There’s a compelling reason for President Aquino to make sure that that he would be able to influence the people’s choice of his successor otherwise he would suffer the same fate that befell the two presidents before him.
His predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, is in jail – hospital arrest, actually- facing plunder and electoral sabotage charges.
Arroyo’s predecessor, Joseph Estrada, spent six years in detention- much of it under house arrest – for plunder. Convicted, he was later pardoned. He nearly made a comeback as president in 2010, placing second to Aquino. He is now mayor of the city of Manila.
Surely, Aquino knows that in his position, it’s not a matter of good intentions as his “Tuwid na Daan” slogan trumpets. As president, he makes decisions, sometimes resorting to legal brinkmanship. Example is the Disbursement Acceleration Program, the legality of which is being questioned in the Supreme Court.
During his incumbency, a president is immune from suits and can only be removed by impeachment which is initiated by the House of Representatives. Aquino can sleep well that no impeachment against him would succeed because the speaker of the House, Feliciano “Sonny” Belmonte, and Jr is a loyal ally.
The ties that bind Aquino and Belmonte are solid. Belmonte’s city administrator when he was Quezon City mayor is Aquino’s executive secretary – Paquito Ochoa, Jr.
Aquino’s concern, and for that matter all presidents’, is their vulnerability from suits once they are out of Malacañang.
Aquino’s mother, Corazon Aquino, was amply protected because her successor, Fidel Ramos, was her anointed.
Ramos did not have Cory’s advantage because the candidate he endorsed , Lakas-NUCD’s Jose de Venecia, lost to Estrada.
Ramos was investigated by the Estrada administration of involvement in the P7.3-billion Centennial Expo project in Angeles City, Pampanga . ( Ombudsman Aniano Desierto, his appointee, later on dropped him from the list of those being investigated.)
Estrada’s did not have the chance to influence the choice of his successor as he was ousted barely halfway through his six-year term.
Arroyo, who replaced Estrada, acknowledged the support of Ramos and several military generals in the ouster of actor- turned- president- now- mayor. Estrada believed that Ramos did so because of the Centennial Expo Scam.
Arroyo, who was so unpopular by the end of her nine-years in Malacañang, was of no help to the presidential bid of her candidate, Gilbert Teodoro.
It remains to be seen if Aquino’s popularity, undented by his immature leadership especially in times of crisis, would be good enough to make his endorsement valuable by 2016.
It also depends on who he would be endorsing.
Since Aquino is chairman of the Liberal Party, it is expected that he would be supporting the LP candidate for president. Right now, the one being touted as LP bet is Interior Secretary Mar Roxas.
If Roxas runs for president in 2016, Aquino would look ungrateful if he does not endorse him for president considering that Roxas gave up his well-laid out 2010 presidential bid and slid down to be Aquino’s running mate.
But then, will Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas get the latter the presidency? Informed sources said in post-Yolanda surveys, which showed satisfaction rating for Aquino steady despite his bunglings, Roxas’ score dropped substantially.
Aside from Roxas, other LP names being mentioned as possible 2016 standard bearers are Senate President Franklin Drilon and Transportation and Communications Secretary Joseph Emilio “Jun” Abaya. Both are considered lightweights as presidential contenders.
Outside the Liberal Party, there is someone angling for an Aquino endorsement: Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano. That is if he gets past Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos as Nacionalista Party standard bearer.
At the opposite side of the administration party is the United Nationalist Alliance, whose head, Vice President Jejomar Binay, Sr, has not been shy about his 2016 presidential plans.
Binay’s national campaign machinery is formidable, it was able to make his daughter Nancy, a political unknown, win as senator in last year’s election. In many provinces, posters just carried the Binay name without pictures which made people think that they were voting for the vice president for senator.
Would it be possible for Aquino to support Binay for president? Why not? Not openly endorse perhaps but it’s not unthinkable.
After all, there’s a Noy-Bi faction in Malacañang, who includes no less than the immediate members of the President’s family. And Aquino tolerated that in the 2010 elections.
One of the best articles I have read so far. Excellent analysis. From beginning to end of the article, it was written based on logic, facts and realities of the political games.
With the appointment of Lacson as Rehabilitation Czar, we could see that Roxas has lost Pnoy’s confidence which was strengthened by the resignations (forced?) of some of his men.
