank:
“According to 2012 estimates of the United States Energy Information Administration, about one-fifth of the 12 billion barrels of oil and 160 TCF of gas in the western portion of the South China Sea are found in contested areas, particularly the Reed Bank.
“It warned, however, that “these additional resources are not considered commercial reserves at this time; extracting them may not be economically feasible.”
http://verafiles.org/chinese-firm-rejects-mvp-offer-for-share-in-ph-project-in-reed-bank/
‘langya, ‘yan na ba ang BRP Sierra Madre? ganyan na ba kapulubi ang AFP natin?
akala ko, kami la’ang noong kasagsagan ng gulo sa mindanao ang naaarmasan ng mga antigong baril na ginamit pa sa vietnam. eh, di ba’t BILYON na ang pinag-uusapang badyet para sa modernisasyon ng AFP?
wa hapeng?
dura la’ang ng mga intsik lalong warat na ‘yang barkong ‘yan, ‘yun pa kayang makabagong missiles ng PROC armed forces?
buti sana kung giyerang PSP la’ang dahil d’yan tsampiyon si noynoy.
hay, buhay. parang life. kapag nawala, patay!
@johnmarzan, you seem to think that President Obama can manage Americans into giving their support for a war with a fighting partner that has shown it is not really up to fighting, being too busy thieving to have a military budget of its own. This over-reliance on the good will of America to save Philippine bacon is not really cool. Obama is not a dictator and Americans are tired of fighting with uncommitted partners. In the US, Americans are the boss. Not Obama.
Aye aye, #15 Mr. Joe!
Protesta ako sa China
Di ako bibili ng HOPIA nila. 🙂
Ang mga Insect (chinese pala) ay kaya pala nangagalaiti sa maliit na Island ay di dahil sa natural gas or oil. Kundi sa “BRP Sierra Madre” dahil mahal ang kilo ng bakal ngayon at malaking kikitain nila sa bakal. Kaya nag mamadali ay dahil mababawasan ang timbang kung magiging kalawang lang.
Ito kasi mga chino, masyado aggresibo. Tuloy balik na ulit ang mga kano. Beijing should start talking with Manila, Im sure they dont like the kanos in the west phil seas. No us bases in exchange for recognition of 200 mile eez or will P. Princesa be the next olongapo?
unlike US presence in germany, japan WW2 (to keep the Axis of evil from becoming threats again) and kuwait (because of saddam hussein and kuwait invitation)–their presence in the philippines is based on conquer and colonial rule. notice though that even after they left the philippines after the cold war ended in 1991, the PHL govt still allowed them to come back to establish a presence in PHL after 9/11 2001.
@joeamerica if the USA is not prepared to honor the MDT with the philippines, is it ready to help japan fight a “short, sharp war” with china over a bunch of rocks at senkaku?
http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/of-course-the-pla-is-planning-for-a-short-sharp-war/
“You can’t say, ‘Don’t do something’ and then have no consequences for doing it.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-us-ponders-next-moves-on-crimea-experts-rethink-natos-defense-posture/2014/03/18/6cb89b60-aecd-11e3-9627-c65021d6d572_story.html
@joeamerica i agree with wretchard, every bad guy in the world knows obama is a screwup, and worse, delusional on foreign policy.
#18. hahaha, vonjovi!
I don’t see why this would pass as a test for the MDT. The US has not taken any position, for or against, any party in the disputed territories.
The only time Ayungin will become a test of the MDT is if and when the US declares that this or that island etc is part of Philippine territory.
First things first.
Manuel, read the article thoroughly. The title itself mentioned BRP Sierra Madre.
It’s the declaration by the DFA that “The BRP Sierra Madre, a commissioned Philippine Naval Vessel…” that brings in the MDT to the Ayungin shoal situation. That’s really the purpose of the Philippine government… and it’s not farfetched that the U.S. is into this.
@johnmarzan, It is my guess that the US would interpret the MDT as not requiring engagement with the Chinese over the rusty hulk placed on a rock in the sea by the Philippines to define a (contested) national border. The US would engage if Manila were attacked, or even Palawan. The Chinese are smart. They are patient. Little aggressive baby steps work, steps that don’t quite provoke physical response, but push out to acquire the resources they want.
