It’s a Noynoy tsunami.
If elections were held today, in a five-cornered presidential contest, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, will win hands down with 50 per cent of the votes, according to a survey conducted by the Social Weather Station last Sept. 5 and 6 in the vote-rich province of Pangasinan and the regions of Metro Manila, Central Luzon and the Calabarzon.
Click below for the survey:
The survey, done after Sen. Mar Roxas withdrew from the presidential race and before Aquino declared his presidential bid showed Aquino getting 50 percent of the votes followed by Sen. Manuel Villar with 14 per cent, former President Estrada with 13 per cent, Sen. Francis Escudero with 12 per cent and Vice President Noli de Castro with 7 per cent.
If the contest were minus Escudero, Aquino would get 55 per cent; Villar, 17 per cent; Estrada, 15 per cent, and De Castro, 8 per cent. Two percent said, “None” and one percent said “Don’t know.”
If it were a three-cornered fight, Aquino would get 63 per cent; Villar 21 per cent; and De Castro 9 per cent. Two per cent volunteered the name of Estrada. Thre percent said “None” and undecided, one per cent.
As to running mate to Aquino, the team up with Roxas got the highest vote with 51 per cent; Aquino-Escudero with 49 per cent; Aquino- (Loren) Legarda with 46 per cent; Aquino- (Francis) Pangilinan with 43 per cent and Aquino- (Jinggoy) Estrada with 33 per cent.
The survey was conducted among 1,200 respondents in the Luzon regions which consists of 40 per cent of the country’s voting population. Margin of error of plus and minus three per cent.
Pangasinan belongs to Region One (Ilocos Region).
The National Capital Region consists of the cities of Caloocan, Las Piñas, Makati, Malabon,Mandaluyong, Manila, Marikina, Muntinlupa, Navotas, Parañaque, Pasay, Pasig, Pateros,Quezon City, San Juan, Taguig City, and Valenzuela.
Central Luzon (Region III) consists San fernando City, Angeles City, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan,Nueva Ecija, Olongapo City, Pampanga,Tarlac, and Zambales.
Calabarzon (Reg. IV-A) consists of Calamba City, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Lucena City, Quezon, and Rizal.
Wow! Let us see as the days go by if Noynoy lead will hold up. Talaga naman, the people are voting by emotions and not by merit.
Hindi pa nangangampanya si Noynoy niyan hah.
People look at Noynoy as the “moral” one against Gloria, the”immoral.” People are fed up with corruption and abuse of power under Arroyo.
Is Noynoy the person to lead a reformist government? Let us see in the coming days. I’m willing to give him a chance to prove his worth.
Running after the much publicized ill gotten wealth of the Marcoses should not be on top of Noynoy’s agenda. It should be the recovery of the obvious stolen wealth of the arroyo’s who think they own the treasury of the Philippines.
Mas malaki ang kinurakot at kukurakutin pa ng pamilya ito hanggang sa huling sandali ng nakaw na termino ni gloria. Masisibang ‘yan. Ginawang palabigasan ang kaban ng bayan!
KEY ISSUES On Noynoy:
1)High Integrity Plus High Performance?
2)Kamag-Anak Incorporated:Can He Say NO To
D’ Boss and Peping/Tinting?
3)Hacienda Luisita:Can he implement a real agrarian reform program?
The NON-ISSUES On NOYNOY:
1) Physical Appearances(ABE LINCOLN)
2)Impressive Resumes:MARCOS-Bar topnotcher,war hero/world-class dictator
3)Masa Appeal:”Let the people decide, not the elites and the bourgeois.” Joseph Estrada,convicted plunderer
Spot on, Magno.
Focus first on the Pidal loot. Do not give them chance to move all (or what’s left) of it offshore. Or else he would not serve the interest of people who will vote for him. Marcos is his personal agenda, that has to give way.
Talaga naman ang Pinoy, ayaw ng magkaroon ng tunay na pagbabago! Balik muli tayo sa ilalim ng mga naghaharing uri at mga elitista kasama na ang simbahan at media.
Kung buhay lamang si Supremo Andres Bonifacio at Jose Rizal marahil ay magsisi sa sakripisyong ginawa nila para sa bayan.
Bayan kailan ba tayo gigising???
I am wary about the sample population’s composition. It has 28% Region III (Kapampangan). That is not reflective of the Phil. population.
It has 98% voters who were of age in 2007. How many new voters will there be in 2010? That is a big chunk, not just 2%.
In the economic strata, 78% are from the D class, with 44% of that class owning lots. Bakit ilan ba ang lot owners sa Phil.?
