by Lito Banayo
Malaya
A highly reliable source informed this writer that over the weekend, Manuel Villar, presidential candidate of the Nacionalista Party, was able to seal a deal with incumbent vice-president, Noli de Castro, to seek re-election for another term, this time as the former’s running-mate.
For a while, Villar was having a difficult time getting a vice-presidential partner. He had banked on being able to convince his fellow senator, Francis Escudero, to agree to run with him as his vice-presidential candidate. But sometime in late August, Escudero gave short shrift to the possibility. He said that he could not “in conscience” join up with someone who, on the basis of what had been uncovered in the C-5 investigation in the Senate, does not represent “good governance.”
Villar then tried to get Sen. Pia Cayetano to agree to be his team-mate, but she thought better than to eschew sure re-election as senator (based on surveys) and risk the same for a one-on-one contest. Then, Cebuanos thought that their governor, Gwen Garcia, could be persuaded by Villar to run as his vice-president. There were talks about a Villar-Binay ticket, but the latter decided to cast his lot with Joseph Estrada. On Wednesday next week, unless another feng shui expert re-schedules it, the political marriage of Jojo of Makati and Erap of San Juan will be announced, to be rent asunder only by a Supreme Court decision, after Erap files his certificate of candidacy on or around November 30, and not before.
So Villar turned up the charm offensive on his good friend and dinner-club partner, the vice-president who failed to be Doña Gloria’s anointed successor. Noli had thought of retiring to private life after a twelve-year lucky streak in the field of politics. How many “charms” the billionaire real estate magnate offered the vice-president to consent being vice-presidential candidate once more, we will not be able to confirm beyond the level of rumor. Even the amount mentioned by our source seemed to me quite low, for someone who’s been there and done that for six long years, and would now do the same if re-elected.
So we have Erap-Jojo versus Manny-Noli, versus Noynoy-Mar. Gibo, the PaLaKa candidate for president, will likely have Ronnie Puno as team-mate, but nothing is really certain. Ronnie left urgently for the US for personal reasons the day after Ondoy hit the metropolis. One never knows how the PaLaKa tandem will eventually pan out.
Chiz Escudero is expected to make a political announcement on or right after his 40th birthday on October 10. Would Loren Legarda be his vice-president, as the Nationalist People’s Coalition prefers? That would be a Loren-Noli redux of their 2004 battle royale.
Is Noli de Castro’s acceptance of Villar’s offer merely a function of personal transaction, with personal friendship as sweet icing on the cake? Or is it part of a Doña Gloria script which would indicate to her political loyalists that Manny Villar, ostensibly opposition, is really her favorite among the crop of presidential wannabes? That Villar, by being “safe” and playing “safe,” never really ever critical of her governance, has finally earned the distinction of being Doña Gloria’s preferred?
After all, Gibo hardly ranks in the horse race, and is not likely to attract the money even of her closest cronies, who even now are investing in horses of the opposition. With his wilting under the pressure of Ondoy, Teodoro is likely to be further left behind in the race, and the Doña is not likely to spend private or public money on a political enterprise most likely to fail. Villar, on the other hand, does not need her money, only her Garci’s — living or virtual.
But then again, the best-laid plans of mice and men oft go awry. Let us see how this Manny-Noli operetta plays out.
***
Political observers were overwhelmed with the SWS survey conducted for some Makati businessmen on September 5 and 6 covering the Lingayen-Lucena corridor. This is the vote-rich cluster of provinces which covers Pangasinan in Region 1, plus all of Region 3, NCR and Region 4-A. The results, which were published in mid-September, were done right after Mar Roxas withdrew from the presidential race, and offered the mantle to Ninoy and Cory Aquino’s only son, Noynoy. It gave Noynoy 51 percent of the total vote preference, followed by Villar, Erap and Chiz, with 14, 13 and 12 points, respectively.
We then said it would be difficult for Noynoy to sustain the yawning lead (Early days or bandwagon? Malaya, 17 September 2009) over his rivals. A recently announced nationwide survey done by a new outfit, Stratpolls, Inc., reportedly owned by the Cabangon-Chua media group, and covering the period of September 17 to 24, showed that Noynoy’s numbers had gone down to 36 percent, still much higher than Villar’s 20 points. But as it came out in the cruel wake of Ondoy, hardly anybody noticed the yet hardly known survey firm’s findings.
Last Tuesday, I was given a rundown of a Davao City survey covering all its barangays. The city has some 900,000 voters. Recall that a week after the mega-Manila survey, Davao businessman and Aquino loyalist Chito Ayala, announced that he had a quick survey conducted in the city, which sustained the SWS mega-Manila findings, and gave Noynoy 53 percent of the voter preference at the time.
