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Situation alarming, says US think tank

AN American think tank finds the political situation in the Philippines “alarming” and expects it to worsen if Gloria Arroyo continues to hold on to power.

In a roundtable assessment of the situation in Southeast Asia organized by BrooksBowerAsia held in Washington D.C. yesterday, Ernie Z. Bower said if he were to advise Arroyo, he would tell her that at this point, “she has to take care of her legacy and how she will be remembered in history,” a source who attended the meeting said.

Bower, former president of the US-Asean Business Council, is a partner of BrooksBowerAsia, a top advisory firm for multinational companies in the United States.

The source, who asked not to be named, said the US is watching closely the Philippines and Thailand. Bower’s assessment, the source said, is that Thailand has a stabilizing element in the Thai monarchy.

“The assessment on the Philippines that I got was that the situation in Manila is much more volatile. They feel that Arroyo has nowhere to go. She is finished but they expect her to dig in. That’s why they are alarmed because things could get bloody,” the source said.

Bowers’ “alarming” assessment is a departure from his July 2005 reading of the Philippines when the “Hello Garci” controversy was just beginning. Apparently sympathetic to the Arroyo administration, Bowers then said the Philippines “risks scaring off foreign investors, not just American investors, if it continues to question its elections after the fact.”

“For the near term, it’s fair to say following the constitutional process should be the top priority in Philippine competitiveness,” Bower said then.

The source said the problem of a viable alternative to Arroyo was also raised during the discussion. He said the name of Sen. Mar Roxas was mentioned.

Last March 3, Arroyo lifted her week-old declaration of the state of national emergency following a visit by Christopher Hill, assistant secretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs in the US State Department.

Published inMalaya

35 Comments

  1. Anino Anino

    “The source said the problem of a viable alternative to Arroyo was also raised during the discussion. He said the name of Sen. Mar Roxas was mentioned.”
    ===========================================================

    Out of 80 million Pinoys, the sons and daughters of past presidents are the only group of people qualified to run this country?

    Sen. Mar Roxas is one of those who advocated for trade liberalization aka “Globalization”.

    Globalization means exploiting slave labor. For every employment gain in China another individual in Europe or US loses it. And who gains from all of this? The select few.

    While we welcome Call Centers here, we must not forget that these are “shallow” jobs. These are non-permanent, instant jobs unlike industrial manufacturing-based employments. Not to mention the biological stress these workers are subject to since they are forced to render job during “abnormal” working hours.

    If Mar Roxas is installed as the next president then we must expect nothing but continued exploitation of Slave Labor and degradation of our natural resources.

    WE NEED SOMEONE LIKE Argentine President Néstor Kirchner TO LEAD US ONWARDS.

    http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2005/3217arg_life_after_imf.html

  2. ystakei ystakei

    Glad to hear what the Americans are now saying about the Midget, who is being advised undoubtedly to flatter Bush by promising now to provide him with the training ground for US to be deployed to Iraq with the reduction, if not total removal, of US bases in Japan.

    Amazingly, I find it incredible that Filipinos did not find newsworthy the visit of the governor of Okinawa last year and not connect such visit with the above plan, and making guinea pigs of Filipinos, especially the Moslems in Mindanao, on whom new US weapons are suspiciously being tested for their potency like the helicopters with precision guided equipments that were used in the Balikatan and found out to be faulty after one or two of them crashed near Cebu, and then corrected before being used on the Iraqis.

    Two members of our church in fact died in such plane crashes at the beginning of the Iraqi war and up until now, the Pentagon has not given their families a more valid reason than that they did not die in vain!

    Over here, we have expressed our displeasure with the US bases through a national plebiscite, and there is pressure for our Prime Minister to quit. He has heeded the call and promised to quit by September on condition that he will leave his seat with not much problem for his successor to tackle.

    I feel sorry for Filipinos that they cannot even make such kind of decision for their own good, especially with such brainwashing that without the US, they are helpless, something that I definitely disagree, not that I am anti-US, but to say that is blasphemy and a denial of the teaching that God is fair and just, and that He loves us all.

    So, who says that Filipinos cannot remove the Midget without the help of Uncle Sam? Give them time, the trust and confidence that I know they have, and they can be strong enough to remove a liar and thief from her usurped position especially when Filipinos are known worldwide to be good at making homemade weapons, even guns to do a battle of a tooth for tooth, an eye for an eye. Ever heard of “Paltik”? It’s made in the Philippines.

