Update: SWS’s December 09 survey also puts Aquino in the lead
With less than five months before the May 10, 2010 elections, Liberal Party presidential candidate Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino maintains his sizable lead even as three other contenders improved their numbers, Pulse Asia’s December 2009 survey showed.
Pulse Asia asked 2,000 respondents last Dec. 8 to 10, “Of the people in the list, whom would you vote for as president of the Philippines is elections were held today?” In the list were Aquino, Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party, Joseph Estrada of Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino, Gilbert Teodoro of Lakas-Kampi-CMD, Richard Gordon of Bagumbayan, and Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas.
Aquino got 45 percent, one per cent higher than his October 2009 score of 44 per cent; Villar, 23 per cent, four per cent higher than the 19 per cent that he got last October; Estrada , 19 per cent, an eight per cent increase from his previous 11 per cent.
Click here (Pulse Asia) for its complete December 2009 survey.
Pulse Asia said Villar and Estrada are statistically tied for second place owing to the survey’s margin of error.
Teodoro increased his numbers from two per cent last October to five percent. Gordon from 0.3 per cent to one per cent. Villanueva’s number didn’t move at one per cent.
LP’s Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas tops the vice presidential race with 58 per cent with NP’s Loren B. Legarda coming second with 43 per cent. Jejomar Binay is third with 14 per cent.
Pulse Asia said given the margin of error, Roxas and Legarda are are statistically tied for first place.
Jinggoy Estrada leads the senatorial race.
Pulse Asia said 14 of 80 senatorial aspirants have a statistical chance of making it to the Magic 12 with re-electionists having an advantage.
The topraters among senatorial candidates are Estrada (55.1%); Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. (52.7%); Miriam Defensor-Santiago (51.4%); Franklin M. Drilon (48.4%); Pia Cayetano (43.1%); Ralph Recto (43.1%); Juan Ponce Enrile (42.7%) Sergio Osmena III and Vicente Sotto (both with 40.2%); Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (31%); Teofisto TG Guingona III (28.6%); Jose “Joey” De Venecia III (24.3%); Senator Manuel “Lito” Lapid (23.1%), and Muntinlupa Representative Rozzano Rufino “Ruffy” Biazon (22.9%).
I am glad to see that Mar Roxas is topping the Vice Presidential slot. Mar Roxas — good enough even to be President of Pilipinas.
And I have a guess why NoyNoy’s numbers dropped, and it is because a few priests are now reminding their parishioners about NoyNoy’s authorship role of Reproductive Health bill.
As usual. . .no change. . .lol
After Noynoy has declared his candidacy, the Yellow Brigade immediately began to promote him. Kahit na ang ABS-CBN…pati ang pag-distribute ng relief goods noong “Ondoy” ginawang kampanya. Lahat ng Kapamaliya staff at talents nakasuot ng dilaw. Ang mga survey firms naman, karamihan bayaran iyan depende sa nag-commission. For example, the Makati Business Club came up with its own survey showing Noynoy was leading. Noon pa maka-yellow na ang MBC. This is not to say I’m against Noynoy. Okay siya sa akin. Masusubukan ang paninindigan niya sa HR Bill. Kung takot siya sa Simbahang Katolika, baka mag-withdraw siya sa Bill bago ang election. Isa pa, medyo hindi ko gusto ang mga nasa paligid niya. People around him belong to the Civil Society…a bunch of wolves hungry for power.
Budget gap approximately PHP300 Billion, over population, high level of unemployment, unabated graft and corruption…blah blah blah and yet people topping the senatorial list are mostly the same group of do nothing candidates. I’m afraid to look at the congressional level list, if any…Mga kababayan wake-up. kinabukasan natin at ng mga anak natin ang kapalit nito! kailangan natin sa senado at mababang congresso yung mga kandidatong makakatulong lutasin at naiintindihan ang problema ng bayan. Marami dito sa listahan ay napagbigyan na nuon, di lang isang termino, ala naman nagawa at madalas kumakampi pa sa mali.
If this is what you want, then don’t complain anymore. Mukhang tayo ata ang may problema at paulit-ulit di na nadala!
Mukhang tama si igan henry90…as usual…co change!
So far so good kay Noynoy. Pareng Pepito, hindi bumaba ang numbero ni Noynoy, tumaas ng 1.
Mahigpit ang labanan nina Mar and Loren. Sabi sa Pulse Asia website, Mar – 39% at Loren – 37%.
Bad trip lang ako sa result ng survey sa mga senators.
Pareng Mario, labanang politika yan kaya may mga demonyong naka paligid. Lahat sila nina Noynoy, Villar, Erap at Teodoro may nakapaligid na bwitre.
Correct na correct ka diyan Ob – sa lahat ng presidential candidates, may mga nakapaligid na mga bwitre, hindi sila isolated kay Noynoy lamang.