The Davao City survey I was shown had field research done from September 28 to October 3, and the results showed: Noynoy 34 percent, Chiz 26 percent, Erap 17 percent, Villar 8 percent, Gibo 5 percent, with 10 percent yet undecided. The survey was done at the instance of a local politician who has not yet committed to any presidential aspirant.
Davao City in previous elections acted the most similar to Mega-Manila voting patterns. In 1992, Miriam won in Regions 3, 4-A and NCR, although Ramos won overwhelmingly in his native Pangasinan. Davao gave Ramos victory over Miriam though. In 1998, Erap won commandingly in Mega-Manila, but not in JDV’s native province. Davao also voted for Erap convincingly. In 2004, FPJ won in Davao, as he did in NCR and Region 4-A, with an almost similar lead in Central Luzon, but for Gloria’s native Pampanga.
I would wager that if a survey were done today in the Lingayen-Lucena corridor, the Noynoy fever may have cooled down quite a bit likewise. SWS conducted its field survey, nationwide this time, from September 17 to 25, and it bears watching how the tallies would compare to its instant mega-Manila survey of September 5 and 6, where Noynoy polled three times more, at 51 percent, than his statistically-tied competition of Erap, Manny and Chiz. The results should be out by mid-October or earlier. By then, Pulse Asia should be doing its third-quarter Ulat ng Bayan field research. The results ought to be public come mid-November, some two weeks before the November 30 Comelec-imposed deadline for filing certificates of candidacy.
What political events shall happen between October 3 and October 17, when Pulse Asia begins its field work? Chiz shall have declared his presidential intent, as he promised to do so by the time he reaches 40. Erap shall have declared his determination to go for a second term, unmindful of constitutional impediment. Villar said that his Nacionalista Party (as if it had a collective mind, when everybody knows he owns the party) will declare his running-mate in the first week of November. We’re telling you it’s Noli as of today, unless commitments are not complied with or Noli loses heart.
Outside of other surveys, commissioned or not, the Pulse Asia data should be the final public survey results before the firing gun starts.
But there’s another rub.
Because the official campaign period begins only on February 9, 2010, impressions and perceptions held in mid-November (actually mid-October) may not necessarily hold by February. There will be a long hiatus in-between, during which period Villar cannot run his TV ads, as nobody else can. Erap’s Star Cinema-produced movie should have either clicked at the tills or bombed — the one with comedienne Ai-Ai de las Alas, and yes, the one where cameraman Fernando Estrada, drowned while bringing back his equipment aboard a Superferry vessel from Gen San to Zamboanga del Norte’s deadly deep. And the longest Christmas celebration in the world, despite Ondoy and Pepeng and whatever else, shall have intruded into the political consciousness of the nation.
It’s going to be back to the beginning come February 9, 2010, when the official campaign period unfolds, with commanding leads whittled down to even-steven chances for Noynoy, Chiz, Villar and Erap (assuming the Comelec and/or the Supreme Court had not by then decided on the constitutionality of his second coming). Shall Gibo still be limping along, and how far behind?
Let me repeat what I wrote on September 17 — “It’s early days. Nobody needs to blink. Not Villar with all his money. Not Escudero with all his derring-do. Not even Gibo, the newly-proclaimed standard bearer of the PaLaKa, who has eight months yet to improve a 0.2 percent per Pulse Asia’s reading of August, to 30 percent come May 10 next year, the minimum that I suspect will be required to make it as the next president of the Philippines.”
Yes, the magic 30 percent. Noynoy’s Davao results three weeks after his declaration places him four points above. Escudero is four points below. Villar has all the money in the world to try to catch up, with Noli as trophy in tow. Gibo has still time to up his numbers, memories of Ondoy receding along with its floodwaters, still waist-deep in Laguna de Bay’s peripheral towns, and GMA cooperating by becoming less visible, confined to her Pampanga congressional joust with Randy David. As for Erap, all eyes will be on his make-or-break battle before the bar of constitutional test.
This presidential campaign should prove exciting. A cliff hanger, all the way down the wire.
Pakieme pa si kabayad atat na atat naman. Heh!
How much na naman kaya, siguro this time mas dako dahil bilyunaryo si Money Villar. No respect for Kabayad, ibinebenta ang pwesto.
Just read from Tribune that Loren hopes Erap would pick her as VP, and that even Gibo sent feelers that he wants her. Five presidentiables are after her, she said, but coyly added that ‘entertaining’ them is a different matter. hehehe!
Iba talaga ang Loren-loren sinta.
