Lee didn’t make it as envoy to China

The Commission on Appointments was not able to take up the nomination of Domingo Lee as ambassador to China in its hearing last Wednesday so he won’t be able to assume the post in time for the visit of President Aquino starting tomorrow up to Sept. 2.

To justify Lee’s inclusion in the official delegation, President Aquino appointed him “presidential adviser for the China visit.”

We are sure the Chinese will perfectly understand.

The next CA meeting will be on Sept. 7. If any member of the CA invokes Sec. 20 (Suspension of action by the Commission on any nomination), Lee would have to wait for the November hearing for him to take on his much-coveted post which he got with a lot of help from presidential brother-in-law Eldon Cruz.

That should give him time to make his assets and income tax payments jibe because we heard a CA member noticed the big discrepancy and would like to ask him about it.

But even without Lee in Beijing, preparations for what promises to be an extravaganza of business cooperation are going well. The Department of Foreign Affairs , with charge d’affaires Alex Chua taking care of the Beijing side of the preparation, is making sure that this would be a productive visit.

We are told that some 18 economic and business contracts will be signed.

Some 250 businessmen are accompanying the president in this China visit. Anybody who is somebody in business is in the list. Manny Pangilinan, the Zobel de Ayala brothers Jaime Augusto and Fernando.

The taipans will be there of course including Lucio Tan.

We understand the younger taipans will be part of the delegation including Tessy Sy Coson. So are Jollibee’s Tony Tan Caktiong and Carlos Chan of Liwayway Corporation, makers of the popular Oishi food products.

Such a high-power business delegation on a state visit is not unusual. Except for the younger crop of Tsinoy businessmen, the captains of the industry were all present during President Fidel Ramos visit to China.

The late JV Cruz, journalist and ambassador, in his usual wit, remarked as he surveyed the passengers on the presidential flight: “If this plane crashes, Philippine economy would be left to sari-sari storeowners.”

We wish President Aquino a safe and successful China visit.

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I’m reprinting here the Philippine Star column of former Foreign Secretary Roberto R. Romulo on the President’s China state visit:

Rebalancing our policy towards China and US

By Roberto R. Romulo

Several months ago I wrote in this column the following:

“There is no question that the Philippines must engage China. Such a relationship holds many potential benefits for our country. However, this cannot be to the diminution or exclusion of our relations with the US. That would be foolhardy. And yet it seems we have taken these relations for granted and tilted the balance towards what is fashionable now – currying China’s affection. But as we have seen from how the West Philippine Sea issue is evolving, China’s own interest does not necessarily conform to ours. The time is now to craft a foreign policy agenda that balances these competing interests and influences to serve the national good. The changing of the helm at the Department of Foreign Affairs as well as the key posts of Beijing and Washington provides the opportunity to reassess our policy agenda with these two powers that have so much influence on our country’s future.”

Tilting our policy towards one or the other is counter strategic to our national interest.

China and the United States are both critical to our economic and security well-being. Maintaining an even keel in our relationship with both is the smart thing to do. Unfortunately, it seems that we have vacillated between affection and indifference – sometimes spilling over to outright hostility – depending on what is happening now rather than taking a long view. In good times, China is viewed by our leaders as a benign superpower and the key to our economic prosperity. We fret about American indifference to what we still longingly see as our special relations with them.

Now, with the growing assertiveness of China in the West Philippine Sea being countered by American declaration of national interest in the area, we see the former as a bully and the latter as our righteous protector. This has emboldened our military and our leadership at all levels to take on a macho stance and make borderline bellicose statements. There was even a governor who had no business trumpeting his views on what is a diplomatic issue better left to those in charge of this delicate task.

An understanding of the complexity of American-Chinese relations should give us pause and lead to crafting a policy that takes these realities into account. Despite the harsh rhetoric that they exchange every so often – which sometimes escalates into sporadic hostile actions – the United States and China just cannot do without each other.

The United States is China’s biggest export market and this trade generates the biggest source of its current account surplus. China on the other hand is the U.S. largest creditor as it holds $1.2 trillion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds. China is also the prime destination of American investments and the source of low cost goods that had kept many U.S. companies competitive and U.S. consumers happy. The Chinese market for American goods (not to mention services exports which is just as substantial) is nothing to sneeze at either. According to US statistics, the United States exported more than $110 billion worth of goods and services to China last year, which helped create more than 500,000 jobs in the US.

Vice-President Joe Biden’s visit to China manifests the U.S. concern at keeping its economic relations with this finally awakened giant on an even keel. Biden is expected to offer assurances that the U.S. government is committed to deal with the struggling US economy.

China has been critical of the handling of the recent US debt ceiling debate and of what it sees as the profligate ways of the U.S. – spending more than what it earns – that led to the crisis. The US Republicans and Democrats in Congress agreed earlier this month on a deal to raise the debt ceiling and cut the deficit, but the divisive political debate helped prompt a downgrade of the US credit rating from Standard & Poor’s.

The debt crisis has its roots in America’s consumerist economy .From a historical standpoint this has been beneficial for the rest of the world. Americans have been consuming foreign goods incurring large trade deficits that in turn become the engine for growth of among others the so-called tiger economies who supply these goods. It has accumulated to a point where its sustainability is now the subject of current debate. The U.S. has ceased to become the only driver of the global economy. In fact, the turnaround from the recent economic turmoil arising from the collapse of U.S. financial institutions was fueled by increased consumption in China and other Asian emerging markets. Despite the decline in American economic influence, it still remains a formidable market and the safest place for investments.

This economic symbiosis has created a complex relationship that makes a repeat of a Soviet Union-US type cold war less likely. The Soviet Union and the U.S. economies were pretty much isolated from each other at that time. They could afford to declare trade and investment embargoes against each other without much harm.

Biden’s visit is meant to reassure the creditworthiness of the U.S. and its capacity and commitment to tackle fiscal challenges. That the U.S. would eat humble pie is something we would not have foreseen happening as recently as a decade ago. But that is the reality now and we have to wake up and stop smelling the roses. The U.S. is making a back-to-Asia tack now not because we are lovable Asians with a long history of friendship with them but because it serves their national interest. Their national interest may not necessarily mean living up to our interpretation of the Mutual Defense Treaty.

As for China, we should have a better understanding of their internal dynamics. A new leadership is set to take power starting in 2012. They will have to establish their credibility first. That may mean taking a more assertive stance in pursuing their West Philippine Sea strategy. China has its own strategic and political interests to pursue that animate the position they have taken on the West Philippine Sea.

We should buckle down to rework our relationship with both that best serves our national interest. The decision to have a delegation of 250 businessmen for the forthcoming Chinese state visit is an excellent step in the right direction. Taking a macho posture has its purpose but only for the short term. Let us not delude ourselves into thinking that this is the sum of our foreign policy. We may rue the day we come to grips with reality if we do not take a more pragmatic and properly calibrated response.

Our Ambassador in Beijing

It would seem that the Commission on Appointments will not confirm a new ambassador prior to the President’s departure on August 30. Jose Cuisia is apparently doing his job in Washington, D.C. while we wait with bated breath whether we would have the same quality of representation in Beijing.