Sa tingin ko mag soar pa ang lamang ni Noynoy kapag todo kampanya na ang buong pamilya ni Ninoy. I believe his sisters are a big influence and they would not allow Noynoy to sully the image and reputation of their family.
The name to watch is Gibo’s. It would appear that he is inching his way up. Once there through manipulation, we can no
longer question if he pass the high election mark.
Noynoy’s sisters particularly Kris are factors in his good rating. But Kris should watch out not to over act. Baka kapag manalo si Noynoy ay sabihin ng mga tao na si Kris ang magpapatakbo ng gobyerno. Please take note that Kris has kept a lower profile these days. Siguro nahahalata niyang inis na ang mga ibang tao sa kanya.
The interpretation of Statistics.
From as high as 60 % now to 45 %. NO SANE STATISTICIAN will dare conclude that Noynoy solidified his lead !! On the contrary the trend is of steady decline.
The sympathy votes are now leaving the coop simply because the good Senator Noynoy has no remarkable achievement whatsoever.
Dick Gordon has more remarkable and outstanding achievements than the good Senator Noynoy.
romyman, it’s wrong to say from 60 per cent to 45 percent because the numbers you used were from different survey groups, using different formula.
The 60 per cent was Noynoy’s ratings in a SWS survey while while the 45 per cent was in a Pulse Asia survey. Pulse started last October where Noynoy got 44 per cent.
I am quoting directly from SWS-web site
22 December 2009
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BusinessWorld-SWS December 5-10, 2009 Pre-Election Survey: Aquino (46%), Villar (27%) and Estrada (16%) lead Presidential race; Roxas (43%) and Legarda (32%) lead VP race; Santiago, Revilla, and Jinggoy Estrada lead Senatorial race”
15 December 2009
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SWS November 4-8, 2009 Survey: Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar top the people’s “three best leaders to succeed PGMA in 2010”
..
Fifty-nine percent named Sen. Aquino and 45% named Senator Manny Villar
–end of quote–
I agree the questions posed on the two survey are different but the intent was the same and that is to gauge the popularity of potential candidates for president. The formula will be the same.
The slide has begun, will it taper off or nosedive even more? What are the factors contributing to the slide?
Malayo nga. . .ikaw na rin nagsabi. . .ibang questions ginamit. . .using that argument, e di bumaba din si Villar? Sa Nov na result na 59-45 at ngayong Dec na 45-27, in favor of Aquino, ano nangyari kay Villar? Tumaas?
I was hoping somebody will point-out the slide I am not disappointed.
I agree 100 percent the slide affected also Villar. Notice that Gibo is showing strong from decimal to single digit. Estrada is also picking-up steam.
Figures don’t lie however human interpretations are subject to biases and preferences.
Kulang pa sa sayaw at kanta kay Erap. . .kay Gibo, wag tipirin budget. . .nag kirmet din yan. . .baka panay kupit sa budget ni Putot kasi alam na rin na matatalo lang siya. . . .lol
Ang paghahanap ng hindi tiwaling candidato sa ano posisyion ay napakahirap, mas madali pang makakita ng isang karayom sa bundon ng dayami kaysa makakita ng isang di tiwaling kandidato upang malingkod ng tapat sa bayan.
Ano ba naman yan, di na natuto ang mga Pinoy, iboboto pa ba uli sin Estrada, Revilla, Lapid, etc., mas marami pang iba na higit na karapat dapat kesa sa kanila.. sana naman ay maging matalino na nag mga Pinoy.. at wag mahumaling sa mga artistang ito na wala namang nagawang malaki sa bayan… iboto nila dapat sina, Lim, Drilon, Miriam, Roco, at marami ppang ibang bago na karapat dapat… wag naman sanang maging tanaga this time ang karamihan ng mga Pinoy.
I’m in for Noynoy. There’s no other candidates who can bring our country to the world again.
Erap is a good leader when it comes to “MASA”, the problem only is that… he abused it. Now Eraop is already our history. We need a new, younger & a dynamic leader. Villar is a trojan horse of GMA, Gibo is a copy-cat of GMA. Villar and Gibo will never prosecute GMA for all his wrongdoings. Both Villar & Gibo are part of GMA mafia. We need a leader who can stand us & be proud again in the eyes of the world. Noynoy is not perfect but he’s the only credible we have right now. History will repeat itself if we will not unite again. Garci Part 2 will repeat again if we will not unite.
We should now learn from the lesson of the past.
May tililing daw si Mirriam kaya may nagpetition sa comelec na i-disqualify siya.
Sagot naman ni Mirriam mag-privelege speech siya sa pagbukas ng session sa senado para ibulgar o pangalanan ang isang dating member ng cabinet na nagnakaw ng bilyong piso sa kaban ng bayan.