US President Obama works in a democratic, increasingly partisan arena, and you reflect one of the more extremist partisan views. To that extent you represent a small part of the entire picture, which, if looked at objectively, would see both good and bad in the Obama international dealings. Most modern nations respect what the US has been doing to preserve world peace, greatly disliked GW Bush for his arrogant one-way or the highway approach, and appreciate the Obama diplomatic way which sees the US standing down as the policeman of the world. They don’t like NSA but can’t complain too much because their security agencies are doing similar things.
You, Israel, the legislative hawks, and any state under pressure, wish the US would continue to use its military to enforce world peace. The Philippines can also wage war, you know, if that is your choice. Military forces are small, but Chinese vessels are 800 miles from base and China can’t attack the mainlands without bringing the US into the picture.
The real problem, I think, is that it easy to demand that Americans put their lives on the line, but not so easy to ask Filipino friends and family to put their lives on the line.
“The real problem, I think, is that it easy to demand that Americans put their lives on the line, but not so easy to ask Filipino friends and family to put their lives on the line.” Joe America #27.
So true!
and the PHL almost did, but it was the USA who told PNOY not to engagte the chinese, basically telling us to accept the new China map.
http://www.ellentordesillas.com/2013/08/11/u-s-to-ph-stop-anti-china-rhetorics/
basically, it is the USA telling us not to defend our territory it’d make the USA (ie Obama) look bad. He already looks bad in with the Russia Ukraine thing, with his silly sactions against 7 russian individuals that has no effect on putin’s behavior.
truth is, obama should shut up about a “nuclear free” japan and let it go nuclear to deter china if it’s not serious about it’s so called “pivot to asia”. korea should also go nuclear. they cant be held hostage by north korea forever, especially with the USA drawing down it’s forces worldwide and gutting it’s military to pre-WW2 levels.
John, the US is not telling us “to accept the new China map” and “not to defend our territory.”
The US is telling us to be sensible in our actions. Is it sensible to send back our only ships to Scarborough shoal and leave unguarded the other parts of the country? What if what happened in Balintang Channel where members of Philippine Coast Guard shot Taiwanese fishermen, happened in Scarborough Shoal?
Look at how Vietnam handles China. They stand their ground in territorial disputes but they don’t quarrel. China and Vietnam leaders have a hotline where each one call in case something happens in disputed areas to avoid misunderstanding and unintended shooting.No grandstanding in media.
Would the US come to Phil’s rescue if the conflict escalates with China? Not sure. Between the Ukraine crisis and the South China Sea’s conflict, the US pays more attention to the former which for her is a more priority.
Assuming that it’s very expensive to extract the deposits in the areas, those tiny islands could be used as bases which China wants. It’s a strategic military location. Ships pass through it. Also, it’s a nation’s pride that after all these troubles of asserting the claim, China would not give up easily to boost her image and prestige.
Regarding hotline between two leaders, this is what Pnoy and the Chinese leader should consider. There are things that could be discussed in private that give positive results than public diplomacy.
The objective of the Chinese is to take Philippines in the future and why there are many natural resources that until now are untapped and they know we have the Benham Rise. After mischief reef came Scarborough then will follow Ayungin Shoal, Pag Asa Island then Palawan. They need not take Manila for it’s now owned by the Chinese with Chinatown and Binondo as their centers.
#12 Vic, If and when trouble erupts between Russia and Canada over the North Arctic claim in the future, what’s going to happen?
@johnmarzan, okie dokie, sounds like you have this US presidential thing well figured out. I am reminded of the critics of Mr. Aquino. “I don’t like the guy, so anything he does must be wrong, no matter what he does.” It also reminds me of the Chinese who follow a morality that says, well, everything I say or do is right, so whatever critics say or do is not only wrong, it is offensive. And thus we have the morality of self justification. Catch you later . . . I think I just found a new topic to write a blog about . . .
Here’s my take on Uncle Sam’s foreign policies when it comes to helping an ally. The US shall only help wholeheartedly if she greatly benefits from it. If the disadvantages outweigh the advantages on the part of the US, she would not help and at the most, she would only promise and announce this in media.
I wish no harm to our Filipino soldiers in particular and all Filipinos as a whole. However, this current South China Sea conflict shall test America’s sincerity and willingness to help her little brown brother. To prove this, a direct military conflict has become imperative.
At this point, Uncle Sam’s focus is on Ukraine where her stake is much bigger. The Philippines is of less priority and could be set aside in the meantime.