In a survey in the 40s, made through the telephone, it was predicted that Landon would trounce FDR. The result was the reverse, 61% voted for FDR. Kasi, ilan lang ba ang may phone sa Tate noong 40s?
Reminds me of a college buddy. In a drinking spree, he said patay na patay ang babae sa kanya. One move, and he had her; he was just biding his time. I was also close to the girl, platonically. She told me, she hated the very sight of him.
Even if the survey is accurate, maaga pa. Remember the surveys that said Hillary owned the Democratic nomination?
Pareng Andres,
Pakilinaw naman kung ano ang ibig sabihin ng elitista at makamasa, naguguluhan na kasi ako sa dalawang salitang yan e. Sa mga kasalukuyang nagpahayag ng kandidatura, sino sa kanila ang hindi elitista?
Salamat.
Villar is a perfect story of ‘rags to riches’. Nagtitinda ng suwahe sa may Pritil market. Well kung di mo alam kong ano ang suwahe elitista ka nga.
Taong di ko iboboto sa coming Presidential election.
1. Abogado – Si Marcos ang perfect example
2. Economist – Si Gloria perfect example.
3. Artista – Si Erap perfect example
4. Ex-General- Si Tabako perfect example.
Gusto ko naman businessman na may business sense.
Ellen the figures are right but your conclusion is wrong. The figure is for LUZON Voters. So the correct conclusion is ‘IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE HELD ONLY IN LUZON’, then Noynoy is likely to get at least 50 percent of the votes plus/minus the margin of error.
Taken overall(the entire Philippines) the SWS survey says that it is still Villar leading the pack as of Aug 25, 2009.
If this survey is accurate and can be sustained until the last few weeks before the 2010 elections. I think the other “opposition” presidentiables might as well support him to make sure Gloria’s annointed one can’t win from cheating. That of course is a big IF.
Romyman, you must be referring to this survey by Pulse Asia:
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/08/25/09/villar-jumps-1st-pulse-asia-survey
It was conducted during the period July 28 to Aug. 10.
The regions surveyed comprise 40 percent of the voters. Fifty percent of 40 percent yields 20 percent.
So the proper conclusion is that twenty percent of the voters will vote for Noynoy. Looks more like a ripple to me than a tsunami.
Nonoy’s showing, the first time his name ever came up in the presidential race, is impressive. No one among the presidential contenders ever scored that high- 50%.
Take a look at it vis-a-vis the score of others in the race: about half of what he got. Villar, Estrada and Escudero are statistically tied.
Sayang, hindi nila isinama si Gilbert Teodoro.
Why does Villar think that he is the opposition candidate? During the last election for president, it was only in his city in NCR that GMA won. Although a small city, it was the last to finish counting its vote. If Villar can cheat for another person, what more for himself? It was also Villar who single-handedly weakened the democratic process by ramming the impeachment complaint to the Senate. I shall never forgive him for that.
Let the administration and Villar spend all the money they can for this election. Hopefully the money will trickle down to the people but do not vote for him. A vote for Villar is a vote for GMA and her family of thieves.
Abangan ang Trojan horse Villar. A deal made in Malacanang. Kung sakaling siya’y manalo, siguradong hinay-hinay ang kurakotan imbestigastion kay Gloria at Jose Pidal Mafia.
What is the meaning of ‘List 1’, ‘List 2’, ‘List 3’ in the powerpoint?
Ka Enchong,
Ang mga elitistang tinutukoy ko ay ang mga Zobel de Ayala, Lopez ng ABS, Prieto ng Inquirer, at iba pa.
Ang karamihan sa mga nakapaligid kay Noynoy ay parte ng mga civil society na ang akala mo ay sila lang ang may alam, may karapatan, at malinis. Puros sariling interes din naman sila! Sila rin ang may kasalanan kung bakit niyurakan ang karapatan ng taumbayan noong 2001!
he has to prove he is worth it. i havent seen anything yet. he cant ride on sentiment until may. oh, he has to set up an army of volunteers in mindanao. that’s where the battle on election day and the days after will be.
Ang laki ng problema ni Gloria and the presidentiables ng opposition pag lumaban kay Noynoy. Better luck next time kayo.
List 1 has Escudero, List 2 does not include Escudero, List 3 excludes Escudero and Erap (2 percent still chose him).
It looks like they are trying various scenarios, to test the acceptability. The other lists have various tandems, including Aquino-Estrada, and Aquino-Pangilinan.