But Pnoy doesn’t trust Lacson. He used Lacson to neutralize Roxas. He doesn’t trust Binay either, but would pick Binay due to this man’s ability to compromise. By picking Binay, he gets Erap, Enrile and even JDV. One problem is that Pnoy has no solid base to pick a presidential candidate. Drilon is weak and unpopular. Alan Cayetano is good perhaps as Vice President and not ripe for presidency. The article failed to mention the importance of getting INC’s endorsement. One, two or three million INC votes could spell the difference in a tight race. And politicians tend to follow INC given the history of this tie up with the powerful religious group that has members and moles in most government agencies; AFP and PNP.
The analysis showed one obvious fact that Erap was a victim rather than the oppressor. Yes, no dispute about his crime and conviction. But he was a victim of grand conspiracy. Had Erap be able to pick his loyal successor, he would not have been impeached and convicted. One of the culprits was Ramos who was hated by many politicians for his character and history of betrayal. As a Protestant, if Ramos could carry the statue of Virgin Mary and raise it during the Edsa Revolt, attend the Catholic Mass all these were no no to Protestant’s teachings, what more in politics and his dealings with people. Please take note that Erap and Ramos never talk in public and official gatherings. Erap has already forgiven all his enemies including the one who made his ouster possible, Chavit Singson. But I don’t think Erap has forgiven Ramos. And Miriam Santiago? If she could shoot Ramos in the head, she would.
Jinggoy and Bong Revilla are out of the race. Pnoy might pick Binay then the vice presidential candidate is easy. So, Binay a candidate of LP for 2016 is very possible since LP and UNA are political allies.
Nauna na nga is Ai-Ai mag-indorso kay Binay! 😀
Hindi ko alam kung naiinis ako o natatakot sa analysis mo, Ellen. 😀
Pero agree ako kay Mannie, one of your best article/analysis ito.
Kung ako si VP Binay, o Sen. Binay, o Cong. Binay. o Mayor Binay…lulundag ako sa tuwa sa artikulo mo, Ellen. I would bow before you saying, Namaste! 🙂
Thanks Chi.
Ai-Ai, Kris Aquino, Boy Abunda all endorsed GMA for a fee. Each got paid around P10M each. So you see, even our movie stars and celebrities are also corrupt in a way.
While Roxas has no serious corruption case, his character is something to be cautious about including his wife Korina who’s dominant and rude in real life. Binay, Roxas…not my choice. I still hope some other desirable candidates come up as the 2016 election comes close.
Lacson will be President. The Dasma fiasco killed Binays ambition. No personality from the liberal or nationalista or any major political party will win because of the pork barrel scam. The kapatiran party should take advantage of this.
In the meantime, here’s another attack by Atty. Rodis in his column:
http://globalnation.inquirer.net/95787/fears-of-a-narco-state
Heavyweight contender Sen. Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr.
From Thanny:
Taga Cagayan de Oro po ako. Kahit nandito ako sa middle East palagi kung sunusubaybayan ang opinion mo at blog. Dati may password po ako sa blog mo pero ewan ko now hindi na ako makaopen.
Sa opinyon mo today nabanggit mo si Roxas, Drilon, at Abaya na pwedeng pagpilian ni Pnoy. Sa tatlong pulitiko na binanggit mo, malabo silang tatlo doon sa amin sa Mindanao lalo na pag kasama pa rin si VP Binay at President Erap Estrada.
Malakas si VP Binay sa Mindanao No. 1 sya doon sila ni Erap, sabi nga frend ko na syang humamahawak sa Northern Mindanao Movement for UNA-JCB, na kahit ngayon gawin ang Election mananalo si VP Binay at kahit ipunin ang balota ni Roxas, Drilon, Abaya.. silang tatlo lamang pa rin si VP Binay.
Ang No. 2 Presidentiable na malakas doon si Sen. Escudero although No. 2 sya pero malayo kay VP Binay, pero sabi ng frend ko na kung sakali si Sen. Escudero ay tumakbong Vice ni Binay malamang lanslide sila sa Mindanao. Pero kung sakali si Sen. Escudero ang iindorso ni Pres. Pnoy plus makinarya ng admin mapapalaban si Binay ng husto pag si Sen. Escudero ang pambato ng Liberal Party.