Kung si Kabayad nga ang VP ni Money Villar, mas malinaw na hindi sila mga opposition.
BAkit hindi yata sumawsaw ang mga Arroyos sa cookie jar ni Money, gayong sa lahat ng pagkakaperahan ay nakasahod ang kanilang mga kamay sa tongpats? Hindi kaya natunugan ng mga Pidals ang c5 at taga ni Money, o magka partner lang sila duon?
“Is Noli de Castro’s acceptance of Villar’s offer merely a function of personal transaction, with personal friendship as sweet icing on the cake? Or is it part of a Doña Gloria script which would indicate to her political loyalists that Manny Villar, ostensibly opposition, is really her favorite among the crop of presidential wannabes? That Villar, by being “safe” and playing “safe,” never really ever critical of her governance, has finally earned the distinction of being Doña Gloria’s preferred?”
__
I tend to believe that it is part of Gloria’s script. Hindi tanga si Gloria to cast her future with the decimal point of Gibo. The bitch is safe with Villar who already said that he won’t prosecute Gloria and family.
Taga at Kabayad tandem ay gawa ng Malacanang. Comelec-Smartmatic ang kanilang secret weapon. Safe si Gloria kay Manny Taga Villar.
We are so much into who is who in this 2010 elections. Who is behind Noynoy? Hindi ba yan yung mga elite na nagtanggal kay Erap at ipinwesto si boobuwit? The same elite group who wants what they want and if not given to them, they will annoint their own at all times if they can! Now they are riding on the death of Cory to boost Noynoy’s candidacy. Never mind if they know that he was a “so-so” legislator. Someone who can not even pinpoint the official who was pocketing the “calamity fund”. This elite group must know that once Noynoy gets elected, they will have their cabinet positions back and get their way almost all the time. Ang gusto nilang pangulo ay yung kaya nilang diktahan! Kung tutuloy man si Chiz, di ba si Cojuangco din and padrino niya? Chiz already said that he does not have the money to run. Go figure who will fund his candidacy and what would be the “payment” for that? Cojuangco is the same person who benefitted from Cory’s presidency. Cohuangco has three horses running (Chiz, Gibo and Noynoy). If any one of these three will win, panalo pa rin siya. Only Erap and Villar are their own men. Ayaw ng karamihan kay Erap dahil napagbigyan na siya ng minsan and he blew it! Not so according to the “masa”. But according to the elite, tapos na si Erap.
Sa totoo lang wala kang itulak kabigin sa mga presidentiables. Instead of focusing on the what a leader can do, we look at the personalities and say “mabango” si Noynoy. “Tuta” si Gibo ni boobuwit. No wonder we are in the mess that we are in. Can’t we for once look at the capability of the leader?
I do not know Noli but the fact that he distanced himself lately from the boobuwit tells me that he must have seen that he will not win if he runs under the boobuwit. And he may still wnat to continue serving the public.
At the end of a president’s term, lahat ng mga tauhan niya ay mag-jump ship na to where they think they can have a chance to continue with their public service. Maraming magiging balimbing. I do not know Noli only because he was being linked to the Legacy case but nobody ever brought a case on him yet. In other words, another hearsay case as far as I know. I know that he had done a lot for the OFWs. He was also at one time leading in the surveys but now he is trailing because everyone thought that he was going to be the boobuwit’s annointed. The fact that his surveys were high may mean that the people know he can serve.
We have more that half of a year so see re-alignments. Friends become foes. Foes become friends. Welcome to politics!
Grabe naman pala itong si Villar.Ang daming niligawan puro basted.Matunog ang balita noon na Villar-Willie,pero binasted din yata siya ni Willie at ang sabi pa—WAWAME.
Parang kumpare ko pala itong si Villar ang “Playboy na walang Bata”–Si Imelda na lang kaya ang ligawan niya.
Sabagay kapag mag tandem si Manny at Noli baka matutuwa ang more than 4 million victims of typhoon Ondoy,baka mas maganda pa ang itatayo nilang bahay sa tabi ng relis ng tren at sa may C-5 kesa ang bahay kubo ni Gloria.
Cocoy, hindi mo pareho si Villar dahil ikaw ay hinahabol na playbol, si Villar ay walang naghahabol. hahaha!
WAWAME na naman kapag nanalo ang Villar-Kabayad team.
Sa bise ay hindi na magbabago ang aking boto kay Kuya Mar pero sa presidente ay dalawa lang ang aking pinagpipilian depende sa kanilang plata porma.
Kung kay Willie lang, kay kabayad na lang ako! I like Willie to do what he does best, to be a host of the Wowowee! I do not think the salary of a politician can equal the perks that he gets from being a host of this popular show, unless mag-tongpats siya ng mag-tongpats. Lagot na!
