The race to Malacañang has become very tight with the top two “presidentiables” locked in a statistical tie, a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey commissioned by BusinessWorld showed.
The poll, the third conducted by the survey research institution for this newspaper, found the front-runners — senators Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III and Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. — both losing ground among voters with little over two months to go before the May 10 national elections.
The cost, however, was more substantial for the Liberal Party’s Mr. Aquino, who saw his overall score cut by a substantial six points to 36%, compared to just a one percentage-point drop to 34% for the Nacionalista Party’s Mr. Villar.
The gap between the two falls within the ±2.2% margin of error used in the Feb. 24-28 survey, which used face-to-face interviews of 2,100 registered voters nationwide.
It was the first SWS-BW poll conducted since the February 9 start of the national campaign period.
A new system was used by the SWS: instead of the respondent responding orally after being asked to pick from the list of candidates approved by the Commission on Elections (Comelec), they were now provided “ballots” — which they had to mark in private and then deposit in a container brought by the interviewer.
All lists on the ballot were in alphabetical order and included nicknames as practiced by the Comelec on election day.
The question asked was “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente, Bise-Presidente, at mga Senador ng Pilipinas. Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naa-angkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pina-kamalamang ninyong iboboto (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as President, Vice-President, and Senators of the Philippines. Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for).
In addition to those who declined to vote, did not choose or pick more than one presidential candidate, the 4% in the “undecided” category includes a small proportion — 1.6% — of ballots where the marks could not be read by an optical scanning machine.
“Assignment of the improperly marked ballots to the voters’ apparent choices would raise the national lead of Aquino over Villar by only 0.1%,” the SWS said.
The results contrast with a Feb. 21-25 Pulse Asia survey released last Friday which showed Mr. Aquino — a late entry to the race — pulling away from Mr. Villar who had long declared his ambition to be president. The Pulse Asia tally — 36% for Mr Arroyo versus 29% for Mr. Villar — reversed an erosion in the former’s once-substantial lead when he first threw his hat into the ring late last year.
An analyst said political machinery could start coming into larger play later this month, with local candidates scheduled to start stumping for their and allied national bets’ votes on March 26.
Mr. Aquino’s six-point fall, according to the SWS, came on account of drops in all four geographical study areas: seven points in the Balance of Luzon, six in Mindanao, five in the Visayas, and three in Metro Manila.
Mr. Villar, meanwhile, lost six percentage points in Metro Manila, two in the Balance of Luzon, and one in Mindanao, but picked up five in the Visayas to trim his overall slide to just one point.
By area, the SWS said Mr. Aquino remained ahead in Metro Manila, the Visayas, and Mindanao, while Mr. Villar was in front in the Balance of Luzon.
Their lost votes appear to have gone to the third- and fourth-ranked candidates: former President Joseph “Erap” M. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, who picked up two points to score 15%, and administration bet Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro of the Lakas-KAMPI-CMD, who also gained by two to 6%.
While the gap between the top two and the next two remained substantial, the SWS noted that support for Mr. Estrada was up by six points in Metro Manila, three in Mindanao, and one in the rest of Luzon. The former president — ousted, convicted of corruption and later pardoned — lost two points in the Visayas.
Mr. Teodoro, meanwhile, saw his support up by three points each in the Balance of Luzon and Mindanao, and by one in the Visayas, while dropping by only one point in Metro Manila.
Vote percentages for the rest of the presidentiables did not change significantly, the SWS said, from the previous poll done from Jan. 21-24. Eduardo C. “Bro. Eddie” Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas picked up a point to 3% to stay in fifth place, followed by Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon whose share stayed at 2%.
Kilusang Bagong Lipunan candidate Vetellano “Dodong” S. Acosta — disqualified by the Commission on Elections last week for not running a proper campaign — saw a minuscule uptick to 0.4%. The same 0.1 percentage point gain, to 0.2%, was enjoyed by independent candidate Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas.
Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes slipped by the same margin to 0.1%, while independent candidate Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal saw her 0.4% score in January cut to just 0.1%.
For area scores, the margins of error used were ±6% for Metro Manila and ±4% for the Balance of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.
By class, meanwhile, Mr. Aquino was said to be ahead among the masa or class D, albeit at a lower 38% from 45% previously, while Mr. Villar was the top pick for classes ABC — a lower 33% from 40% — and E — two points down to 34%.
“The key change from the Jan. 21-24 survey in class ABC was that both Villar and Aquino lost seven points, while Estrada gained four points and Teodoro gained two points,” the SWS said.
