In the Political Security Situationer posted here on Nov. 28,2005, there was a marginal note on GMA’s options to be discussed in a separate briefing. Following is the exit plan. This was reported earlier in The Daily Tribune.)
DETAILED EXIT PLAN OF GMA
SCENARIO X:DISENGAGEMENT
1. As supported by the “temperature” (XYZ) of 10 November 2005 and the evolving developments on socio-economic and political fronts compounded by world environment, the eye of the storm is expected to unfold by last week of December and develop into a perfect storm by middle of January 2006 the earliest, or at the latest early weeks of February 2006.
2. During the October mapping-up meeting with Code One, it was agreed that in order to pursue the engagement, the following conditions must be in place per the above timeline. In this regard, monitoring shall be continued to flash-out any indications of deviations – any response to this deviation shall be cleared by the CO and the group.2.1 Establish “safety nets” within the military and security of business sectors and the bureaucracy (executive, legislative and judiciary) that will ensure friendly environment for Code One during the “day after.”
2.2 Host government agreed and prepared to shelter Code One during the period of “actualization” of the first part of the agreed “package of settlement” with the New Order (refer to separate executive report 11.05-05) making sure that the controlling Order is faithful to the provisions of the package.
2.3 Share jurisdiction over available resources, here and abroad, to continue until the New Order manifested and actualized the 3 elements committed to Code One. Thereafter, control shall be transferred to the NO’s anointed hand (to be jointly agreed by the CO and NO. For this purpose, the second meeting between the concerned parties and hopefully, the final one is set on 16 December).
2.4 Sam consent to the “end-state” of the disengagement is secured. Its operational term is submitted by CO/NO to the Embassy to assure Sam that any “bridging scenario” will not jeopardize his anti-terrorist initiatives involving covering Manila and the region (i.e. response basing system).
2.5 Elements (identified by CO as may rock the “disengagement” and the “day after set-up”, both in the party and opposition camps) shall have been marginalized or eliminated (Plan Clean Up).3. The “push and pull” operation shall be sharpened to allow the CO to calibrate the situation and allow the disengagement plan to work:
· Mindanao escalation of atrocities shall be continued to refocus the attention of the restive AFP and PNP members from destabilization works, as well as defuse public attention to the impact of the convergence of events.
· Maintain, if not deepen, cha-cha effort to keep FR and his group at bay and allow disengagement plan to work without interruptions from them. JV shall be apprised of the situation on need basis.
· Prices of basics (petroleum products, water, power) shall be minimized (strategy two) market intervention to project favorable foreign exchange, manage fund releases to LGUs to maintain support and dissuade climate of bankruptcy (prioritize new recruits, and manage public deficit) – all to delay the convergence of events.
· Promote divisions within the church, academe,business, congress, local government, executive, civil society and media to assuage the storm – any gains from these operations will give CO a longer lease of time to maximize gains from disengagement plan.
· Complete contracts and major fund raising measures.4. JEE and FM factors shall be nurtured to support the CPR and allow friendly group to access their “resources” here and abroad. There is a need, however, to review the EdA plan on the matter in the light of his divided loyalty and own agenda.
5. Depending on the emerging NO, the elements of FR and JV must be continuously monitored and checked. Their attempts to misrepresent CO to Sam have been affecting the disengagement timetable.
6. The role of the FGM shall be ascertained pursuant to the instruction of the CO and in light of the concerns expressed by the plan cooperators during the October Meeting, including the Embassy report of 30 October 2005.
7. A strategic media plan shall be continuously updated to ensure its responsiveness to the Plan. Reorganization in strategic and tactical position in government. (OP included) shall be slowly implemented to complement the Plan).Legend:
CO – Code One (GMA)
NO – New Order
CPR – Calibrated Preemptive Response
FR – Former President Ramos
JV – Speaker Jose de Venecia
SAM – US
EdA – Sen. Edgardo Angara
JEE – President Joseph Estrada
FM – Late President Marcos
FGM – First Gentleman Mike Arroyo
As planned…
pakana na naman ng arrovo boys yan… remember.. noong mag deklara ng di tatakbo bilang presidente si glue macapal arrovo… di ba biglang tumahimik at pinagbigyan syang tapusin ang kanyang ninakaw na pwesto… tapos ito na naman sya… exit plan… para paniwalain na naman tayo na aalis na siya… di dapat siyang tigilan… hanggang di sya bumababa……
Tocayo ngayon lang tayo nagkasabay dito…..