Kahit na sinong santo ang magiging presidente, if the accountability is loose, the power of the purse is lopsided towards that of the sitting president and almost all the apppoited positions are already filled up by the boobuwit’s cronies, I doubt if anyone of these presidentiables can be strong enough to navigate the ship that is full of holes and ready to sink into the middle of the ocean. It would be a miracle!
So, Villar is done with his shopping spree? And came home with the head of Noli?
Well, I think their gooses are cooked!
Villar is a loser in the end I believe,eh teka may naniniwala pa sa kanya.
We should remember watak watak ang elitista….
Villar-Noli,,, well they have something in common… ther anomalous transactions… birds with the same feathers plak plak plak together…
Kabayad Noli de Cash-tro is just like a bystander. He will expect again that the Presidency wil full into his Lap just like manna from heaven.
Kung papayag man si Noli na magiging Bise ni Villar ay para lang sagipin ang isang kaibigan sa isang kahihiyan. Kahihiyan dahil wala talagang gustong maging Bise nitong si Villar. Kay Noli naman, alam din niyang wala siyang pag-asa pa na maging Pangulo kaya na rin siguro papayag … if the price is right.
Tedanz,
Kung ginusto ni Noli ang maging pangulo ay pwedeng mangyari kung maaga siyang nagdesisyon. Ang tingin ko ay naduwag dahil hindi niya alam ang kanyang gagawin kung manalo. At least ay admit ni Noli na dehins siya pwede sa pinakamataas ng pwesto sa bansa, hanggang chuchuwa lang ang kaya niya.
Magalang pareho si Manny at si Noli sa pagtingin nila sa mga OFW. Pero ang gusto kong malaman sa kanila (sama na rin si Gibo at Noynoy) ano ang kanilang gagawin para mas dumami ang trabaho na naririto sa Pilipinas. Kung pareho pa rin ng patakbo ni Gloria, eh di ganoon iyon. Kung iba ang plano nila, gusto ko lang marinig.
Ang kailangang kailangan ay dumami ang trabaho na naririto sa Pilipinas.
Pepito, gusto ko na marinig sa bawat isa sa kanila kung ano ang programa nila sa creation of jobs sa Pinas at kung ano ang steps na kanilang gagawin for its realization. Panahon na para bumalik ang mga OFWs na napilitan lang magtrabaho sa ibang bansa dahil walang opportunity sa Pinas.
Korek ka, kung itutuloy lang nila si Gloria na puro lip service e di mabuti pa na kumuyakoy na lang ako kesa sa bumoto.
Walang tunay na malasakit si de Cashtro sa taong bayan dahil kung meron ay noon pa sana siya tumayo noong kailangan natin ang mangunguna upang mapatalsik si goyang. Wala siyang ginawa mulang mahalal na bise kundi magtago at kung saan siya magiging ligtas ay doon siya papanig. Ibig sabihin lamang na hindi niya kayang panindigan ang kanyang tungkulin at hindi niya kayang patunayang karapatdapat siya sa pagtitiwala ng mga bumoto sa kanya.
Ngayon, matapos niyang ipagyabang na kung bise din lamang uli ay hindi na siya kakandidato ay doon din pala ang bagsak niya. At sa ating pinagpipitagang kagalanggalang na Mr. MaC5 tumaga!
MPR,
Binayaran lang kasi ni Goyang si Kabayad Noli para kanyang bise, pero may kondisyon na hindi sya aangal kahit lahat ng pinoy ay mamatay dala ng kanyang kababuyan.
I want to share to all this comment of Tita Midz (Armida Siguion-Reyna) on her space in Tribune.
http://www.tribune.net.ph/commentary/20091009com7.html
Bobitz, this Tribune article should be posted in the other thread where the topic is Kris. Tunay na tunay talaga. That this same people who ousted Erap and put the midget in power are now pretending to be super clean.
Villar presently is “ngiting tuta” while De Cashtro has been “ngiting asong ulol”.
Once they win the presidency, both will be like Hyenas!
I’ve always liked Villar, but with all his spending, it would be hypocrital for all of us not think of him recouping ALL HIS LOSES courtesy of the people’s money if he wins.
Noynoy cannot win, and Erap will lose the constitutional battle. If Villar wins, they will get him for plunder for C5, and he will remain in jail like Trillanes. Yes the Glue will do to him what he did to Erap.
Nobody is looking out for the VP position. Noli will win, and his puppet masters will again rule the country.
atty sax, brilliant analysis. Wow!