The question here is: Who commissioned the survey? I heard it’s the MBC, a pro-Aquino group. The scope is just limited to the supposed bailiwick of Aquino, not even the entirety of Luzon. The reason is they just want to create an artificial bandwagon.
SWS and Pulse Asia has a bad reputation of rigging surveys to suit the desired results of the commissioners just like what they did during the 2004 elections for Gloria. Surveys cost millions and it’s a fee these survey firms can’t refuse, the catch, release what they wanted for public consumption.
I’ll wait after the tsunami. Even the ‘surveyors’ are riding with the tsunami.
O heto, nagtatawag na ng unity si Erap kay Noynoy, baka na feel niya ang tsunami. Kung feel niya na magtoptop siya, eh di magisa sya. Yaay, walang pikunan dyan sa mga makaerap.
Hindi tatanggapin ni Noynoy ang hamon ni Roxas maging presidente kung walang magba-bankroll ng kampanya. Isa-isa nang nababalatan kung sinu-sino ang nasa likod niya. Malinaw na ang Makati Business Club na nagsimula nang gumastos dito sa survey na ito dahil hindi naman nila ilalabas ang survey na patok si Noynoy kung hindi nila bata ito.
Nakasakay na ba kayo sa Merry-Go-Round? Yung sasakay ka para masaya ka pero niloko mo lang ang sarili mo dahil paulit-ulit lang ang nangyari dahil pagkatapos ng lahat babalik ka lang pala sa simula?
Tongue, dehins pa ako nakasakay at baka dehins na ako sumakay kasi hindi ako masaya. Masama pa ang loob ko sa pang-iipit ng LP kay kuya Mar na tumabi, hehehehe.
You bet, Andres, di komo taga Forbes Park sila, matino na sila. On the contrary, puro kurakot nga sila kaya sila yumaman. Example itong pamilyang Macapalgal. Wealth is not a yardstick of morality. Basahin ninyo Biblia. Sabi nga ni Jesus Christ sa Sermon on the Mount niya, “Blessed are the poor.” Wala siyang sinabing blessed iyong mga naging milyonaryo lalo na galing sa kaban ng bansa!!! 😛
Sinabi mo pa Tongue! Besides ang ganda ng timing ng survey, the very same day Noynoy announced his candidacy. Siempre nasa lahat ng dyaryo, tv at radyo. Siempre bukang bibig ang “noynoy aquino”. Let us wait for the dust to settle. Maalibasbasan muna ng konti yung may mga “orgasmic” experiences…heh,heh,heh.
Ngayon pa lang lumabas na naman si tabako warning the boobuwit to not attempt a “failure of elections”. Mukhang may balak pa yatang pigilan ang victory ni Noynoy!
Bilib na bilib kayo sa survey lalo na ng mga survey machines sa Pilipinas? On the other hand, hindi ako magtataka sa rating ni Noynoy presently. Sariwa pa sa mga pilipino ang yellow fever ng yumao niyang ina. Kung baga mainit pa. Tignan natin in the months to come.
I’m not impressed as a matter of fact. Napapanganga na lang ako at naaawa sa mga niloloko nila!
Nakakamatay ang Tsunami sa totoo lang. Kahit magaling lumangoy puedeng ilubog ng waves at malunod. Iyong mga paagos sa tsunaming ito, kwidaw! Baka magsisi kayo!
Ang masagwa, gawa-gawa ni Mar Roxas, tapos sasabihin “Divine Providence” daw! What a blasphemy!
Kawawang bansa! Pihado isa na naman sakit ng ulo ang aabot sa mga pilipino!
@Ellen, I stand corrected. However still your conclusion is based on the wrong premise. This is the abs-cbnnews.com link you are referring to. http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/09/13/09/50-prefer-noynoy-vote-rich-luzon-areas-sws-survey
The headline says it all. It is a skewed sample based only in Luzon. So to apply this to all of the Philippines is downright misleading !!
Noynoy tsunami ang tawag nila kapag ang kausap mo ay mga supporter ni Noynoy. Pero sa mga hindi bulag na katulad natin,ehem…, ang tawag jan ay NONO tsunami.
Ang resulta ng SWS survey ay depende sa nagbayad ng survey kung gusto nila ang resulta ay favor sa bata nila para magawa nila ang trending o kung gusto nila ang resulta ay ang katotohanan.