    I should know Filipinos are not a hopeless lot even without US patronage because of the Filipino in me!

    This is not sedition. It is a call for sanity and propriety, even a call for the upholding of the law. The criminal at large should be arrested now, and sent to the gallows with the fat husband, et al.

    On the other hand, how do you fight this head of the Philippine Mafia supported by bigtime Philippine gangsters operating as general of the AFP and PNP, and jueteng lords like the one in Cebu included in a list posted in the Internet?

    As for the Midget being irreplaceable, what a big shit like the one the gay witness must have released! How can a criminal be indispensible and irreplaceable? Ang laking tupak!

  3. E-mail from Dorian Santiago:

    Gloria Arroyo has time and again without shame invoked God’s will as the primary reason why she is still the (sitting) President of the Philippines.

    But isn’t it true that the voice of the people is the voice of God? The people has spoken! The latest Pulse Asia survey overwhelmingly declares that majority of Filipinos do not trust Gloria anymore. Poor Gloria, she couldn’t take a hint.

    Gloria argues that the Presidency is not a popularity contest. I agree 100%. But the Presidency is all about TRUST!!!

    Before I could not understand the statement “Power corrupts.” Thank you Gloria for making me comprehend what this statement means.

    Dorian Santiago
    Tondo, Manila

  4. E-mail from Alice:

    Why is Gloria after the head of Gringo Honasan. It should be the other way around. It should be they should go after the head of Gloria Arroyo. Have you ever heard of a criminal as bad as Gloria Arroyo? The Mafia Organization is like child’s play compared to the crime committed by Gloria and her “Chain of Command” or “Chain Gang” I bet you if Gloria Arroyo resigns all these destabilization will disappear and you will see progress in the Philippines. That Bastard son-of-a-bitch does not understand and who said that a PH.d has any common sense. I have the feeling that if those Bishops will get-rid of Gloria God will thank them for a job well done.

    Alice B.

  5. goldenlion goldenlion

    It’s a welcome news that US think tank has realized that gloria is a burden to the country. Though it’s late as almost all Filipino are giving her up since last year. Mar Roxas to replace her……..wait a moment!!! Sorry guys, next topic please. The most immediate thing to do now is remove gloria and her supporters out of malacanang, dissolve COMELEC (for God’s sake), expelled all gloria’s allies in congress and let the cleaned congress call for snap election. I suggest all the generals involved in the election fraud (those who were mentioned in the “hello garci tape” must be removed from the current position, likewise the PNP be abolished and bring to court all policemen who have committed crimes against the rallyists. Even member of the ISAF who connived with cheating should be tried. Do not forget the lords of gloria…..the jueteng lord, the gambling lord, the business lord, and other lords representing satan. Now who said no one is to replaced gloria. Ano kayo hilo? Nek-nek nyo!!!

  6. Mike Mike

    Mar Roxas? 1st lady Korina? Hmmmmm…..

  7. peterpan peterpan

    Ellen,

    With your permission, am re-posting my comment in DJB’s blog http://www.philippinecommentary.com re “Ex-Army commander Lim to face court martial, says Esperon”
    http://news.inq7.net/breaking/index.php?index=1&story_id=69831

    Dean,

    The court martial of Lim should be a good watch.

    Based on Gloria’s proclamation of the SOE, the government unequivocally pronounced that there was a coup d’état conspiracy, plot between Lim and NPA-CPP elements to overthrow the government; the charge of whether the act is rebellion or insubordination makes it irrelevant now… Esperon’s formal recommendation for a court martial means that the government is already prepared, paperwork and all to proceed with the court martial without delay; what is relevant today is that under articles of war, the government will technically NOT need a lot of time to conclude the court martical. In other words, Lim’s court martial could be between 30 and 60 days at most.

    If they cannot do this during this time, then the government is not serious; either that or they have no concrete evidence to back up their charges. If the charge is act of insubordination, it should make it very easy for both government and accused to debate the issue because government’s case is clear cut in an act of military insubordination.

    I’m interested in Lim’s case because it should be a test case… he can even call retired generals as his witnesses, etc which will inevitably open a can of worms. Besides, even if government has upper hand in a charge involving an act of insubordination, it will be the word of Senga against Lim.

  8. peterpan peterpan

    If government is serious indeed:

    1. the Office of JAG AFP should convene a court martial very soon.