Maraming salamat po Ate Ellen, God bless you!
Thanny, I will send you another password.
Mawalang galang lang Ms. Ellen.
Ang premise ng article ay: Dahil sa takot na matulad sa mga dating presidente na nasakdal sa mga kasong pandarambong at korupsyon, kailangang siguraduhin ni Pnoy na malaki ang tsansang manalo ang taong susuportahan nya sa presidential election sa 2016.
May nga pagkakamali at pagkukulang si PNoy bilang presidente pero wala naman na mahihintulad sa kasakiman ni GMA at Erap. Si GMA matalino at kurakot, si Erap tanga at kurakot at si Pnoy, sa tingin ng iba, tanga perom sa tingin din ng iba, hindi kurakot.
Bakit hindi pwedeng makatulad sa nanay nya si Pnoy na walang maikaso pagkatapos maging Presidente dahil pwedeng sa tingin ng iba, tanga si Cory pero siguradong hindi nangurakot. Wala ring basehan na si Cory ang nag indorse kay Ramos kaya hindi nakasuhan dahil kung mayrun mang mabigat na krimen na ginawa si Cory, pwede pa ring kasuhan pagkatapos ng anim na taon ni Ramos dahil ang ang presciption ng mabigat na krimen ay lagpas ng anim na taon.
Kung susuportahan man nya si Binay, hindi dahil ayaw nyang matutulad kina Erap at GMA. Pwedeng dahil mas malapit ang pamilya nya kina Binay kaysa kay Roxas.
Oblak, basahin ng mabuti ang article.
Take note of this part:”Surely, Aquino knows that in his position, it’s not a matter of good intentions as his “Tuwid na Daan” slogan trumpets. As president, he makes decisions, sometimes resorting to legal brinkmanship. Example is the Disbursement Acceleration Program, the legality of which is being questioned in the Supreme Court.”
Sa posisyun ng president, marami siyang desisyun na gagawin na kahit isip niya legal, maaring kwestiy8unin balang araw. Alam mo naman ang batas, maraming interpretasyun.
Si Cory Aquino, isa sa mga rason kung bakit hindi nakasuhan si Cory ay dahil na-protektahan siya ng husto ni Ramos na siyang kanyang inindorso.
Galing kay Mercy:
Nabasa ko ang kolum mo tungkol sa kung sino ang ii-endorse ni Pinoy bilang kandidato sa 2016. Mas gusto kong I-endorse niya si Panfilo Lacson. Pag si Lacson ang nagging Pangulo ng Bansa eh mababawasan kundi man mawawala ang mga Drug Mule, Drug Addict, mga pushers at mga masasamang-loob tulad ng carnaper, rapist at ibang pang mga outlaws sa ating bansa, lalong-lalo na ang mga Intsik.
Pag si Binay naman ang nagging Pangulo ng Bansa eh maghahari-harian lang ang kanyang mga anak. Kita mo na nga ang nangyari sa Dasma? Itanong mo kay Tulfo ang mga kayabangan ng Mayor ng Makati. Sasabihin sa iyo ni Mon Tulfo kung sino si Junjun Binay
If the report is true that Erap and GMA are forming an alliance, then UNA which Erap heads together with Binay and Enrile shall be allied with GMA camp. I suggest that they name it UNANO.
#13. Exactly the reason why Erap visited the UNANA. Susunod ng bibisita si Binay. Langya, these tradpols swallow anything yucky!
Erap / GMA + Tabako alliance.. nakakatakot. ano ang balak nilang gawin sa bansa natin. Puro may kaso sa pang dadaraya ang mga ito.
May binabalak silang gawin na naman di mabuti sa ating bansa.
Bilyon-bilyon ang nanakaw sa lumipas na panahon. Pag nagsama sama ito ay trillion trillion na ang mawawala.
sabagay ditto sa atin kung sino ang mag nanakaw na politico ay nabibiyaan ng husto.
Sorry Von, were you born yesterday? You failed to include the Marcoses. Tell me past and present leaders who are not corrupt? The late Cory might not be corrupt but she was surrounded by corrupt people and church men including her own brother Peping, head of then Kamag-anak Inc. Pnoy is clean and not corrupt but what about his cabinet members, men in Malacanang, and political allies. Those who condone corruption are corrupt themselves.