Maiba nga tayo mga igan… Yong dalawang sundalo (Querubin and Lim) confirm na ba na kay Villar na sila? Sa dami ng aspirant bakit doon pa sila???
Si Lito Atienza nga pala… tatakbo ba syang senador? Sabi ng friend ko sa grupo daw ni Noynoy??
Lim will not be with Villar. I’m not sure about Querubin.
On Oct. 25, the Magdalo will have its national meeting and they will decide who they will support for president.
As the Supremo of Magdalo, it is expected that Lim would be in the ticket of the presidential candidate the group will support.
I think the choice is between Chiz and Noynoy. I would say leaning towards Chiz.
Whether it is with Chiz or Noynoy, si Cojuangco pa rin ang panalo. The same man who enriched himself during Cory’s time. Kung si Noynoy naman, yung mga madre, pari,si Kris, mga yellow society (the same elite who installed the boobuwit) will prevail. Wala talaga tayong mapagpipiliang matino. Kung ano mang presidentiable ang kaalyado ng mga Magdalo, let us just repect their decisions and realize that these men already gave so much for the country. Let us judge them NOT by their affiliations but by themselves. They can always rebel again and again if the installed president does not perform. The key is, they should be elected to a position so they can continue with their passion to serve the people. If the voters do not wish to vote for any of the presidentiables picked by the Magdalos, so be it. I myself do not have any preference for any of the presidentiables. Puro sila may lamat. But I guess I am a perfectionist. The people will decide come 2010. It is a minority president who will win again so Ellenville will again be very busy even after 2010. We will always have someone to pick on!
If all the Magdalos can not fit in one party, again it is understandable. It does not mean they are not united. Some parties only want a few of them on their line up. The bottomline is they should be elected to an office to be able to serve.
Sa article ni Manong Ernie Maceda sinabi niya na sa ticket nila Erap tatakbo si Gen. Danny Lim.
Oct. 9, 2009-
“UNO to announce soon. The United Opposition (UNO), a political coalition of Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) and PDP-Laban, is set to announce its candidates for president, vice president and senators on Wednesday, Oct. 14, to held at an urban poor area in Tondo, Manila.
Among those being considered for senators are: Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada, Sen. Miriam Santiago, Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., Rep. Teddy Boy Locsin, lawyer Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III, Gen. Danny Lim (Ret.), ABS-CBN broadcaster Edu Manzano, ZTE/NBN whistle-blower Joey de Venecia and Mary Grace Poe.”
Luzviminda, Erap has been announcing names of people he wants to be with him. But it does not necessarily mean that that person would want to be with him.
Remember his list included Adel Tamano, Serge Osmena. etc.
Hayaan mo siya kung dalhin niya si Lim. Nobody naman can stop Erap to put names in his ticket. What is important is the party affiliation of the candidate when he files his certificate of candidacy.
I’m quite sure too that Grace Poe will not be in Erap’s party. I don’t think Grace will run for any elective position. What I know is she is supporting Chiz Escudero.
Chiz was the spokesman of FPJ in 2004 elections. Susan Roces endorsed Chiz in 2007.
Ellen,
Gen. Danny Lim doesn’t have enough money for the campaign, so kailangan niya ng partidong masasandalan. Of course andito naman tayo na handang tumulong para sa kanyang kandidatura, tulad ng ginawa natin kay Trillanes. Sana lang ay sa tamang partido siya mapasama na makakatulong na madala siya hanggang sa Senado.
Palagay ko ay tentative pa si Chiz Escudero na tumakbong Presidente. Kailangan din nilang magput-up ng kumpletong listahan ng mga kandidato na malakas ang laban. Dahil kung mahinang mga kandidato ay mahihirapang mananalo. Ang mga kandidatong Senador ay malaki ang maitutulong sa pagkapanalo ng isang Presidente. Pero malalaman natin sa announcement ni Chiz after his birthday.
Ellen,
About Grace Poe, kung hindi man ngayong eleksyon ay maaring in the future ay sumabak siya sa politika. May utak naman siya at alam kong ma puso din para sa taong bayan, dahil palaki ni Manang Susan.
Kandidato ko sina Gen. Danny Lim at Grace Poe, kahit saan party sila sumapi. Gusto ko ang anak ni Susan Roces, napakinggan ko na siyang magsalita, edukada, sibilisado… besides sabi nga ni Luz e palaki ni Manang Susan.
I read that Grace Poe is in Chiz ticket. I believe that if ever she’d run it would be with Chiz. Naging barkada na yata because of Chiz role in their life on and after Da King. Kung hindi naman siya tatakbo ngayon baka sakali sa ibang panahon, bata pa naman siya at magpraktis muna.