Nililito tayo una aaprub daw Con Com for no election in 2007
tapos me insurance pa sila graceful exit
tama ka Tocayo lets sit back relax and enjoy the movie
Nice fairy tale for adults. Young adults.
Ellen,
Who wrote this? Spook Joe Calimlim?
Rather convenient way of murking the waters, ain’t it?
Or perhaps, Angie Reyes? Reminds me of Angie’s presentation during an AFP Command Conference when he was called by then CSAFP General J Nazareno from his post as SouthCom Cdr and asked to assess the situation (If you remember, fight was raging on in the South and it was during Reyes’ 3 month term as Cdr in the South that the situtation turned for the worst; that 3-month term enabled Angie, who is basically an intel production expert to achieve the CSAFP post!).
At that command conference, Angie presented lots of scenarios typical of an AIM student which promptly got the ire of Nazareno, a hard-fighting veteran of the South, who right then and there asked his field generals if they were willing to fight – each general said “To the last man, Sir”. Nazareno replied, “It seems everyone here is ready to go to battle and die to the last man, only the South Com Commander is not!”
That was worse than a slap on Angie’s face and never forgave his classmate for the affront!
Ellen,
This particular situationer may be indeed genuine. Anyway, Malacanang always drafts situationers. Part and parcel of the NSA job and that of the political adviser to the chief executive.
It would be stupid of the current occupant in Malacanang not to consider an exit plan. All leaders of a government in crises must always have such plans and they do! Even FVR had such plans tucked away some place when he was president.
These situationers always get updated and when the occupant is gone, they are burnt.
THE PROPOSAL OR RECOMMENDATION OF THE
CON COM IS A BULLSHIT !!!
NO TO CHA CHA, IF THE SAME PERSON
OR PEOPLE SPECIALLY IF THE PARLIAMENT
WILL HAVE A “MAJORITY” OF GMA-ALLIES
WHO DOESN’T DECIDE FOR THE PEOPLE THEY
REPRESENT BUT HAVE BEEN PLAYING THE ROLE
OF GMA’S LAWYER !!!
FOOLING US AGAIN AND AGAIN !!!
LET US UNITE AND DON’T ALLOW THIS
Jhun,
Join Captain Faeldon…
People, you saw how the CIDG treated Gen. Abat Et Al. If you think that was nasty, you aint seen nothing yet! Remember Al Ghozi? Yeah… well his warden will be appointed as CIDG Chief. Yes. This is the same guy who was also the PNP-ATO Chief implicated to the killing of Lilia Diaz! Not to forget… The Anti Terror Bill is also being passed. So watch out everyone. No senior citzen, retired general, junior officer, media man, lawyer, politician, activist… Let’s welcome Al Ghozi’s warden!
Anna, the political security situationer was prepared by the office of the National Security Council headed by National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales.
It looks like GMA is creating several options: resignation, leave of absence, national government of solidarity, creeping governance and revolt within.
I sense a touch of the last one “revolt within” last week with that reported “quashing of a coup.” They concoct everything. Whether the people will buy it is another thing.
Looks like a good plan to me! They should carry it out. Once again it is quite self-serving with no regard to the people’s welfare.
5. karl wrote on December 17th, 2005 at 2:48 am
Read about an exit plan supposedly released by Bert Gonzales
All plans have contingency multiple choices
if all else fails there is always DARNA
but to us FAILURE IS ALWAYS AN OPTION
HOUSTON WE HAVE A PERRENIAL PROBLEM
Huwag naman sana maulit yung nagyari nong santaon pagkalipas ng pasko
TSUNAMI
Tanong ko lang. Kung ako si GMA, bakit ako gagawa ng exit plan? Oo nga, galit sa akin tao, pero mukhang hindi naman babaliktad ang military. Hati ang middle class at mga institution. So mahirap gumalaw against me.
Why not just ride it out?
Or may alam ba si GMA na hindi natin alam?
I do hope not Karl. We are already suffering too much. When I saw General Abat being arrested, I can’t help but exclaim with the words of Jose Rizal “Where are the youth?”
Should not one of you idealistic youth be in the spot where Abat is? Or have you forgotten or lack the courage to put life to all those idealism? Sayang! Sayang!