Ang tanong, matuloy kaya ito? Ang isip ko while Mirriam is lambasting, his husband is working behind the scene, sana mali ako.
mukhang naghati ang Panay Island sa choice of VP..Capiz is for Mar and Antique for Loren (her grandmother is from Pandan…and for Senador nadisqualify ata ang favorite daughter ng Iloilo…
Sa survey naman ng mga senators, no. 1 si aling Brenda (Mirriam), sumunod si bong, erap jr., at parang malayo ang favourite ng karamihan dito sa blog na ito, si Adel Tamano. Marami talaga ang engot sa Pinas, paano iboboto pa nila si Bong, nakupo!
Tungkol kay brenda, maraming issues ang nakakalkal sa kanya, pati iyong suicide daw ng anak ay walang autopsy. Kung totoo, baka may itinatago. Wow, at ang mansion niya ay worth 53 million pesos daw.
Dapat na talaga na may freedom of information law sa Pinas. Kung epektibo na ito, madali ng malaman ang mga assets ng mga buwaya sa gobyerno. Iyong mga assets na nakalitaw at ang mga itinatago.
Okay si Adel Tamano…a good lawyer at Pogi. Pero nagkamali siya ng partido. Nasa UNO na siya tapos biglang lumipat sa NP. His credibility suffers under the alleged corrupt Manny Villar. Kung kay Noynoy siya, baka nasa top 12 siya.
SWS survey: Noynoy choice of 50% of voters
by Regina Bengco
Malaya
Liberal Party standard bearer Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III would be the choice of almost 50 percent of voters if elections were held today, the Dec. 5-10 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed.
The SWS 2010 pre-election survey was the first to ask 2,100 respondents who they would vote for if elections were held today. Among 11 listed candidates, SWS said 46.2 percent chose Aquino.
Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. had 27 percent, followed by former president Joseph Estrada with 16 percent, former defense secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. with 4.6 percent, Jesus is Lord leader Eduardo Villanueva with 1.1 percent, and Sen. Richard Gordon with 0.9 percent.
Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” Madrigal got 0.2 percent of votes, Olongapo City councilor John Carlos de los Reyes received 0.1 percent, and environmentalist Jesus Nicanor Perlas obtained 0.03 percent.
A previous survey conducted in November asked respondents who they think would best succeed President Arroyo, given a choice of three. This accounted for a total percentage exceeding 100 percent.
Among the vice presidential aspirants, 43.3 percent chose Sen. Manuel Roxas II.
He was followed by Sen. Loren Legarda (32 percent), Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (10.2 percent), former Optical Media Board chairman Eduardo Manzano (2.6 percent), former Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Bayani Fernando (1.8 percent), broadcaster Jose “Jay” Sonza (0.3 percent) and former Securities and Exchange chief Perfecto Yasay Jr. (0.1 percent). None of the respondents chose Dominador Chipeco Jr.
Deputy presidential spokesman Gary Olivar said Malacañang remains optimistic about the chances of Lakas-Kampi-CMD candidate Teodoro, adding that his ratings are still low because the people do not know him yet.
Olivar said Teodoro resisted the temptation to exploit his former position as defense chief and chairman of the National Disaster Coordinating Council for electioneering.
Teodoro, in a press statement, said he is unperturbed about placing a weak fourth in the surveys. He said the elections are four months away and a lot of things can still happen.
“Voting results and not poll surveys will determine the victors in next year’s presidential race,” he said.
In the same SWS survey, reelectionist Sen. Miriam Santiago led the senatorial race with 55 percent of votes.
Completing the Magic 12 are Sen. Ramon Bong Revilla Jr. (54 percent), Sen. Jinggoy Estrada (53 percent), Sen. Pilar Juliana Cayetano (48 percent), former senator Franklin Drilon (47 percent), former senator and planning secretary Ralph Recto (44 percent), former senator and Dangerous Drugs Board chair Vicente Sotto III (40 percent), Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (37 percent), Ilocos Norte Gov. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (32 percent), former senator Sergio Osmeña III (31 percent), Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto Guingona III (24 percent), and Sen. Manuel Lapid (23 percent).
SWS said within striking distance are Jose De Venecia III (21 percent), Muntinlupa Rep. Rozzano Rufino Biazon (20 percent), Sonia Roco (18 percent), and Gwendolyn Pimentel (17 percent).
I don’t believe in surveys anymore. How did the names of Revilla, Recto, Sotto and even Lapid appear in the survey?
very disappointing talaga results ng survey for senatoriables! kala ko ba nman natuto na mga botante… haay kawawang pinas!
kung sakaling masunod ang surveys… manalo si Noynoy at halos lahat ng senatong at tongressman ay maka-gloria… mukhang hindi tatagal si Noynoy sa presidency… delikado si Noynoy sa impeachment!
Aquino’s beatific image as the son of the famous couple Ninoy and Cory is turning out to be nothing but a farcical reductio ad absurdum that was crafted by his political operators soon after the death of his mother.