Mr. Villar did not widen a three-point ABC gap with Mr. Aquino but his lead over Mr. Estrada was cut to 19 points from 30 previously.
Among the masa, Mr. Aquino lost seven points while Mr. Villar stayed steady: the gap thus narrowed to four points. Mr. Estrada picked up a point to Mr. Teodoro’s two.
In class E, Mr. Aquino lost six points while Mr. Villar lost two. Mr. Teodoro gained three and Mr. Estrada two. The class E lead thus shifted to Mr. Villar, the SWS said.
Mr. Aquino declined to answer phone calls or reply to text messages. His spokesmen were also unavailable for comment.
Mr. Villar was also unavailable but his spokesman, former Cavite Rep. Gilbert C. Remulla, said: “Judging from the results of the past survey season, we can safely assume that at this point, it’s anybody’s ballgame. Sen. Manny Villar and the Nacionalista Party are pleased with the results and we consider our campaign to be on track with the results that we are getting.”
Messrs. Estrada and Teodoro were also not available for comment.
Earl G. Parreño, political analyst at the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms, commented: “Nobody is sure who will emerge in the end.”
He noted the erosion in the so-called “Cory magic” which had propelled Mr. Aquino to the front of the presidential race, prompting Sen. Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas to slide down to the vice-president slot.
Mr. Parreño claimed that based on command votes, which make up about 40% of the total, Messrs. Villar and. Teodoro could end up as top competitors given their machinery. — with a report from G. S. dela Peña
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Senator Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas remains the overwhelming favorite in the vice-presidential race despite the loss of a few points in the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey commissioned by BusinessWorld.
The Liberal Party still topped the list with a score of 45% during the Feb. 24-28 poll, down four points. Nearest rival Sen. Loren B. Legarda of the Nacionalista Party failed to capitalize, with her support staying at 28%.
Both had dropped earlier ambitions for the presidency: Mr. Roxas in favor of Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino III and Ms. Legarda who allied with Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr.
Mr. Roxas had previously trailed both Ms. Legarda and Mr. Villar in earlier SWS presidential polls.
Other vice-presidential bets also did not gain substantially: the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino’s Jejomar “Jojo” C. Binay picked up a point to 17%, as did Bagumbayan’s Bayani “BF” F. Fernando who scored 3%.
The administration bet, Lakas-KAMPI-CMD’s Eduardo “Edu” B. Manzano, stayed at 2%, followed by the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan’s Jose “Jay” Y. Sonza who improved to 1% from 0.3%.
Bringing up the rear were Bangon Pilipinas’ Perfecto “Kidlat” R. Yasay, unchanged at 0.4%, and Ang Kapatiran’s Dominador “Jun” F. Chipeco, Jr. , up to 0.4%.
The SWS asked 2,100 registered voters nationwide to fill up ballots with the question: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente, Bise-Presidente, at mga Senador ng Pilipinas. Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naa-angkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pina-kamalamang ninyong iboboto (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as President, Vice-President, and Senators of the Philippines. Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for).
The error margin used was ±2.2%.
Asked to comment on the result, Mr. Roxas brushed off the “softening” of his scores, claiming “it’s within the margin of error … This is no cause for concern.”
“I am very thankful for this lead … the public remains my inspiration. I can’t take everything for granted though.”
Ms. Legarda, or her representatives, were not available for comment.
Mr. Binay’s media officer Joey Salgado, meanwhile, said his candidate was bothered by Mr. Roxas’s consistent lead in the surveys. “If you look at his numbers, they’re declining,” he claimed.
“We see an indication of a shift in preference. There is a groundswell of support in the provinces and as the campaign progresses, we expect our numbers to further increase.” — Ira P. Pedrasa
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Reelectionist senators keep top slots
There were few changes to the list of candidates likely to make it to the senatorial “Magic 12” come May 10, with incumbents keeping their hold on the top four slots a few weeks from the start of the national campaign, a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey commissioned by BusinessWorld showed.
The Feb. 24-28 poll, which utilized face-to-face interviews of 2,100 registered voters nationwide, had reelectionist Sen. Ramon B. Revilla, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD as the top choice with 54%.
He was followed by Sen. Pilar Juliana S. Cayetano of the Nacionalista Party (NP) with 51%, Sen. Jose “Jinggoy” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) with 47%, and Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago with 46%.
In fifth and sixth, and both seeking a return to the upper chamber, were former senators Franklin M. Drilon (45%) and Ralph G. Recto (41%).