Mannie #37, as you say, there has to be a reason for the US to engage, and it cannot be a light one when lives of Americans are at stake. That’s why I say I don’t think the rusty boat outpost rises to that level of commitment, or sacrifice, or interest, and I suspect if you were an American defense official you would agree.
As for a priority of Ukraine over Philippines, the US has already said no US troops will engage there, and I think the US will see it first and foremost as a problem for NATO and the European Union. In that particular arena, Russian troops are already on land (as if China landed on Palawan). I think if China landed on Palawan you would also agree with US defense officials regarding action to be taken.
It’s the duty of governments to take care of their respective national interests. Anything that the U.S. government does is for their national interest. Which it should be.
That should also be what our own government should be doing.
@Ellen#39, yes indeed, on both points.
it’s more likely the other way around–chinese ships shooting at PHL ships. And we are being sensible. It’s our territory, why can’t we even send ships over scarborough without being harassed by Chinese patrol boats?
we cant even fish in those areas without being water cannoned in our own backyard!
re vietnam, i’m not familiar with their case. did china send troops over their territory too and vietnam handled it calmly, unlike japan and the philippines?
china turned huge parts of the south china sea into a no fly zone and unauthorized ships cannot enter in those areas, even in our backyard.
UKRAINE gave up it’s nukes in 1994 on clinton’s security assurances, which we know never came when putin invaded crimea.
the US pays attention to it now because it is what is on the news, just like the obsession of americans over the malaysian airlines. if in the future there is a shooting war between china and japan or china and the PHL over some rocks or shoal, it will also make front page news.
maybe sen osmena shouldnt have torpedoed the nomination of domingo lee as china ambassador, hmmm?
you know, the USA also advised south korea not to retaliate vs the north koreans when the nokors bombarded SK territory. South korea has every right to respond forcefully, or “punch back twice as hard” , but the obama was afraid it might get dragged in to the fight, when obama planned to gut the military to increase obamacare and domestic spending.
what if china and japan got into a war over some stupid rocks, will USA support japan, or will it also treat it like the philippines?
barry ruled out military conflict with russia–FINE, but why say it?
#38 The US has the habit and tendency to say one thing and do another thing. The US troops would not engage in Crimea or Ukraine, but Vice President Biden is going around the allies nearby to ask for support against Russia. Please take note that the US always wants to play the good guy. She would use other countries or pawns to create conflict or start a war; then the US would come in. This way, the US would not be blamed for starting a war. Of course this did not happen when Bush ordered attack on Iraq on mere suspicion of WMD which later proved to be untrue. But that was something so important to the US; that is, oil. Never mind international criticism as long as they got rid of Saddam. The same thing is currently happening in Venezuela where the US-CIA instigated students and activists protesting against the current government. When Chavez was alive, the US was unable to get rid of him because the guy always was one step ahead and that Venezuelans likes him for his nationalism. The US is hot on Venezuela again due to oil. What happened to Panama’s Gen. Noriega was even worse. Could you imagine he was kidnapped in his own country by the US Marines?
While it’s true that every nation would protect her own national interest, she should consider the interests of other nations too because this world survives due to interaction and overall benefits to all parties. Greed and selfishness have proven to be the cause of world conflicts for centuries. Add to this is using religion to conquer other nations. Based on the above premise that the US only protects her national interest, are we now saying that the US doesn’t want to directly confront China because of trades and her huge debts to China?
fine. then the USA shouldnt tell countries like japan not to go nuclear, since it is in their own interest to deter china.
… shouldnt tell South korea not to retaliate vs NK belligerence, since it is in south korea’s national interest to protect its’s people.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/11/23/us-korea-north-artillery-idUSTRE6AM0YS20101123
… shouldnt tell the philippines not to enforce it’s territorial borders since these PLA ships are stationed in our own backyard, and it’s in our own interest to protect our territory.
the truth is that barry just has no interest in foreign policy. every US ally and foe in asia thinks the USA under obama is feckless, and unreliable at best. the pivot to asia is nothing but hot air.
oh, we should just accomodate china’s claims to entire swaths of territory in east asia and south china sea? or that we should consider that we might put Obama in an awkward position if we assert our (japan, PHL) rights?
I’m more inclined to support your opinions, johnmarzan. But, do you still agree in the saying that “There are no permanent friends and enemies; only permanent interests” ?