Mannie, I guess you look your self if your born yesterday. We are talking about the alliance of three corrupt former presidents dito. Iyan and topic diba. I know Marcos is corrupt but pipiliin ko na kay macoy kesa sa nag daan na presidents.
Sorry Mannie,
Dedo na sina Marcos at Cory and the topic ay alliance ng former presidents.
Kaya nga sinabi ko na nakakatakot itong Tatlo at kung ano ang binabalak gawin. Sigurado kapakanan nila ang unang gagawin dahil kung magagawa ni Pnoy ang “Tuwid na Daan” ay siguradong mayroon kang ikakaso sa kanila. Kaso nga lang ay mahina ang presidente natin ngayon at nanalo lang sa “Symphaty Vote”.
Ang Tuwid na daan niya ay papunta sa Baguio City (ZIGZAG).
Von, you didn’t quite get me. What I was pointing out was no President past or present is clean. And if some were not corrupt, they’re also indirectly corrupt by condoning their men. Yes, Marcos and Cory were dead. But when it comes to making a general statement even if you were only referring to the three who are reportedly to be forming an alliance, I think you failed to present the total picture of what corruption really is. Having said that, I do respect your opinion.
Mannie, I just want to point out ang present future dahil kahit isama mo pa ang lahat ng corrupts sa nakalipas na panahon ay walang mangyayari na. Kaya itong bagong alliance ay dapat natin tignan ng husto dahil may binabalak iyan di para sa ikakaunlad ng bansa natin kundi para sa kanilang kapakanan. Marami silang tagong baho for sure.
Madalas natin sabihin si Marcos ay corrupt or si Cory ay iyung mga galamay ang corrupt. wala na iyun at mahahabol pa ba natin. Kailangan natin ngayon ay bantayan ang kinabukasan para di ma ulit pa.
Everyone’s know ang tungkol sa mga corrupt na presidents natin noon pero may nagsasabi ba dito kung papaano mapipigilan ang ibang pang uupo sa atin or magiging pangulo sa 2016. Para mahinto ang pag nanakaw. May suggestion ka ba Mannie.
I agree, Von. But even if the three crooks don’t form an alliance or the group fails in 2016 election, what’s the guarantee that the other side is not corrupt? I mean, Pnoy’s anointed candidate?
kahit DEMONYO ang kalaban ni Binay bilang president, si DEMONYO ang iboboto ko. wag lang si Binay. dahil si DEMONYO ay isa lang. si Binay ay may anak na tatlo na naka upo na. Tama ang sabi ni Mercy. ask Tulfo kung ano ang kalokohan ng mga Binay.
#13, Mannie you make my day. ako’y naka ngisi na, nakatawa pa.
Thanks Jojo. I’m glad you like my corny joke. Here’s another suggestion:
DOH Sec. Ono could run for senator under the UNA Party. If he joins, Erap may change the party name to ONO. And if the alliance is formed and Ono is included, then they could name it UNANONO.
#22. Si Lucifer ay may mga mini-me, akakatakot talaga!
Hey Chi, you mean I’m Lucifer ’cause my name is Mannie (mini-me) ?
Mannie’s thesis – that all Phil. administrations, past, present,and future, are dirty – is typical of the general hopelessness and the negativity that is holding us back from the opportunities of progress and development that we choose to ignore because … we’re corrupt?
Sure the dark ones, literally and figuratively, Binay and his gang need to be rejected. For the saints, those who don’t sin because they just don’t do anything like Cory and Noynoy yet he blames the relatives, underlings, etc.
Then the incorruptible, strict headmasters like Lacson, maybe Duterte, gets recycled charges usually coming from the same accusers, resurrecting old tales and like zombies are given a new spin in order to live.
Which leaves us with the young turks like Escudero, Bongbong, Cayetano and an emerging politician who may surprise us in 2016 – Grace Poe. Already, a group of writers are spinning yarns about Poe’s real origins. That she is actually the daughter of Mackoy by Rosemarie Sonora, Susan Poe’s sis.
Ah, at least there’s a bright spot in there. Mmm, why not?
The chismis about Grace Poe being Da Apo Makoy’s daughter with the actress Rosemarie has been quite around since the early ’70s. Only Rosemarie and Susan Roces know the truth about the paternity of Senator Poe.