Mr Ronquillo
When I attended a youth meeting in DLSU Bro Armin told me I am disqulified because i am 34
If you know what I have been doing
writing letters to columnists blogging all over talking to my dad bout the issues
I feel i am doing enough as a mid 30 adult
If you want me to oraganize something
just say so I have been a student forum president during my MBA days I have contacts with the son of Ram soldiers etc
contact with one of the Hyatt ten who is no longer w the group
in my current address Tahanan village I talk to Rod reyes former press sec of Erap
Sec Factoran I know him because I was a suitor of his eldest daughter
There is a big wiretapping controversy ongoing in the USA. Read this commentary about Pres. Bush (with GMA in mind)::
QUOTE FROM KEVIN DRUM (in Washington Monthly just this morning):
“This is against the law. I have put references to the relevant statute below the fold; the brief version is: the law forbids warrantless surveillance of US citizens, and it provides procedures to be followed in emergencies that do not leave enough time for federal agents to get a warrant. If the NY Times report is correct, the government did not follow these procedures. It therefore acted illegally.
Bush’s order is arguably unconstitutional as well: it seems to violate the fourth amendment, and it certainly violates the requirement (Article II, sec. 3) that the President “shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.”
I am normally extremely wary of talking about impeachment. I think that impeachment is a trauma for the country, and that it should only be considered in extreme cases. Moreover, I think that the fact that Clinton was impeached raises the bar as far as impeaching Bush: two traumas in a row is really not good for the country, and even though my reluctance to go through a second impeachment benefits the very Republicans who needlessly inflicted the first on us, I don’t care. It’s bad for the country, and that matters most.
But I have a high bar, not a nonexistent one. And for a President to order violations of the law meets my criteria for impeachment. This is exactly what got Nixon in trouble: he ordered his subordinates to obstruct justice. To the extent that the two cases differ, the differences make what Bush did worse: after all, it’s not as though warrants are hard to get, or the law makes no provision for emergencies. Bush could have followed the law had he wanted to. He chose to set it aside.”
GMA and Bush are really kindred souls.
Thanks Rizalist!Merry X mas!
DJB
December 17th, 2005 07:48 25The big wiretapping controversy in the US has a lot to say about GLORIAGATE, lemme tell ya!
Karl
December 17th, 2005 09:27 2613. Karl wrote on December 17th, 2005 at 7:27 am
Another random thought
CNN reporters keep on asking GWB about his evesdropping /anti espionage policy
is the garci issue slowly creeping to the CNN and Uncle Sam
………………………………….
Pleade do tell DJB
Karl
December 17th, 2005 09:37 27wrong spelling na nama ako I meant please
DJB
I am intersted if our very own RP has an impact to US interests
another note…
Re: anti torture law being passed around the globe
why won’t we have this eventulally or maybe sooner than the anti terror law
BFR taga paranaque din po pala kayo
pasensya na lpo ahat ng pumapansin sa akin pinapansin ko din
magandang araw at maligayang pasko….
………………………………………………..
From Bernardo Ronquillo of Parañaque: “Ping Lacson comes off as too engrossed with himself and ‘mayabang.’ The most foolish statement I heard was that of Lacson boasting that the Fil-Chinese community is backing him with funds while it has not given to the campaign of FPJ. He said that the Fil-Chinese community’s generosity is not transferable to anybody, not even to Panday.
Bernardo Ronquillo of Parañaque who says: “It warms my heart seeing all those young congressmen crying when 158 representatives voted down their vision of a better Philippines. Their cries of “wala na bang pipirma?” and their agonized plea “can you feel our pain?”, were truly gut-wrenching. But not to worry because this experience will make them stronger.
been late being involved with miss ellen’s blog
good thing there are archives
……………………………………………………
October 30, 2005 at 11:32 pm
FVR, Enriquez, Abat
Last Friday, former AFP Chief of Staff Fortunato Abat and former Budget Secretary Salvador Enriquez held a press conference at the Café Roma in Manila Hotel. The two are the primemovers of the Christian Nationalist Union which calls for the ouster of Gloria Arroyo and the setting up of a new government to be run by a council.
In past interviews, Abat had been quoted as advocating the establishment of a junta.
Last Friday, Abat denied ever having advocated for a junta.
Enriquez , on the other hand, used a new term for the alternative they were offering:constitutional protective option.
The day before, Inquirer came out with a story on the U.S. Embassy report linking former President Ramos, former National Security Adviser Jose Almonte,Abat and Enriquez to a plot to oust Arroyo.
Abat denied working with Ramos saying that the last time they talked was in 2001 during Edsa II. Enriquez answer was more intriguing: “I do not know that there is such a plan.” So, could there be a plan he doesn’t know?
What was surprising was Abat’s criticism of protest actions against Arroyo. He said “when rallies are dispersed, they convey defeat. They are symbols of defeat. They strengthen GMA.”