    2. we can safely assume that since/because government has publicly declared that certain officers committed an act of mutiny, military prosecutors are therefore prepared to ask for the DEATH penalty which is the punishment meted on proven mutineers under the Articles of War.

    But since this government is NOT serious at all and may be considered amateurish at best in handling our military institution, we can only expect a monkey trial of the “accused” officers who are far more professional than Gloria and her government could ever be. Remember, UNTIL TODAY, this STUPID government has not concluded its case against the OAKWOOD so called “mutineers”.

    Technically those OAKWOOD so called mutineers committed rebellion and under rebellion and attempted a violent coup d’état for which they should face military execution but because Gloria and her dumb, coward GOVERNMENT know they have NO MORAL leg to stand on, they cannot do anything.

    I say to our brave officers and men (but not to those conniving, collaborating, immoral Gloria generals who have forfeited their right to time-honored military courage and honor):

    KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK. You have the moral and physical courage of your convictions. You will inevitably defeat this illegitimate, immoral, corrupt government.

  9. peterpan peterpan

    Re Defence of the accused military officers and men:

    The accused must be defended by a lawyer not only of irreproachable legal repute but also by one who has an excellent knowledge of military history and culture.

    An excellent knowledge of military history and culture will play a great role in maintaining professionalism in what I expect would be a Gloria & Esperon monkey trials of our professional, honorable and courageous officers and men.

    Tactially speaking, a PROPER court martial will enable the accused officers to bring their counter accusations/charges against this government to light for the whole world to see.

  10. peterpan peterpan

    Reposting hereunder:

    Ex-Army commander Lim to face court martial, says Esperon” says Inquirer report…

    The court martial of Lim should be a good watch.

    Based on Gloria’s proclamation of the SOE, the government unequivocally pronounced that there was a coup d’état conspiracy, plot between Lim and NPA-CPP elements to overthrow the government; the charge of whether the act is rebellion or insubordination makes it irrelevant now… Esperon’s formal recommendation for a court martial means that the government is already prepared, paperwork and all to proceed with the court martial without delay; what is relevant today is that under articles of war, the government will technically NOT need a lot of time to conclude the court martical. In other words, Lim’s court martial could be between 30 and 60 days at most.

    If they cannot do this during this time, then the government is not serious; either that or they have no concrete evidence to back up their charges. If the charge is act of insubordination, it should make it very easy for both government and accused to debate the issue because government’s case is clear cut in an act of military insubordination.

    I’m interested in Lim’s case because it should be a test case… he can even call retired generals as his witnesses, etc which will inevitably open a can of worms. Besides, even if government has upper hand in a charge involving an act of insubordination, it will be the word of Senga against Lim.

  11. juanito dela cruz juanito dela cruz

    nagtatanong lang po ako. kung ang suot ni sec dinky kaya ay yung t shirt na blue na sinusuot ng street sweepers ni gloria, habang namamasyal sila, huhulihin rin kaya siya sa baywalk? sec dinky, sa makati po kayo maglakad, di po bawal, si mayor atienza na po yata ang may ari ng maynila.

    tyl

  12. juanito dela cruz juanito dela cruz

    “Kalsada natin, alagaan natin. programang pangkalokohan ni Gma”

  13. anna de brux anna de brux

    Based on what we’ve heard and read so far (and based also on many accusatory declarations made by both Gloria and military spokesman against Danny Lim in public), the act committed by BGen Lim could only be qualified as an act of Insubordination. Besides, HE DID NOT LEAVE MILITARY HQS to make good his alleged MUTINY.

    Caveat: Technically, if BGen Lim refuses to apologize to his direct superior and to his Commander In Chief, it is appropriate that he should be tried by a Court Martial and depending on other supporting charges against him, court martial may conclude that he should be immediately dishonorably discharged and/or forfeit all military pensions.

    Unless there are strong physical evidences to support government/AFP case against him, BGen Lim cannot be charged with MUTINY based on Articles of War. Act of MUTINY involves 3 or more officers who invoke implicitly a THREAT of violence against a superior officer.

    A mutiny CANNOT be committed by only ONE person. This was why I had earlier on posed several questions on the physical content and the word exchange during the “meeting” between Senga and Lim. I also said we must ascertain that Lim was accompanied by equally threatening officers or men to make the charge of mutiny stick.

    The case of mutiny, as in other cases of purely military offences, can be pretty clear cut under Articles of War.