#26
Ellen,
I am aware that the BRP Sierra Madre is a Philippine Navy ship. It is military. But it is parked in disputed territory. And so China can unpark the BRP Sierra Madre and claim the unparking was done in defense of its territory.
I think the MDT is for mutual defense, defense being when one of the signatories is attacked. MDT is not MOT (Mutual Offense Treaty).
For example:
If a Philippine navy ship were to enter, without consent, indisputabe Chinese waters and parks there even after China asks it to leave, then China will claim it has a right to blow up an uninvited ship parked in its territory. I doubt if the US will come to our aid under the MDT if that happens because we are clearly engaged in an offensive action.
Now what if our ship was in disputed territory and it is attacked, as our Coast Guard did with that Taiwanese fishing boat, is the US obligated to consider the attack on our ship as ”… an armed attack on either of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the Parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.” ?
Hard to tell, right? China will say we are trespassers, we will say we are not because we own the area to begin with. So what part of the above-quoted MDT provision can we invoke? Was parking our ship on the shoal a clearly defensive action, one that any objective observer will recognize or can our ship on that shoal also be seen as aggression on our part as seen from Chinese eyes? Who will judge who’s right and who’s wrong? Who will can order us or China to refrain from any action until the territorial dispute is resolved? And so pending final resolution of ownership, I don’t see how we can invoke the MDT if China decides to unpark our ship unless the US has said unequivocally they agree that the shoal is ours, that it forms part of our territory, and thus our ship has every right to be there and any country that attacks that ship will have to deal with our MDT.
At the end of the day, it’s the one that is more superior militarily prevails. MDT is old and might have become obsolete given the changes today. No use blaming the politicians who voted against the US bases in the early 90s. In fairness to those politicians, they might have the interest of the nation in their hearts and nationalism got the better hand. They could have succumbed to the growing call for the abolition by the leftists that became strong after Cory took over the presidency. Politicians usually are on the side of what the current situation demands. That was then. Today is different. We badly need Uncle Sam’s help. Whether she would come to her brown brother’s rescue is another thing.
Given the close relationship between China and the Philippines with millions of Chinese living permanently in the country plus the fact that many of the Filipinos have Chinese blood in them, it’s unlikely that China would attack the Philippines. Both China and the Phil were victims of Japanese atrocities. Both countries were victims of foreign invasions and abuses. Between Japan and the Phil, China hates the former more. China would most likely go to war with Japan than the Phil.
@Mannie#47, always good to hear from people who could have done it better than the Americans did it. The world would be peace and riches if it weren’t for those war-mongering imperialist American cowboy gunslingers.
Thanks. As long as there’s greed among people, there shall be no peace in this world.
@wrmead Chinese gov’t mouthpiece: Russia and China should increase cooperation to weaken a “depressed West” wp.me/p4ja0Z-mt5
china is now backing russia on crimea’s annexation.
here’s the thing with china and russia: if china is okay with russia seizing territory, it’s likely that russia will also be okay with china going into a war with japan and PHL over their territories.
China has always been on Russia’s side against the West. One thing that makes China so powerful internationally is that she’s a member of the UN Security Council that can veto.
Reading between the lines, you probably dont know that Russia is also a member of the UN security council.
#42. “we cant even fish in those areas without being water cannoned in our own backyard!”-John
John, you better check with your sources who are knowledgeable of the situation in Zambales and the area in Scarborough/Panatag shoal. As far as we know, our fishermen fish in the area freely because there’s an understanding of peaceful co-existence.
That the reason why when that the hosing by Chinese Coastguard of our fishermen who got too near to the Chinese ship unintentionally, happened, President Aquino didn’t over-react.
Here’s from my Feb. 25 article:
“That’s why President Aquino was uncharacteristically a voice of moderation in this incident. Talking to reporters in Cebu, where the 1986 Edsa People Power was commemorated, Aquino noticed inconsistencies in Bautista’s revelation because at the very time the Armed Forces chief was telling the foreign correspondents about the Jan. 27 incident, Filipino fishermen were fishing inside the shoal.