Seventh was Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile with 40%, who was closely followed by another Senate alumnus, Vicento “Tito” C. Sotto III with 39%.
Next was a potential first-time senator with 32%: Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr.
Following him were reelectionist Sen. Manuel “Lito” M. Lapid and former senator Sergio “Serge” D. Osmeña III, both with 31%.
Rounding out the list is another potential first-timer, Gwendolyn C. Pimentel-Gana – daughter of Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Q. Pimentel, Jr. – who picked up a few points 27%, up two notches from the previous Jan. 21-24 survey.
Statistically tied with her was Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto “TG” L. Guingona III (LP), whose 25% was within the ±2.2% margin of error used in the survey.
Just out of bounds were businessman Jose P. de Venecia III, son of former House Speaker Jose C. de Venecia, Jr. (PMP), and Muntinlupa City Rep. Rozanno Rufino B. Biazon (LP), both with 23%.
Both Messrs. Guingona and de Venecia made it to the Jan. 21-24 “Magic 12”.
Sought for comment, Ms. Cayetano noted that her awareness “has only increased 1% … I will endure with trying to make myself more known. I must say that I have been quite productive in the Senate, but the issues I covered were not political issues and these issues were not always in the front pages, that’s why I’m trying to reach people more.”
For his part, Mr. Drilon said: “I am satisfied with my rating. I am happy that people still support me regardless of the fact that I have been out of the Senate for three years. The leading candidates are all incumbents meaning that I have the highest vote out of the non-incumbents… this fact encourages me to improve more on my standing.”
Other candidates were not immediately available for comment. — JFSV
Sana magising naman sa katotohanan ang mamamayang pilipino. Huwag naman nating iboto sina Bong Revilla, Lito Lapid at Bongbong Marcos. Wala namang ginawa sa senado sina Bong Revilla at ang tamemeng Lito Lapid.
Ang kahayopang ginawa ng pamilya Marcos sa mamamayang Pilipino, nalimutan na ba ninyo? Kahit ganoon na kalaki ang kasalanang nagawa ng pamilya Marcos sa lahing Pilipino, pero they have show their DEEPEST ARROGANCE to us. Nakitaan nyo na ba ng katiting na pagsisisi ang pamilyang ito? WALA!
Ngayon iluluklok nyo naman si Bongbong. PILIPINO GUMISING NA KAYO! HINDI PA HULI ANG LAHAT. HUWAG IBOTO ANG KANDIDATONG WALANG PRINSIPYO AT NABUBUHAY LAMANG SA PAGIGING BALIMBING AT SIPSIP.
HINDI PA HULI ANG LAHAT. MAY PAG-ASA PA TAYO. IBOTO NATIN ANG KANDIDATONG KARAPATDAPAT SA SENADO.
Sen. Ramon B. Revilla, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD as the top choice with 54%.
He must be the Senate’s top achiever and the chamber’s champion of the masa. I see no other explanation.
Villar had no compunction about stealing from/cheating Congress to finance his C5Taga project so won’t come as a surprise if he ends up stealing the presidency.
Statistical tie between him and Aquino? No sweat! If he cannot overturn the results massively in his favour, there is every chance that he will want maintain this status quo by commissioning personal surveys to show a tie. In so doing, he will have every excuse/pretext to protest election results.
But if Villar is the cheat he is known to be, he will avoid the “protest” strategy. His ‘machinery’, in all likelihood, is already being greased massively to pave the way for stealing or vote buying. Pretty sure too that he’s got a couple of billions stashed away as contingency funds to buy off some election officials.
Anna,
Villar was able to raise P23 billion from the IPO of Vista Land. The holding period for the company was waived by the SEC. This gives Villar a free rein on the funds. Just imagine how deep his pocket is? He can virtually buy the election.
The senatorial elections look good!!
But Mar Roxas may be second-guessing himself by now.
schumey: Villar “can virtually buy the election”.. he definitely will buy the election..there is no doubt ..may bukas ba kaya ang Filipinas? ang pag asa lang ni Noynoy ay ang mga dasal ng mga madre..kasi ang mga madre matiaga magdasal at maulit o ulit..they will storm heaven with their prayers..wala silang bisyo..wala siyang asahan sa mga pari..busy yong mga iyon with their other activities..like tuma, tagay padir tagay pa..madyong, natatalo ka na ba padir? mag collection uli tayo! particularly true sa mga Filipino priests..not all but a number of them lalo na dito sa America..mayroon pang cafe at rosaryo..
.. si Villar marami na siyang available funds..and with the help of his friend, Mike Velarde..wala siyang problema..