Ginawa na ng SWS ang trending na favor kay pandak noong 2004 election at umamin sila sa kabalastugan nila. Last month lang ay gumawa ng dalawang SWS surveys for two presidential aspirants with the same methodology, i.e.,the same list of presidentiables, on a one vote, one choice basis, with the same number of respondents, conducted on the same dates, the two surveys on the same issue was done. Pero ang rusulta ay magkaiba depende sa kung sino ang nagbayad ng survey.
http://www.tribune.net.ph/20090825/headlines/20090825hed2.html
Clearly, this is a NONO tsunami.
I’m not sold on Aquino yet but I recognize that he appeals to the yearning of Filipinos for a clean and honest government. That’s the extreme effect of the curse of Gloria Arroyo.
She has made our government dysfunctional. Imagine you have a deputy national security adviser who is a threat to the security of citizens. And she can’t do anything about it.
Her sins to the Filipino nation are endless .
Is Noynoy capable of doing something in putting back the country in the right track? Hindi lang yung tatayo siya and not steal. He should do something to make the system work.
I’m disappointed that his priority agenda is recovery of marcos ill-gotten wealth and not to stop Arroyo from further plundering the country’s wealth.
The choice among presidentiables is limited. But it’s really up to us the people to make our leaders accountable.
Tignan na lang natin ang mga nag commission ng survey, ang MBC or Makati Business Club at isinagawa nila agad pagkatapos ng libing ni Cory. Ang mga nagpo promote kay Noynoy ay ABS-CBN na halos kalahati araw-araw ng balita ay panay tungkol kay Noynoy, tila telenovela na ang dating! Ang Inquirer naman, dahil ang Mile Long property ay utang na loob din kay Cory, ganun na lang ang pag papogi kay Noynoy kahit na hindi talaga pogi!
Ang Makati Business Club na siyang nagpatalsik kay Erap dahil akala nila biased si Erap sa mga tiga-Binondo, ay sila ring nasa likod ni Noynoy. Noong panahon na nakaupo si GMA, naglagay at nagkaroon ng mga bagong cronies si Evil Bitch at ang mga miyembro ng MBC ay na echa pwera kaya naghahanap sila ng kandidato.
At ito na si Noynoy. Sana naman isipin nila na ang kandidato nila ay hindi uubra.
Panay sariling interes ang nanaig, lalo na sa mga nakapaligid kay Noynoy.
Bayan gumising at imulat ang mga mata at wag padadala sa telenovela ng yellow fever at tsunami!
If we want change, we should someone younger. And choose someone who is not backed by people with self interest like the civil society.
Chiz Escudero for President!!!
Ellen,
Is it true that they call Aquino’s supporters/troops as the Yellow Army?
Holy mackerel — I certainly don’t want to be no part of no yellow army!
I ain’t joinin’ no yellow army, man! Dat bad, man, friggin bad!
No to yellow army!!!
I’m sorry but I think Erap is doing it all wrong. He should first be neutral when he asks the opposition forces to join him and unite. He has no moral ground to stand on now. Why so?
First of all, he has told one and all he is a probable candidate, a competitor to the others. The proper person to try to unite the opposition forces is a non-candidate person who is respected by most, if not all, of the parties.
Secondly, Erap has already been president. Why would the other opposition forces make way for him ..with all that tattered image and past political baggage he carries?
Thirdly, he does not have the monopoly of talent and skills and winnability to win the presidency. He is now not the strongest competitor. The latest regional SWS Luzon survey proves this. Noynoy got the highest rating of 50%, Estrada 13%. That’s as wide a gap as the Grand Canyon. A survey of Visayas and Mindanao would not be that much different, I guess.
Erap should already start realizing that he is no longer the biggest factor to consider in the game. And should now cease all this threatening stance of “unite or I will run”.
He should shrug off that one-ton chip on this shoulder and stop trying to get even with those who ejected him from office..and truly be a contributing rather than a restraining factor.
He should bury all this elite rich vs poor chatter. It’s childish behavior, shallow and divisive. Doesn’t help unite at all.
And now Villar has joins this demagoguery. He is also using the same Erap strategy of pitting the rich against the poor. Segmentizing and alienating classes of people.
Once you run for the presidency, you run to be president of all classes of people. So don’t use the poor to win your political battles. It’s unfortunate that you’re starting off on the wrong foot, Mr. Villar.
correction…”And now Villar joins this demagoguery..”
Lalo na ako! Ayoko din sumama sa Yellow Army dahil matagal na akong gumaling sa hepatitis.
Malayo pa ang hangalan este, halalan (pala) sa 2010. Kung mabibigo tayo sa ating inaasam na kandidato sino man ‘yun, sandali na rin lang ang 2016 kung kailan hinog na si AT4 upang maging kandidato sa pagka-presidente.