Aquino said: “May I add na medyo inconsistent rin yung nangyari dyan. We’re not sure at this point in time if we can call it their standard operating procedure. Kasi as of yesterday, we had fishermen inside the shoal, inside the shoal who are not being harassed or intimidated by any entity. So ayaw naman natin mag-react kung one of incident ‘to that they probably will say was acting not under their orders but out of ‘yung para bang dinesisyunan ng kapitan ng particular boat na ‘yun.”
http://www.ellentordesillas.com/2014/02/25/28-daysdelayed-reaction-to-water-cannon-incident/
http://globalnation.inquirer.net/99426/aquino-asks-china-to-explain-water-cannon-incident
# 41″It’s our territory, why can’t we even send ships over scarborough without being harassed by Chinese patrol boats?” John
John, we can send our ships (Coast Guard, BFAR or Philippine Navy)there in Scarborough shoal and the Chinese won’t bother them as long as they don’t bump into each other. As i said, there is an unwritten agreement of peaceful co-existence and it is working.
Question: Is it sensible,is it wise to station government ships in Scarborough shoal?
How many ships does the Philippine Coast Guard have? How many does BFAR have? How many does the Philippines Navy have?
I don’t have the exact numbers but it’s is safe to say the total number won’t reach 10. How big is the coastal waters of the Philippines that have to be monitored? It is not only the Chinese in Scarborough shoal that we have to be concerned about. There’s smuggling, piracy. There’s the waters in tawi-tawi and Palawan. And the relief and rescue operations in times of disaster.
The lesson here is, the best defense is as much as possible, have good relations with your neighbors. In cases of conflict, act responsibly.
#52, Manuel, the key word in the MDT is “public vessel.”
… an armed attack on either of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the Parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.”
It does not matter where it is; in disputed or undisputed territory. If the US considers BRP Sierra Madre a “public vessel” which we believe it is, then the MDT can be invoked.
But I don’t think the US will make a stand on it. They will play it safe, be ambiguous about it being a public vessel.
noong panahong hindi pa malay magkaroon ng tensyon sa mga pinag-aagawang teritoryo at mga intsik ay wala pang matatag na mga kabuhayan sa pilipinas sila (mga intsik) ay palasak nang tawagin ng “beho” na ewan kung ano ang tunay na ibig sabihin o ipakahulugan ng ating mga kababayan bilang pang-aalaska. ngayon na ang PROC ay itinuturing na isang economic giant na sa maniwala’t sa hindi ang mga nakararami dito sa bahay ni ellen AY lihim na sumusuporta sa ginagawi ng pamahalaang intsik sa pagkamkam sa ating mga teritoryo na nag-ugat sa pagkagahaman ng administrasyong arroyo NA naging daan bilang pahintulot sa naturang pangangamkam.
huwag kalimutan ang naunsyaming ZTE deal kung saan kumita ng daang milyong dolyar ang mag-asawang kawatan!
“……sa maniwala’t sa hindi ang mga nakararami dito sa bahay ni ellen ang mga negosyanteng tsinoy AY lihim na sumusuporta sa ginagawi ng pamahalaang intsik sa pagkamkam sa ating mga teritoryo na nag-ugat sa pagkagahaman ng administrasyong arroyo…..”
baka meron pa sa inyo dito ang umaasa na mauulit ang kasaysayan sa pagitan ni DAVID at GOLIATH.
malabo na ‘yun dahil sa panahon ngayon, KUNG sino ang malaki, masalapi at makapangyarihan AY siyang kinakampihan kahit alam ng nakararami na sila ay NASA maling lugar!
#59, oh yes. I forgot to include Russia. Thanks for the correction. Well, there are now powerful countries that belong to UN Security Council. Therefore, getting a UN approval has become the least option.
FYI, CCP Chief was arrested. I wonder if this is a retaliation to China. The authorities could have arrested him long ago if they wanted. Expect the leftist militants to hold protest rallies and the leftist politicians crying foul. NPA is funded by China anyway. Human Rights Commission chaired by a leftist would complain saying it’s a human rights violation.
Many Chinoys in the Philippines including the Chinoy Taipans could be supporting China more than they do to the Philippines. Lucio Tan and Henry Sy have lots of investments in China. Based on this close business relationship plus the fact that there are so many ethnic Chinese in the Philippines, China would unlikely attack the Philippines. We only have to look around…many of our neighbors, employers, compadres and friends are Chinoys.
I would like to reiterate that if there’s going to be a military conflict, it would be between China and Japan. China hates Japan a lot more than she does to other countries. China like the Philippines were victims of past Japanese atrocities and abuses. Lucky for Japan, she has US behind her.
#62
Okay Ellen we disagree om when the MDT can be invoked because you think that where it is parked is irrelevant.