..si Erap marami nga siyang fans pero sa init ng panahon sa Filipinas kulang ang pamaybay ng Manila..
..si Gibo naman pobrecito talaga..mahusay siya pero ang nakikita sa kanyang mukha ay si Gloria Macapagal Arroyo na pangit na pangit sa mga mata ng marami..kailangan niya ang ibang belo at hindi ang Gloria belo..sayang siya! ouede pa ba mag patransplant ng mukha? we still have one and a half month..kawawang nilalang!
I have lost all respect for SWS’ survey results ever since it was proven in 2004 that their results, especially those for Metro Manila, were erroneously collected by contractors. Again, in 2007, their senatorial poll surveys in the end were proven almost right only after Zubiri’s questionable win over Koko Pimentel in Maguindanao, luckily, the operations to replace Trillanes by Mike Defensor was a failure.
I believe SWS in the past 2 elections had been part of this government’s conspiracy in the conditioning of the voters’ minds into coming up with a lineup similar to their survey breakdown. Something is terribly wrong if their exit poll is a total reverse of the actual result. I wonder why many people still consider them credible.
It’s only Pulse Asia’s numbers that are acceptable to me.
dapat kasi ipagbawal na lang ng komolek yang pagpapalabas ng survey results sa publiko… malaking tulong yan sa mga kandidato… pero sa publiko, hindi magandang naiimpluwensyahan ng mga survey ang pagpili ng kandidato o pagboto… may ganito klaseng survey ba na lumalabas sa publiko sa amerika kapag panahon eleksyon?
SWS is not reliable at all! Mahar Mangahas lost all his credibility during the 2004 elections.
Whoever commissioned the survey would certainly rate high. Ricky Razon, GMA’s crony is now backing Villar. He is behind SWS and Manila Standard.
Oo naman, mas marami pa nga e. Ang kaibahan ng survey sa America at sa Pinas, pag sa America lumabas sa survey na mahina ang isang kandidato sa isang state, ang partido katulong ang volunteers ay gumagawa ng hakbang para maitaas ang bilang niya sa susunod na survey.
Dito sa Pilipinas, ginagamit ang resulta ng survey para magka-bandwagon effect. Yung mga tao kasi gusto laging makisawsaw sa panalo kaya laging sa liyamado bumoboto imbes na mag-volunteer sa tamang kandidato.
Isa pa, malayo kung ikukumpara halimbawa ang Gallup Poll sa gaya ng SWS Survey. Kredibilidad ang pinag-uusapan diyan.
#10 was a reply to perl @ #8
Tongue,
The thing is both SWS and Pulse use the same company to do the sampling.
So one explanation why they get different results is in the sampling. Sometimes Pulse might hit an area where one candidate is strong and the other weak. The same thing can happen to SWS.
Another thing to consider is the “standard” size of a sample. When they do a larger sample they do it in increments of let’s say 300 and they distribute that to cover more areas or areas where they would not normally go.
A candidate can commission surveys. The intent is to help strategic planning. so a candidate can ask the pollster to go specific places where he wants to assess his strength/weakness.
A commissioned survey is for the candidate’s eyes only. But it is up to the candidate not the pollster to make the survey results public.
The quarterly Ulat ng Bayan of Pulse is not commissioned by any candidate. Their other surveys are. I think the same holds true for SWS.
Ulat ng Bayan or its SWS equivalent simply take the pulse of the public. That’s where they differ from comissioned surveys. I think the only thing a candidate can do when Pulse/SWS are doing an Ulat ng Bayan type survey is to commission private rider questions on specific issues of interest to him. He has no say on the size of the sample or where the sampling will be done.
Sa madaling salita, if you don’t know the what, when, how, and why of a specific survey it won’t be of much help spotting anything, unless you get a briefing from the pollsters themselves.
are those who conduct surveys paid by someone or are they doing this as a public service? pare pareho ba ang mga tanong nila? and how do they choose who to ask? kasi kung iba iba ang basis how can one judge the validity of their survey? it simply becomes an exercise in futility..
MB, I fully understand how these survey companies work. What I’m really saying is it all boils down to credibility. If you fail in making an accurate exit poll, which by any measure, should be as close to 100% accuracy as possible, then your methodology is seriously flawed if you get a reverse result in yours. That alone should guide future clients in considering hiring their services ever.
Media’s treatment of the results aggravate the situation. Not fully aware of the details of the polls, they create their own conclusions anyway.