    On Esperon’s or his subaltern’s declaration that Lim will be charged with FAILING TO STOP MUTINY – that’s stupid. They must prove that a mutiny was committed by an Army division, brigade, battalion or a Scout Ranger unit UNDER Lim’s direct command. AND I DON’T BELIEVE there was mutiny committed by any SCOUT RANGERS otherwise we would have seen them and heard them given this government’s penchant for publicly declaring every unusual bit of military movement or alleged “restiveness”.

  14. anna de brux anna de brux

    If I were Lim, I would call ex CSAFP/DND Chief Angie Reyes to testify on the aspects of MUTINY and coup d’état and if his lawyer were extremely bold, he could ask Sen Biazon, Volt Gazmin and even FVR to come to the witness stand … hehehe!

    Seriously, Lim’ lawyer must have the courage to call Angie Reyes to the stand; he should find something in military jurisprudence (worldwide if necessary) to force Reyes to get on that witness stand because I suspect Reyes will basically REFUSE – heheheh!.

  15. Emilio Emilio

    Katatanggap ko lang ang mga sumusunod sa txt:

    MESSAGE: “From concerned Casino Filipino employees. FG Mike Arroyo uses 5 players who win 20M / night, 3 times a week in different branches. They are given 2M in chips in exchange for checks which Pagcor Chief Ephraim Genuino does not encash. Walang puhunan, siguradong panalo. Mukhang masyadong apurado si FG sa pagkamal ng pera. Swapang at ganid talaga, tunay na baboy!” –

    Natanggap rin ba ninyo ang txt msg na ito?

    Nagmamadali ang mga kumag sa pagkamal ng limpak na limpak na salapi!

  16. Mike Mike

    Hi Emilio, kung tutuo man ang text message na natanggap mo. Iisa lang ang ibig sabihin niyan, alam ni FG na malapit lapit na sila mawala sa puder at naniniguro lang siya na di sila sa kangkungan pupulutin kung nagkataon. Kung baga naghahanda lang ng pabaon para may pang gastos sila ni Vicky Toh este ni GMA pala sa kanilang exile. Yan ay kung tutuo nga ang nilalaman ng message na natanggap mo.

  17. anna de brux anna de brux

    Ellen,

    In Britain where capital punishment is now outlawed, UK military law has NOT done away with the DEATH penalty for MUTINEERS. Same is true in the French military. If Lim is found guilty of MUTINY, technically under the Articles of War, he should be meted the DEATH penalty.

    But from all accounts, the AFP and by extension, Gloria and her government, HAVE absolutely poor, very poor and wobbly, wobbly case against BrigGeneral Danilo Lim.

  18. anna de brux anna de brux

    Capital of Repression
    The Statement –

    “The Black & White Movement denounces the paranoid and heavy-handed treatment of citizens in the City of Manila, including the arrest of Enteng Romano and Dinky Soliman for daring to cross Roxas Boulevard at a Ped Xing. Apparently, Baywalk is only for the privileged few. Manila is the capital of repression”.

    That text, sent out to media within minutes of the arrest of Enteng and Dinky perfectly described the scene as it was. Last night’s experience brought a whole new meaning to the lyric “namamasyal sa Luneta”. So much for the hospitality of the City of Manila.

    The Story – posted by Helga at 8:26 PM

  19. jinxies jinxies

    20 March 2006

    It takes an american think tank months to change their heart about GMA, last year iba sinabi nila ngayon naman, ang sabi nila that GMA has to leave a legacy were people will remember her, tsktsktsk, mr. bower is right, the leprechaun has already left something that people will remember, IT ALRIGHT TO LIE CHEAT AND STEAL, and PROMISES ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN, that’s the legacy that the leprechaun will leave when whe is kicked out of malacanang.

    They filed mutiny against gen lim, kawawa naman, isn’t gen lim said that gen senga knows that he is not for part of the mutiny. why is gen. esperon, et al were given jucy positions, while gen gudani et al were punished when they are only telling the truth??? iba na talaga ngayon, pakapalan na ng mukha.

    Tubgkol kay fatso mike a, emilio did you know that prior to the self-exiled of the fatso and prior to july 2005, a number of helicopter from the presidential airlift went somewhere along manila hotel or nearby, to airlift a lot of personal stuff belonging to the first kurakot family??? and sabi nga, e baka naghahanda ng lumikas, kay lang sobra ang glue na ginamit e, hehehehehehehe….. natatakot na sila.

    kaya nga ang dapat magka snap election na.

    jinx

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