Enriquez, made a revealing remark: “Had GMA fell earlier ( when there is no ready alternative yet) who would benefit?
Those remarks reveal the closeness of their position with FVR who has also shunned joining rallies and who said that he supports GMA because “there is no alternative.”
Abat and Enriquez said they had just come from Washington D.C. where they met officials (they decline to reveal the identities of people they met) who told them that House Speaker Jose de Venecia had also been there lobbying for support for his Cha-Cha.
Talking with Abat and Enriquez strengthens my suspicion that they are part of FVR’s network. They shake GMA to compel her to depend on FVR. But it seems they have met their match in GMA who is as wily and as unprincipled as their principal.
Medyo nalipo po ako sa nabasa ko ……
1. bfronquillo Says:
December 17th, 2005 at 6:37 am
I do hope not Karl. We are already suffering too much. When I saw General Abat being arrested, I can’t help but exclaim with the words of Jose Rizal “Where are the youth?”
Should not one of you idealistic youth be in the spot where Abat is? Or have you forgotten or lack the courage to put life to all those idealism? Sayang! Sayang!
1. bfronquillo Says:
November 1st, 2005 at 7:19 am
Dear Ellen,
PLEASE PARDON ME, but someone is being presumptuous again just because they succeeded in unseating two President by means of EDSA 1 & 2 and completely ignored the millions of people who disagreed with them at EDSA 3.
Just because the people are keeping silent, the group of Cory, FVR, the Hyatt 10 and their elite civil society retinue think that they can put one over the people again. Never again. If they call on the people to oust Gloria, they will not come. You are not one of them. They will not listen and follow you. Once is enough, twice is too much, thrice is a poison that will kill the people. We would rather bite the bullet than have you people rule us again.
Minsan sa tingin ko 2loy tama tong sinabi ni RG Cruz
…………………………………………………..
RG : the opposition i think smelle defeat already so they are giving this everything they have. problem is they are wasting their resources becaus etheir energies are misdirected. thats the problem with the absence of a rallying point: they dont have a leader who will not only unite them, but also give them direction
I don’t agree with RG. It’s smacks of lack of principles.Just because you don’t win it doesn’t mean you are wrong and you should join the scoundrels. Standing up for what you believe is true is not a waste of resources.
You fight for what you believe is true , right, and honorable. We have been taught not to lie, cheat and steal. That is right. Gloria Arroyo lied, cheated and stole. Why would we stop opposing that?
Turning a blind eye to wrongdoing is muting your principles. What kind of life is that?
Totally agree with Ellen!
We MUST NOT turn a blind eye to any wrongdoing by any member of the government.
While we are at it, I believe that officers and men in the military in the likes of Faeldon MUST BE congratulated, encouraged and HELPED!
Hey Anna, I’m ready to JOIN Capt Faeldon.
But where is he ? PEACE
Ms.Ellen,
It’s positive GMA and FG are mulling an exit plan. Mabuti na ang handa kaysa mahuling nasa baba ang pantalon. Sa ganitong scenario, it would be better for us to be prepared too. We have to admit that those opposing GMA are very much dis-united. No outstanding leader, if there is, maybe he/she is just too hesitant to come forward out of deicadeza. Those visible possible leaders are too eager to push themselves. SACRIFICE is the key word to achieve unity among oppositors to GMA. Nobody seems to entertain the idea to sacrifice in favor of a persona who has the credibility, charisma, outstanding leadersship qualities. Perhaps we could help. For starters, we can submit names in any blog site and ask bloggers to comment and vote for that possible leaders. In my case, I submit the names, Oscar Orbos, Rex Robles of RAM, Ping Lacson, Cong. Locsin of Makati, Cong. Roilo Golez,Richard Gordon, Sen. Lim. Meron pa diyan.Let’s help, Gloria must go whether she likes it or not. let us help. In Ms. Hontiveros’ STRICTLY POLITICS tv show, Rex Robles hummed and partly sang “A TIME FOR US”.
A Time For Us, Someday There’l be, A New World…. These lines tell a lot, so meaningful.
Con artist lang iyang ng mga taong umakyat lang sa Malacanang at ayaw na bumaba, simpre katulong ni Gloria sina FVR, JDV at alipores na sipsip at gahaman sa pera at kapangyarihan. Di ba si Lucifer ay magaling magkukunwari.. tulad ni Gloria Arroyo. Dapat ang lahat na Filipino ina-api ay handa rin.Huwag tayong magpasilo sa matutulis na kuko ng demonyong Gloria.