Doon ako tataya ng husto! Buhos suporta, todo todo!
Sonny Boy, huwag kang magbabago!
It was Reli German who I think coined the slogan for Erap… “Erap para sa Mahirap.”
The slogan was brilliant. It clicked. Erap won. But Erap took this to extremes. And started putting walls around him and his so-called rich critics while supporting his rich cronies. And he reaped the whirlwinds.
Same thing will happen to Villar.
Here’s Villar’s latest ala Erap remarks taken from today’s Inquirer issue:
Villar described the arrogance of the rich assuming the role of the country’s moral guardians.
“Who are they to say who is good and who is evil? They are trying to mislead us because this has always been a fight between the poor and the rich,”.
Ahh…Mr. Villar, so this is a fight between the poor and You?
When people talk about the fight being between the forces of good vs. evil, they are generally referring to Gloria’s forces.
So why so defensive, Mr. Villar? Are you then part of the Gloria forces?
Oops, your slip is showing.
the only unbiased poll will be on election day, provided no tsunami cheating.
Using the poor to get elected, that’s how the trapos operate. Projecting himself as identified with the poor in its struggle against the rich. Artista talaga.
Oust Gloria. No to Trapos!
saxnviolins, thank you.
I need to remind that that the majority of the population of luzon is concentrated near metro-manila(majority are in NCR,Central Luzon and Calabarzon), at mas kalat ang population ng visayas at mindanao because they have less population.
🙂
I think we are a weak country because of lack of balance in our land and also because traitors are in our own government….
From Z:
I’m a former government employee having served from (1974-1996), one can say from Marcos to FVR. Public service is a noble vocation for me. and proud to say I’ve served the people very well. Now I can see that to be in the public service is not as it used to be. From the lowly barangay captain to the highest position in the land seem to be all on the take. what went wrong?
I have been a Corysta since the day I went toTimes St. in a day in August 1983 to view and pay my respects to the bruised body of Ninoy Aquino till today with the candidacy of Noynoy Aquino. Just like them I love my country and I want to see that the good values in government and public service be brought back again.
These values were corrupted when the pork barrel was institutionalized. There was no pork barrel during Cory’s time. It began initially as countrywide development fund under FVR by JDV. Maybe in preparation for the constitutional change they pursued later. From a mere Php 3M to what is now I’m not sure about Php 70M. Noon wala pa ang mga senators na pork barrel. From then on it was downhill I think, naging maraming magnanakaw. Who will now give up this scourge of corruption? If Lacson doesn’t use his pork barrel why can’t others give this up?
Ms. Ellen, paano ba maaalis ang pork barrel? Wala naman yan noon?
I wonder why the MBC and the elites did not support Roxas while he’s in their league. Dahil ba kay Ate Koring na maka-masa ang dating o hindi nila kayang baliin si Kuya Mar kaya sadya nilang hinintay ang pagyao ni Mrs. Aquino para tantiyahin kung pwede ang anak?
Maganda yang anggulo mo chi. Ang gulo! Hindi ikaw ha, sila!
Chi it is probably more of, the MBC may not be able to dictate on Mar because he is his own man. On the contrary, kaya nilang paikutin si Noynoy. Kung si Kris nga eh panay na ang dikta kay Noynoy ngayon eh di lalo na kung nakaupo na siya!
I think so, too, PSB. Kasi ay magaling kundi man mas magaling sa kanila si Mar when it comes to business applications and theories. MBC would have a very little room to maneuver their businesses with Mar as president, yun ay kung talagang paglilingkod sa bayan ang nasa puso ni Mar. Sayang talaga!
Let us see if Mar will really want to be Noynoy’s vice prez.
Sabi ng staff ko, mahirap daw mangarap ng dilat ang mga mata. May katwiran di ba?
Unggoy pala talaga itong si Villar. Sinong may sabing itong labanan nila ng mga katulad niyang unggoy ay a fight between good and evil? Sinabi na nga at alam ng lahat na ito na naman ang eleksyon na walang choice ang mga pilipino kundi between two evils at iboboto na lang iyong akala nilang lesser evil. Kaso pare-pareho ang degree ng pagka-evil, kaya hilong talilong ang lahat!
Kawawang bansa!
Maghintay na lang tayo ng real Macoy sa 2016. Meanwhile, bantayan na huwag matupad ang pangarap ni Gloria Kulimbat na mapermanente sa Malacanang! Best ipakulong ang hihid na ganid na iyan!
Exciting discussions, still limited blogging from where I stand. Europe sucks!