Villar was able to raise P23 billion from the IPO of Vista Land. — Schumey
Holy shit! Then he must have more than a couple of billions sitting somewhere to serve as “contingency” funds to buy off more than a few officials.
23 billion pesos? That should easily represent a cool billion for every year he that he’s been in politics from which his yearly salary is probably less than what my maid here makes in a year.
No wonder he is proud to claim that he makes more than the Ayalas doing the same business.
I wouldn’t mind if he made that money fair and square and run for position. But in my book, he will remain suspect and a villain for as long as he refuses to answer the questions (ok, allegations) about how and why he used his position to make those billions as in the case of C5Taga project.
rose,
the answer to your question is both. Survey companies conduct paid surveys that are done to aid strategy and unpaid surveys that can be loosely described as public service. I say loosely described because the unpaid surveys demonstrate the capability and hence the credibility of a survey firm and that results in being paid to do targeted surveys.
Tongue,
in the case of the 2004 exit polls, SWS can’t really be blamed for it. Since you are fully conversant about the way survey companies work then you know that neither SWS nor Pulse actually go and do the data gathering. They hire another company to do that.
So SWS/Pulse prepare the questionnaire, another company does the data gathering and submits raw data to SWS/Pulse for the interpretation.
So three areas where a survey can go wrong:1. preparation of questions 2. data gathering 3. interpretation of results.
In the case of the exit polls in 2004, SWS blames the sudden thunderstorm that occurred that day. It may have affected the data gathering process or the projections based on the data gathered.
It was not as imple as that, MB.
It was found out later that the research arm, Trends (now TNS)was infiltrated by Ronnie Puno’s people who applied as researchers. So they knew the schedule of the interviews. That’s the time when Gloria Arroyo’s people would go to the area and do some gift-giving.
Since the interviewers had other agenda other than just finding out the sentiments of the people, the results became compromised.
I’m not so sure if SWS still work with Trends/TNS. I think they formed their own research group.
In the 2004 survey, SWS got it all wrong in Metro Manila. But I think they got it right in ARMM when they predicted that FPJ would win there.
The problem was GMA had the “Hello Garci” operations so the results got perverted.
All voters would be the victim of BUDOL-BODUL groups,the leasder was a selfmade billionaires,thru cunning gov’t paying a hefty 6 bilyones of Juan’s sweats.Kaya kung gusto ninyo pang dalhin ang ating bansa sa lalong pagdarahop sa kahirapan,iboto lamang ang taong magaling kumita sa salitang maka-mahirap,at tutulungan kayo para lalo kayong maghirap,dahil siya ay maka-mahirap.sumikwat isang kaban bigas,sa kaban ng bayan,isang dakot na bigas lamang ang ibabalik sa taong bayan madali nga maging bilyonario ang ganitong sistema ng negosyo,basta sa paraan walang tatalo sa kanya.walang patutunguhan ang bayan,kundi magiging baon sa utang at kahirapan kapag siya ang pinili natin maging pinuno ng pamahalaan.
manuel: thanks..kung ganoon pala ang surveys..tama ang nabasa ko sa isang paper (I forgot which one) take the survey results with a grain of salt…
Anna,
What is surprising is the waiving of the holding period. This is to protect the investors. Imagine if Vista Land folds up? The investors will be holding an empty bag because Villar had already taken the loot. What is puzzling is the connection of Villar with Fe Barin. Why am I puzzeld? Villar was able to secure a loan from the Bangko Sentral and was never paid. That’s the Norzagaray land grabbing case. Now the SEC waives the holding period. Just connect the dots and you’ll be as puzzled as I am.
schumey, Anna,
ang landgrabber sa kaso ng Norzagaray ay sila Vicente Puyat. Sila ang nagpatalsik ng mga Dumagat na may balidong titulo sa “inalienable” land na iyon.
Ang kaso ni Villar dito ay large scale estafa (swindle) dahil binili niya ang lupa ni Puyat na may pekeng titulo (na-isyuhan ng titulo nung panahon ng Hapon – 1944) na labag sa konstitusyon.
Isinanla ito ni Villar sa Bangko at inilipat ang pagkakautang sa isa pa niyang bangko habang sinimot niya ang pera saka ipinaubaya sa nagpautang ang bangkong walang pera bilang kabayaran.
Pera natin ang nayari ni Villar dito.
Villar and Noynoy keep trashing each other even before the campaign started. However, it’s evident that the two and other presidential candidates do not attack Erap that hard. Is it because they know Erap would not win or they simply have some respect for the man so much hated by the church and the elite?