Grace Poe? Macoy?
Simple lang. Get the DNA of Bongbong or Imee, and Grace. That should settle it.
Can’t get them to submit their saliva? Use a worn-out trick seen many times in Law and Order. Get the glasses from which they drank water (Senate page: Magkano tip ko to get it Sir?)
The use of DNA of descendants to connect another descendant was used to verify claims by some women that they are Anastassia Romanov. The Pinay in the news sometime ago could have also volunteered her DNA.
Erap,FVR, GMA are planning an alliance to support a candidate against P-Noy’s candidate for the 2016 presidential election? It will not happen mga ‘igan!!!
Well malayo pa naman ang 2016 pero kung everyday iyan ang usapan nyo parang pinalalakas nyo silang tatlo at malamang baka mapilitan sila kasi sigaw ng bayan ika nga. Advise ko to all of you to buy a smartphone yong may GPS para makita nyo ang tulig na daan.
I mean tuwid na daan, sorry! Hehe!
How about Escudero for president?
Escudero? He needs to get Heart’s parents’ votes first. 🙂
Pnoy:Bahala na si Lord sa inyo busy ako! Roxas:Bahala kayo sa buhay nyo! Ito ang team ko! Vote! Team Bahala na 2016! My only wish na sana Pnoy will endorse Roxas for Pres. and Drilon for Vice. Ang saya kaya. An old saying goes… the political party may err but the sovereign people will not.Let the people decide. Go go go… “tubig na daan” for a disaster president!
#32m Ngeek.
Actually I’m not sold on Escudero. There is something suspicious about him. I just mentioned it because he also tried in 2010.
No one inspiring among the early contenders.
My fearless forecast:
Grace Poe is the only antidote to the deadly Binay poison. Binay will finally lose his biggest supporter, Erap, who has no choice but to support Poe. Of course he will work hard for a Binay-Poe ticket at the beginning. Erap has seen the effects Poe’s defiance of his UNA slate in last years elections – she was declared topnotcher even without appearing in any UNA sortie. If Poe refuses to run vice Binay, and I hope (and believe) she will, then decides to clash head-on, Erap will side with her.
The support for her snowballs afterwards. So the card turns Bongbong vs Grace. As much as the intelligentsia and the pseudo-intelligentsia hate the Binays, the oligarchy hates Bongbong. Both Bongbong and Binay gets dumped by a significant number of the upper crust and divides the masa crumbs between themselves.
Meanwhile, LP again drops Roxas as its prexy bet and adopts Poe as their party’s standard bearer and gives her an LP running mate lest they be rendered insignificant post-Aquino. All LP members are political lightweights individually and they hate to admit it. Some diehards will forward a foolhardy Kris Aquino candidacy but to no avail.
Poe, now with Erap on her side, strengthens her hold on the masa and that of the disgruntled upper crust.
Poe wins.
hurrah for you tongue. may you have an angel’s tongue.
From attyeric:
I read your article regarding pnoy’s possible endorsement of vp binay for presisdent in 2016.
I agree with your analysis but i just want to make some comment.
I think it would be better for pnoy to endorse Grace Poe for president in 2016 since she projects the image
of uncorruptible, the image which “tuwid na daan” wants filipino people to see. After all, Grace Poe is the
the daughter (and this is dabatable) of FPJ who is still popular even in his grave.
VP Binay, who is also called “The Almight of Makati,” is not suitable to carry-on the banner of “tuwid na
daan” considering that he was involved in several corruption allegations in the past.
What do think of The Almighty of Makati versus Snow White in the 2016 presidential elections? After all, Philippine elections have always been conducted like a fairy tale, except that the winners and losers in the elections don’t live happily ever after.
#34 Becky, I’m no fan of those who separate from their spouses. Without offense to those broken families and couple separation and you could call be traditional and conservative. If one cannot handle a marriage well or cannot handle a family, how could he be a good leader?
Two and a half years more to go. Many things could happen. Binay is enjoying high rating now but he can’t be sure that will hold up to 2016.
As to Mar, I don’t think he can turn around his image as a wimp in two and a half years.
Sad thing, after Andres Bonifacio and the Katipuneros fought for freedom against the empire of Spain, the oligarchy and elite still rule this country.