I think it is the crux of the matter. As far as China is concerned the public vessel is trespassing on its territory and it has every right to take action against it.
I think the US will remain neutral and not affirm or deny that a public vessel is parked in Philippine or Chinese territory.
#68 I’m not taking side but I think you got a point. If someone’s car is illegally parked in my driveway, I have the right to have it towed. In the meantime, the claim or claimants have to wait for the outcome of the international court decision. The Phil has an edge as far as international support is concerned for most nations are on RP’s side.
it’s possible that the were waterhosed at that time and at the same time china decided to allow us to fish in those areas recently because of increased scrutiny.
i wish the fishermen who were waterhosed videotaped the event.
but china chasing away foreign ships from their supposed “territory” off the philippine coast is real, if you doubt it.
thediplomat.com/2014/03/china-to-foreign-fishing-boats-get-out-of-south-china-sea/
online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304470504579164873258159410
what do you meant by that? as long as they are not near each other’s thousand feet radius? or physical contact. and can US ships patrol scarboroagh and spratlys?
Forget about Uncle Sam’s help in the meantime. The US is busy dealing with Crimea crisis. To the US, it’s more priority over there than here. We’re used to being too dependent to the US and other countries for so long now. This is the consequence.
#71, John, how did the U.S.get into the picture of presence in Scarborough and Spratly?
The issue is between the Philippines and China, who both claim that the Scarborough shoal is part of their respective territory and in Spratlys where they also have conflicting claims but involving also Brunei,Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan.
# 13. . . . . . “It warned, however, that “these additional resources are not considered commercial reserves at this time; extracting them may not be economically feasible.”….
an explanation which seems so hard to accept, especially from a US source but if it really is, THEN when does this source think the resources sitting under the contested area be commercially viable? after they finished secretly extracting oil or gas from said area?
the whole universe knows that the US of A always trains its eyes on anything that would be beneficial on their part especially oil of which, america sits on a vast reserve but its government does not want to touch and to be brought out from where it is when other nations begin dwindling theirs.
#74 Very well said. That’s exactly my position. You hit the bull’s eye, sir.
“…….If China tows BRP Sierra Madre out of Ayungin Shoal, will the United States help the Philippines under the MDT?”
MDT is just a cover of what real motive Uncle Sam has in his mind. He’ll only lift a hand when his interest is put into perile if and when tension between and among the contesting nations flares up. The situation now is very far different from that of the WWII when Japan directly attacked America and spread the conflict in the Far East especially the Philippines which was used by the US government as the battleground against the Japanese invaders in order to avoid destruction of their own backyard.
#76 Furthermore, trade between the US and China reaches the highest during the last decades with the US owing China trillions in debts. US companies and manufacturers are in China. The two need one another. The US in fact needs China more than the Phil.
# 77. USA needs a tattered begging friend (sic) like the Philippines to boost its invincible image and status infront of the world media but it needed more a rich associate like China to keep its stature afloat in the ocean of economic and industrial competition. If the Uncle Sam is asked to choose which to stick with and pick, surely he would dump the Philippines like a sucking parasite and side with China.
Harry L. Roque Jr. on Ayungin: Conquest No Longer Valid Means to AcquireTerritory
Even if China were to remove the Sierra Madre from Ayungin shoal and build yet another artificial island there, it will never acquire title over the area. The reason: International Law has long outlawed the acquisition of territory through conquest.
China also better rethink whether it should tow-away a commissioned naval vessel. Derelict as it may be, it is subject to full sovereign immunity and any attempt to tow it away from Ayungin may finally trigger the applicability of the US-Phil Mutual Defence Treaty.
Thus far the US has said that the Treaty may not be triggered by fighting in the West Philippine Sea because it does not recognize Philippine title to the area. But an attack against a Philippine commissioned naval vessel may be sufficient for the purpose.
The result: the West Philippine Sea, unless China backs off, may trigger the biggest armed conflict in the region since the Vietnam and Indo-China conflict.
The prediction that WW3 would begin in Middle East has become untrue. WW3 shall begin in Asia-Pacific. But the chance of direct military conflict between China and Phil is remote compared to China vs Japan. If war is to break out, it would be between China and Japan then the Phil gets involved directly or indirectly. The US would be constrained to join in the fray. Then, Nokor would take advantage of the conflict by attacking Sokor. I could see a dark bleak picture if this happens. Let’s pray it will not.